Free Daily Post: SAT 01/07/17 (complete)

Hmm. Not much to report from the three darts on Friday. One ran ok, the other two may still be running for all I know.

No ‘big races’ in focus on Saturday. I have no enthusiasm to play on the AW at Newcastle so will leave that to others.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers

3.15 Newm- Richard Pankhurst (any odds)

3.40 Curr – Tony The Gent (any odds)

 

**

Horse Of Interest…

For now there is just one below which has caught my eye for a few reasons. There may be more to come, or I may put up some qualifiers from the Members’ post for the Curragh and Mark Johnston- who if he repeats the stats for the last 3 years in July will make me very happy indeed! 

6.40 Lingfield- Astute Boy – 14/1 (general)

Mr Vaughan is 3/13,5 places with handicap debutants in the last two years, +17. 3/6 in the last year alone. A change in approach maybe. Now, they are 0/8,2 places at this track, which is maybe a negative but at least two have placed. The horse steps up in trip by 5 furlongs or so which also caught the eye. Trainer is 1/5,4 places when moving horses in trip significantly (20%+ from last run) He is also 4/13,7 places with horses returning after 60+ days at Lingfield on both the AW and Turf tracks – 2/6,3p on the latter. Finally, his horses are going well enough – 3/9,4 places in the last 30 days. So, there is plenty there I think at a double figure price. To use two well worn phrases of mine, he is ‘doing something different’ (well a few things) and he ‘could be anything’. Oh and the trainer is 5/22,10 places with 3 year olds at the course. Clearly he will now tail in last but my money is down! Hopefully there is money for him.

**

Members’ Post… below I have repeated a chunk from today’s Members’ post. As always it’s a mix of well researched trainer angles (on paper at least!), my opinion and starting points to help you make your own punting decisions. Long term profit, fun/entertainment and personal development is the aim (we can all be better punters, and it’s fun to try and progress together)…

We shall see if there are any winners in this little lot…

From the Members’ Post…

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 4/29,15p, +6.6) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 12/84, +31.1) *

*This is where I look through the stats qualifiers against my stats packs in section 1 of the daily posts and pick out what I like best. Very subjective. Often wrong. But the profit level above is ok. Still in ‘test’ mode and we shall see if a 35% ROI can be maintained…

 

3.55 Windsor- Desert God – 1 point win 10/1 – (PP/BV/SJ/Betstars)

I don’t know what to say about this one other than he ‘could be anything’ He was a star in India, winning their Derby and numerous other races worth a fair old chunk of cash. I’ll be honest – I don’t know the Indian racing scene very well. I couldn’t tell you if winning the Indian Derby is like winning a C3 at Yarmouth! I have no idea. In that scenario you want a price, and we get that here. He could be rated a few pounds too high, he could actually be very good and hack up. I think you can make excuses for his Dubai runs. The market will no doubt guide. Richard Hughes is in the form of his training career to date- 8/32,15p last 14 days, 14/66,29 last 30. He is 3/28 with flat handicappers returning after 60+ days off but of some interest is 2/4 with those types at Windsor. At 10/1 there is enough juice there to roll the dice, and roll it I shall.

5.00 Windsor- Funky Footsteps – 1 point win – 12/1 (WH/BetF/BV/SJ)

It is hard to resist this one at a double figure price on just the 6th start of her life. Her run the last day was a bit underwhelming but it was her first start of the season and she looked a tad keen through the first part of the race. I also don’t know what her best going is – she won her novice on soft and maybe connections thought that’s what she wanted. Her next two starts on a decent surface didn’t go well but one was a C2 and it could be the trip, on that going, did for her. She looks like she may well stay further than this in time and her breeding would suggest as much. They return to a track where she ran an ok race last season, fading in the last 75 yards over 1/2 furlong further than today. It could be she didn’t pick up in the ground also. Anyway, there is a bit to go on. She is unexposed and could/should be fitter than for last time out. She was 16/1 that day and wasn’t fancied by all accounts. It is hard to say she can’t get involved here. She may prove that she does need a deep surface but at 12s she is worth a dart for me.

Sayem- (stats pick, runs in same race) it would be typical for her to beat me here, and I may have a saver- but on balance I prefer the one above, and at the time of writing was generally around 4 points bigger. I don’t think they know what her best trip is. For me at Leicester two starts ago she looked to be out-stayed over 7f, albeit it was a C4. They then dropped her back in trip where she was sent of fav and didn’t run well. And now they step up back up another 2f to 8f. Trainer/Jockey are 0/15,7p in handicaps, maybe they are due a winner and there could be some pace for JS to aim at. She is unexposed, so nothing would surprise, and is ‘doing something different’ in trying this trip for the first time. We shall see if I have ‘tipped’ the right one. Don’t let those thoughts put you off if you like her chance.

 

We have a few Curragh darts and the start of the Mark Johnston July experiment to interest us also…

 

AOB Curragh (NOTES HERE>>>>)

2.00-

Battle of Jericho (micro 2) 9/4

Fleet Review (micro 2) 10/1

US Navy Flag (notes) 8/1

4.10 – Asking (micro 1) 10/1

4.40 – Rostropovich (notes) 14/1

5.20 –

Capri (notes) 10/1

Taj Mahal (micro 1) 40/1

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds,bigger the better) *

3.05 York – Teofonic – 20/1

3.30 Newc – Jaameh – 11/1

4.00 Chest – Hochfeld – 4/1

*This angle has been 20/85, 38 places, +262 BFSP the last three years. +68 points profit on the BF place market. We shall see how they do over the next 4 weeks. 

That’s the lot for today.

GL with any bets.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Just spotted that Murillo from my horses to follow goes in the Railway Stakes 4.40 The Curragh. Ryan Moore up. Superb looking colt, probably too short for my purposes but good to watch. Looked like a group horse to me.
    Hugh

    alpha2 30/06/17 10:41 PM Reply


    • I have also just noticed Amourice at Newmarket 2.40 who is not in but could well qualify for my horses to follow list.
      Amourice – Very green, naughty, tall for a filly and stayed on again after being outpaced. Certainly potential to and beyond a maiden win. 78
      Trained by Jane Chapple Hyam wo I do not usually consider but this one ran vbery well in a hot maiden behind Glorious Journey and Grand Koonta and at 25/1 should be considered for a value e/w bet.
      Hugh

      alpha2 01/07/17 12:35 PM Reply


  • From yesterday…..

    3.30 pm Saturday
    Newcastle Northumberland Plate

    20 years – 374 runners

    Handicap runs, 1-4: 0/63
    Handicap wins, 1: 1/74
    Runs since placed, 3-4: 0/75
    Last run, Class 4/6: 0/37
    Days between last run and 2nd last run, NOT 11-75: 1/85

    10 years – 185 runners

    No win in last 5 runs: 1/69
    Distance runs, 4 or more: 0/53
    Handicap wins, 0-1: 0/58
    Last run, NOT top 3: 1/92
    Aged 7 or older: 1/39
    Last winning run: Class 4 or lower: 1/58

    Six pass through: 2/11/13/14/16/18

    2016 was first running on AW:
    3 of the first 4 had a previous AW win.
    4 of the first 5 had a previous AW place.

    W-P-UP (AW record)
    Higher Power 2-2-0
    Sir Chauvelin 0-0-1
    Jaameh 0-0-1
    Lord George 2-2-0
    My Reward 1-0-2
    Champagne Champ 0-2-1

    Higher Power (8/1) and Lord George (12/1) stand out.
    Also worth adding in Natural Scenery (10/1) IMO. Only failed on ‘LTO not top 3’ trend. Has an impressive 3-2-1 AW record including 3 wins from 3 for Josephine Gordon – latest one being over CD in Feb 2017.

    Chris Baxendale 30/06/17 11:36 PM Reply


    • Terrific stuff Chris…well done lad.
      Tony Mc

      tonymc 01/07/17 4:17 PM Reply


  • 3.40 Curragh 1m

    340 runners over 20 years:
    Last run, NOT 8-60 days: 1/72
    Last run, shorter than 1m: 0/85

    171 runners over 10 years:
    Career runs, NOT between 6 and 40: 0/39
    Last run, 4-10.5k prizemoney: 1/61
    Latest win, non-hcap: 1/60
    Latest win, 7f: 1/44

    Leaves: Katiymann 6/1 and Aussie Valentine 9/1

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 01/07/17 2:04 AM Reply


  • 4.10 Curragh 7f

    313 runners – 20 years

    Last run, further than 1m: 0/31
    Last five runs, NO top 2: 1/66
    More than 4 runs since win: 2/108
    Latest win in 8k-10.5K race: 1/55
    7f wins, 2 or more: 1/52
    Has run further than 1m2f: 0/40

    157 runners – 10 years
    Last run NOT 7f/1m: 1/47
    Last run ,not top 6 : 1/38

    Leaves Ventura Blues (10/1) and Truffles (16/1).

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 01/07/17 2:06 AM Reply


  • 1.50 Newcastle 6f

    20 years:
    Age, NOT 4-6: 1/92
    Days between LR and 2nd LR, >30 days: 1/54
    Class 2 or higher runs, >10: 2/103
    Class 2 or higher wins, >1: 0/53
    Class 2 or higher places, >4: 1/56
    6f runs, >25: 1/59

    10 years:
    Last race, NOT 6f/7f: 0/25
    Last win, more than 10.5k: 0/41

    Mazzini (7/1) and Robero (8/1) tick all the boxes.
    Al Qahwa, Canny Kool, The Commendatore miss out by just one who are much bigger prices.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 01/07/17 10:30 AM Reply


    • GL Chris, your sterling efforts deserve some reward! Josh

      Josh 01/07/17 12:45 PM Reply


      • I second that wholeheartedly Josh….I don’t know where you find the time and energy…
        BOL Chris.
        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 01/07/17 1:20 PM Reply


  • Thanks Chris (Higher Power)

    mojojojo 01/07/17 3:54 PM Reply


  • Team Racing To Profit have had it right off today haha. I’ve lost count of the winners. The only ‘downside’ was not ‘tipping’ Sayem but hope you may have had a saver! AOB angles winners 8/1 10/1 10/1, MJ July +2, 60+ day angle +7 on day. Nick chipping in as did Chris on free post. If I’ve missed others apologies. Saturdays don’t really get better than that. Hope you backed one or two of those. Or more. Wallop.

    Josh 01/07/17 6:12 PM Reply


  • Three for me tomorrow including two in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter. I presume that the bookies think Henlan Harri is a one trick pony or less he would be clear favourite for tomorrow. He won the Bet365 Gold Cup whilst 4lbs out of the handicap so tomorrow he is only 4lbs higher and this is an easier race. He has won off long break before so the lay-off should be an issue. Peter Bowen is arguably in better form now than he was two months ago. (you would be hard pressed to argue that there is a more inform jumps trainer). I suspect Sean would have had a choice about which of the Bowen runners he wanted to ride. The ground is fine. He should either lead or be up there with the pace. He is 1/2 at the track. I want a saver on Gentleman Jon (last year’s saver was Drop Out Joe) who looks very big considering he is one of very few who has won at this level and is now 3lbs below his last winning mark in the Badger Ales in October. Tizzard who is such a shrewd operator, has been fiddling with the equipment and now puts the tongue tie back on to go with the blinkers he added last time out. He also enlists the services of Paddy Brennan who has won on the horse before. 33/1 looked too big for a horse who if bringing his A game looks to have a better chance than half the field.

    Moving back to the flat I want to have a bet on Murad Khan. After a terrible first 3 months to the season Hugo Palmer is finally in form with 6 winners and 8 places from his last 13 runners. When interview by Mark Howard he thought this horse would end up as a stakes horse. Since his last run he has been gelded and they now put a hood as he drops down into a class 2. I would expect him to go very close.

    nickmazur 01/07/17 9:46 PM Reply


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