Members Daily Post: 04/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Hamilton

3.30 –

Gulf of Poets (all hncps) H3 11/2 UP

Ionization (3yo+, + micro runs) 14,30  13/2 3rd 

Lat Hawill (micro runs) ES  I3  16/1 UP

Zoravan (micro runs)  ES 40/1 UP

4.00-

Davys Dilemma (3yo+) 14,30 H1  7/2 WON 3/1 (R4)>9/5

Leven (3yo+, micro hncp debut+runs) 14,30  8/1 UP

Tor (micro class) H3 I3 11/2 UP

4.30 –

Sharp Defence (3yo+, + micro runs) 14,30  13/2 WON 13/2>7/2

Highly Sprung (micro class) I1  12/1 UP

5.00- Joysunny (all hncps) 12/1 UP 11/2

5.30 –

Wee Jock (3yo+) H1 I3 11/10 WON 11/10

Cool Run Girl (micro 90 days) 16/1 3rd 16/1 (NOTEBOOK I THINK, given time off and raced right in the slop all the way. Wins in her at lowly level)

 

Brighton

2.45 – Welsh Inlet (4yo+) I3 11/1 UP

3.45 – Betsalottie (4yo+) I1 7/2 3rd 

5.15 – Super Julius (all hncps) 30  ES  H3 I3 G1  13/8 WON 5/4

 

Chepstow 

8.40 –

Henryhudsonbridge (all hncps) ES  20/1 UP 

Ya Jammeel (micro age) I3 G3 6/1 WON/Dead Heat  6/4 (dec price) 

9.10 –

Moojaned (all hncps) ES I3 G1 25/1

Sir Pass I Am (4yo+, + micro class) 5/1

Wordiness (4yo+) I3 11/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Stratford 

7.20 – Helium (micro going) 7/1 UP

7.50 – Aspecialpresent (all hncps) 25/1 UP

8.50 – The Black Squirrel (NHF) 2/1 UP

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 4/35,15p, +0.6) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 12/90, +25.1)

Hmm my flat picking continues to be a tad frustrating but it remains a test for a reason and I will stick with the main philosophy – mainly unexposed ones where there are reasons to think they may out-run their odds today. I am confident over time with that approach and I will keep plugging away. With that in mind…

 

5.00 Ham- Joysunny – 1 point win – 10/1 UP 11/2 (broke smartly and could have raced all the way up rail which may have helped..but to my eye horse hung right into the centre- may not have made a difference mind) 

8.40 Chept – Ya Jammeel – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) (was 6s,but NR as been pondering) WON/Dead Heat  6/4 

 

Joysunny….  I am taking a double price flyer on this one appreciating this softer surface. The straight course was riding slow enough yesterday and this is some cut. With rain overnight and showers through the day it could head more towards soft. That is the only thing she is doing differently really but her sire’s offspring perform best on soft, which intrigued me. On GF, 46/567 all flat runners, on Soft, 34/220. An 8 versus 15% win SR. I also like the fact she will be drawn near the rail- and young Nathan Evans is a canny rider. I hope he gets her out and bags it. We saw with Bronze Beau yesterday what that can do for a horse. It is a bit of a golden highway this week I think, and in recent meetings, and more so when damp. My thinking is that she hasn’t been putting down on GF properly, when push comes to shove, and she may like getting her toe in. If she doesn’t that is another point loaned back to the bookies. But she is 0/4 on the flat and should show something one day.

Ya Jammeel- Channon is in good enough nick at the moment and this one is 0/5,1p in his her career. He is having his third start of the season and for the yard. Most importantly is the fact they drop him in class here. He ran well on his stable/seasonal debut in a C5 at Haydock and there is a chance he ‘bounced’ NTO, possibly with the race coming too soon. With a bit more of a break here and in this basement grade we could be about to see more. Trainer and Jockey don’t have the best record in truth, 1/32,4p in total, but a few places recently and they seem to go well enough on the fancied ones.

I did dig out this gem though… Franny Norton/Chepstow/Class 6 … 25 bets / 8 wins / 12 places / +46 SP. Solid. Something to keep an eye on and if you are a HRB user maybe add that one into the portfolio to keep an eye on.

So, hopeful of a decent run from this one in a poor enough race.

 

Notes 

It will be painful viewing if either of the decent priced Shanahan horses dot up at Hamilton as after much deliberation I have left them… Leven- was just too poor the last day and having watched the video it looks like he has more of a decent ground action, flailing in soft as he did. Yes it was a curragh maiden but he was beat a long long way from home. And he was fancied/ran well in a fast ground maiden before that. The ground is the question here for me and it isn’t really a significant move in trip. Money really does talk for this owner/trainer and they know when to put it down. Any market move should be noted. He also gets first time blinkers here- trainer 1/14 in those 1st time up. They need to spark him up and I don’t think they are being used as a plan. There are also two progressive types taking out 50% of the market, one in form, the other ‘could be anything’ for Hugo – and boy are his horses flying now. Talked myself out of him.

As I did with Sharp Defence, who at around 13/2 I could just about swallow. He is 1/5,3p in his career and again a chance the race came too soon the last day, after the initial effort before that. He also raced up more up the centre of the track with those in front of him all closer to the rail. He wasn’t beaten far and a couple have come out and franked the form. I wondered if they may boot him out and try and bag the rail from his draw- they should do that. I don’t know if he has the speed to get out and hold it though. If he doesn’t he will have a wall of horses in front of him at some point. Again he is another with a major going question- his best runs seemingly with firm in the description. But it is more of an unknown. Another whose action wouldn’t inspire confidence that he would plough through the mud if it gets even softer. But, that is more an educated guess. You never really know until they try. The one above has at least tried and that didn’t go too well.

So, I have left those. Welsh Inlet caused me to pause also – he will need to be well placed these days but he is moving down in class again and back up in trip. I suspect he needs 8f these days. I also thought he may get his own way up front. Again a handful of more lightly raced ones, open to progress. But I wouldn’t want to be taking 13/8 about the fav- or any horse running at this track for the first time. It is very unique. He may dot up again mind.

 

The Elite Squad , as per the document below, clicked into a higher gear yesterday with 14/1 and 4/1 winners. 5 go to war today, 4 of which are massive prices. On paper not much to shout home about to my eyes but you never know! The likes of Lat Hawill will fall in at a price one day no doubt, esp as that mark continues to slide.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

4.00 Ham – Addicted To You

 

Course+Distance Specialists 

2.45 Bright-

Swilly Sunset (any odds)

Welsh Inlet (any odds, 9/1< best)

3.45 Bright 0 Master Of Heaven (any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Worth a flick through…

TTP Flat: ‘Advised Strategy’ Update: READ HERE>>> *

  • Info on 3 main strategies being monitored plus a further two others. I will keep these updated on a weekly basis.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Just flicking through the 9:10 Chepstow, if Moojaned isn’t winning today then might be one to catch NTO. Being dropped in trip from 2m+ (both codes) he has a record of 11125 with the wins at 8/1, 10/1 & 12/1. Could be interesting if this happens again

    thisisjonnoo 04/07/17 10:28 AM Reply


    • Good spot. Yep second run for the yard also, suspect they will get him onto the winners’ enclosure at some point. He has only tried 2m on the flat turf once- it is too early to say he doesn’t stay, albeit niggle is that he doesn’t. Unproven though. But yes will be interesting to watch- may be back there a couple from home before fading. Mark down a couple again, bit more fitness in the legs, drop in trip NTO, win! We shall see.

      Josh 04/07/17 10:41 AM Reply


  • Bet365 going 14/1 Tangolan 4.10 Perth(won this last year).9/1 is nearest price,they might caught with their pants down

    gearoid180468 04/07/17 5:36 PM Reply


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