No system qualifiers.
There won’t be any ‘tips’, reserved as they are for 3m+ handicap chases in general.
From the Members’ Post… some more ‘bets of the day’ – which is my subjective interpretation of the initial stats qualifiers… (I am due some losers now after that weekend! 🙂 )
Bet of The Day… (test) (Flat: 4/31,15p, +4.6) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 12/86, +29.1)
5.00 Ponte – Inspector Norse – 1 point win – 8/1
7.45 Ham – Mister Belvedere – 1 point win – 7/2
9.00 Wind- Inlawed – 1 point win – 14/1
9.15 Ham- Princess Nearco – 1 point win – 20/1
Inspector Norse… lightly raced enough for his age, 2/17, I was just tempted in on this third start of the season. Back in 2014 he was rated 75 for old connections and has tumbled down the weights. LTO was the first time he has showed anything for a while really and it could be he is hitting some form. That was a C6 but it does mean he gets a stone less on his back here in actual weight, which may help. It is his third run of the season and could be now that he reaches peak fitness. And it is his first run at Pontefract and the way he runs to me suggests that he may like the climb to the line here. He is drawn wide so will need to get out/and or get a decent position. But his jockey has done well in her career to date. One day he will make mince meat of this mark I suspect. This angle is also one that was very close to becoming an ‘elite squad’ member but I was strict with that interpretation. Before this season T Easterby was 8/34,14p in 3yo+ handicaps. At 8/1 I was happy to throw a dart.
Mister Belvedere… god help us all as I dip to an end of the market where I have a questionable record…I hope this one pays for/covers the rest and if I just had to back one today it would be him. I think this price is just about ok, given the profile- and it is one that has and will find us plenty of winners moving forward. Every box is ticked… unexposed/some decent form already in book/running well/3rd start of season so no fitness excuses/trainer in red hot form and he is doing something different- moves up in distance by 2f, and at a track with a climb to the line.. that is the reason he could chew this lot up and spit them out- and could have a chunk in hand. He may not stay of course, breeding suggests he should relish this- as does the way he has run the last twice over shorter. Him and Warp Factor (will probably do me now but more exposed,but a chance) are both quite a way clear on the geegeez speed figures also. He should run his race.
Inlawed.. I couldn’t resist 14/1 here. He is 0/6,2 places in his career. Unexposed and at some point there should be more to come. So, why should we see an improved performance today.. well he moves up in distance by 2f and to my eye looks to be crying out for a longer trip. He has been out-paced in his runs over 6f. The last day I think the level of oppo- class 4, and the 6f on GF, just took him off his feet. He drops back in class here to a track where he has placed/run well twice previously. There is some pace on paper also. I would like to see some support and at this stage the market is indicating it may not be today. But there is enough there to go on. Unexposed/up in trip/down in class/returns to a track where he has run well/excuses for LTO/ran ok run before that/ 14/1. Bet.
Princess Nearco.. well I don’t think she is going to win this. But I don’t think she should be 20/1, I can’t resist that price, and on paper you wouldn’t fall off your seat if she did go close. Again another unexposed one making the 4th start of her life and on handicap debut. The trainer doesn’t do too well with handicap debutants but he is 1/20,3 places, so has had a winner. And only 0/1 at the track where he has most of his runners I think. Trainer and jockey are 0/17,1p also, most of those on big priced ones it seems. But, the horse moves up in trip by a furlong at a stiff track. And it is her second start of the season and should come on fitness wise for LTO. At 20s there is enough there. Hopeful rather than expectant. And if she doesn’t win with any luck Amy Blair may for the ‘Elite Squad’.
GL with any bets.