Free Daily Post: 28/06/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds)

5.40- Wootyhoot UP

(reminder that this angle is 47/133,81 places (inc wins), +151 SP since 2010. many are well punted and taking a price is advisable)

**

A trip to Ireland today for a couple of Geegeez Gold Stats Snippets…

 

5.50 Naas- Mojambo – 8/1 – UP goes for Ger Lyons here who is 6/20,8p with his 1st time starters at the track in the last 5 years, worth +18 SP. The market may well guide with this one and AOB is triple handed. But, he can ready them, and this is one of the tracks he targets with such types.

Of more interest maybe..

8.20 Naas –

Jigsaw- 10/1– UP 5th  goes for AOB here on handicap debut. He is 7/21,10 places with handicap debutants at the track, +16 SP. Solid. A slight move up in distance and the headgear returns. She ran ok the last day and more of a stamina test could suit. It could be she is useless but those are the stats.

Always Dancing – 12/14th runs in the same race and another for Ger Lyons. He is 2/10,5p with handicap debutants at the track, with an overall record with such types in the last two years of 11/53,20 places, +25. Again this one moves up in trip slightly and we could see more today.

 

We shall see how they all get on.

GL with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • 3.00 Carlisle Cumberland Plate 1m3f

    20 years- 314 runners.

    LR top 4: 17/178 (10%) as opposed to 3/126 (2%)
    Last three runs NO top 3 : 0/63
    Max. win 1m1f or shorter : 0/20

    10 years-154 runners.

    Ran 1m3f, 2 times or more: 0/19

    Nothing too exciting trends wise but applying the above leaves us with:

    Energia Fox 20/1, West Drive 5/1 and Swaheen 14/1.
    Sky look to be shorter but going 5 places.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 27/06/17 6:40 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Chris, do enjoy reading these snippets.

      Josh 27/06/17 7:38 PM Reply


  • Nice to get a winner today although a shame about the rule 4. Two for me tomorrow. Firstly I think King’s Pavilion brings the best form to the table in the 15:30 at Carlisle. Two starts ago he finished 1.6 lengths 5th behind the likes of George William (placed in both the Spring and Victoria Cups) and GK Chesterton (won a class 4 and a class 2 and is now rated 13 lbs higher). NTO he was sent off favourite at Ayr. The winner of that race has finished 2nd in a Listed race and 2nd in a class 2 off 8lbs higher, the 2nd has won a class 4 and a class 2 off 7lbs higher and the 3rd has also won since. He drops back into a class 4 for the first time in almost 2 years. All his best runs last year in class 2/3 races was done with cut in the ground so you would expect him to improve for the softer ground. He has rarely ran a bad race going right handed (1/5, 3p with a further close 5th in a class 2). I think its notable that Barron has employed Ben Curtis (who is riding out of his skin right now) who arguably rides Carlisle better than anyone (11/37, 15p +59 in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years). The draw could be better however there isn’t a massive amount of pace on and high drawn runners have done OK in this race.

    I also think Cottersrock looks big in the 15:50 at Worcester. Spent most of the winter in chasing against some of the better novices (did actually beat the likes of Bigbadjohn) before returning to hurdling in March. I can forgive him that run given he ran in the consolation race for all the horses which are too well handicapped to get into Cheltenham. He has now dropped to 2lbs above his last hurdle win which also happened to be the only other time Aidan Coleman has been on board. He is 2/2 in class 3 races worth less than £10k. He generally seems to run better of a break so the lay-off shouldn’t be an issue. Trainer and jockey are 4/18, 12p +18.5 in handicaps so when they team up they usually mean business.

    nickmazur 27/06/17 9:50 PM Reply


    • I like King’s Pavilion too Nick and Carnageo….who will relish the slower ground.

      tonymc 28/06/17 12:27 PM Reply


      • Well done Tony. My main tipster tipped up Carnageo and my stakes on his tips are twice as big so I guess I cant complain with 2nd.

        nickmazur 28/06/17 3:35 PM Reply


      • Hope you did the forecast Tony! One of the great hindsight bets haha. Well done Nick, good tip in second. Not sure if unlucky albeit raced a tad wider for little longer than winner.

        Josh 28/06/17 3:36 PM Reply


        • No i didn’t Josh…blast!…but that was close….I took KP early and took an EW….

          I did miss Mick Channon’s 2yo at 25/1…bottled it and went for the 3rd.
          Scheize! lol

          tonymc 28/06/17 3:40 PM Reply


        • The draw was the main concern and was probably the difference between 1st and 2nd although I haven’t seen the race. No doubt he will be winning a similar sort of race on this sort of ground (even up to a class 2 worth less than £20k) at some point this season although the price might be lacking NTO.

          nickmazur 28/06/17 3:48 PM Reply


  • 3.30 Carlisle Bell Handicap 1m

    20 years – 321 runners.

    Aged 7 or older: 1/77
    Last ran more than 33 days ago: 0/38
    More than 4 career wins: 1/118
    Last ran at 1m2f or further: 0/35

    10 years-156 runners

    Career runs, NOT 11-40: 1/53
    Career wins, NOT 2-4: 1/79
    Handicap runs, NOT 11-35: 0/77
    Handicap wins, NOT 1-4: 0/58
    Class 4 or higher wins, NOT 0-1: 0/58
    Latest win, further than 1m: 1/48

    Passing through unscathed, I think: Intensical (12/1) and Strong Steps (25/1).

    Few close calls including: Briyouni, Pensax Boy, Kings Pavillion and Zorovan.

    Preference from those for Zorovan at 25/1 whose trainer Keith Dalgleish had the 25/1 winner last year as well as 13/2 winners and 33/1 2nd within the past 4 years.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 27/06/17 9:51 PM Reply


  • Nick M, nice pick with T Easterby and Poets Dawn on Tuesday. I presume you have been and come back from the WSOP? Keep up the good work.

    A good write up by Peter Walker as well, albeit resulting in a non runner. Thanks for putting in the effort. You should give it a good go and see what happens. As others know on this site I was a pro punter for two years previously and then went back to work 18 months ago and became a part time punter. I return to the pro ranks again in August. My wife is being supportive albeit she would prefer if I continued to have a proper job. You need to give it a minimum six months, really 12 months. Good luck and if you need any help or support just post here.

    martin colwell 27/06/17 9:55 PM Reply


    • Yeah been back for a week or so. The less said about the results the better although did get my first ever Hendon Mob flag in the states which was nice.

      nickmazur 27/06/17 9:59 PM Reply


  • Hi Martin / any other pro players,
    I’m interested to know how you guys get your money on if you’ve packed in your jobs?
    Over the past 5 or so years especially, finding winners is only half the battle. Accounts are readily restricted just by beating the SP never mind backing a winner. How do you guys keep accounts alive? Friends / family? Dash round the shops? Duff acca bets now and again?
    Thanks!

    Chris Baxendale 27/06/17 10:36 PM Reply


    • Well… I have 27 online accounts plus 8 that have been closed. I spread bets around and so if I were to bet £200 I may well spread it around 4 or 5 bookmakers. I also bet in cash two days a week. I get in my car and go to a town in Kent that has an high street with 5 or more betting shops and spread it around. I appreciate that this is dependent on where you live. I also get others to put bets on with me who do not live near me or have the same surname. Secrets out!

      martin colwell 28/06/17 3:41 PM Reply


  • 3.40 Salisbury Bibury Cup 1m4f

    158 runners over 20 years

    Last three runs, NO top 2 : 0/18
    Career wins, NOT 1-2: 0/22
    No previous wins 0/19
    Previous places 4-5: 0/20

    10 years-73 runners

    Yet to run over 1m4f: 1/36 (9/37 had)
    Runs in last 90 days, NOT 2-3: 0/19
    Career placed runs, NOT 1-3 : 0/15
    Last run, not 1m2f or 1m4f: 0/19
    Last winning run, prizemoney 4k-10.5k: 1/23

    Only one to pass through is Stone The Crows (6/1). Nice to know trainer Roger Charlton is 2 from 4 in this race albeit the winners are a few years ago.
    Here And Now (15/8) looks solid enough – missing out due to latest run being over 1m4.5f- especially as Beckett has had 2 winners and a 3rd from 3 runners in the last 10 years.

    Chris Baxendale 28/06/17 3:19 AM Reply


  • 4.40 Salisbury 1m

    20 years – 203 runners

    Wins over shorter than 1m, more than 2: 0/27
    Latest 5 runs, NO top 4: 0/19
    Runs since win, 3-4: 0/48
    Career runs, more than 40 : 0/26

    10 years – 98 runners

    Latest 5 runs, NO top 3: 0/13
    More than 2 handicap wins: 1/39
    Last win, Class 4: 0/37

    Many miss out by just one, but 2 pass all, i think: Storm Rock (11/1) and White Tower (18/1). Another positive for Storm Rock is those who had their latest run on the AW have a 20% strike rate.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 28/06/17 3:22 AM Reply


  • A day of interest for me with three horses to follow running. First at Salisbury in the 3.10 Another Day of Sun goes for a follow up win. We have had his win after this was posted but I think his chances are being under-estimated although how he and the hot favourite will handle the ground is an unknown presuming that it will be soft.
    At Kempton, Cosmopolitan Queen and Polar Light both go for David Elsworth. Comments in the analysis below. Mr Elsworth does not seem to target Kempton with 2yos and both these are bigger models who were very green on debut so I am not brimful of confidence but both have to be supported as ‘To Follow’ picks.

    June Kempton 6f Novice
    4.25 Makanah
    3.75 Rebel Streak, Cosmopolitan Queen
    3.5
    3.25
    3 Encrypted
    2.75 Mearing, Yaafour
    2.5
    2.25 El Borracho, Final Rock
    2 Hornby
    Preview – Difficult to be hugely confident about Cosmopolitan Queen given how green she was on debut as well as the strong support for Encrypted and Makanah. Like Polar Light she may well need more time but as she is to follow she will have to be backed.

    Prior race notes
    El Borracho – Decent size, tall, strongly made. Short of fitness. 67
    Encrypted – Top end of small, dynamic Palmer ball of muscle type that often go well on debut, particularly here. Jinked left then went too fast early. Probably the market got carried away. 76.
    Cosmopolitan Queen – Big, tall, strong filly. Coat not come through and daft as a brush throughout the prelims. Here for an educational but I suspect Mr Elsworth and Jeff Smith have something planned for this girl. Possibly a bit gawky at present but some frame to fill out and a cooks bum. Wasted lots of energy beforehand rearing and prancing in the pre parade and paddock as well as at the start. Still shaped well staying on at the death. 80 possibly more.

    28th June Kempton 7f Fillies Nov
    4.25 Camomile Lawn
    3.75 Glaceon
    3.5

    3.25 Codicil, First Drive, Polar Light, Zoraya
    3 Laura Knight, Miss Mo Brown Bear
    2.75
    2.5
    2.25
    2
    Preview – This looks an interesting race. Polar Light is one of my horses to follow but whether she will be quite ready to compete over 7f yet is open to question. Being by Norse Dancer she may need a mile. I won’t be going all in as on top of her breeding she was also very green on debut in Folk Tale’s Newmarket race but on appearance she is definitely worth an e/w stake.

    Prior race notes
    Polar Light – Tall, athletic, only about 80% fit. Still a bit rough in his coat. Looks like he needs 7f minimum but considerable potential. 82
    Glaceon – Nicest model in the paddock. Taller than the others, lower medium, more athletic, about 90% tuned. 75
    Glaceon – Definitely lacking a bit of quality. Possibly over-rated in a moderate field fto. 73
    Miss Mo Brown Bear – Poor picture, my impression was of an ok type, green in the pre-lims for a Hannon runner and likely to do better than a lot of these. Some size about her, possibly medium. 73
    Hugh

    alpha2 28/06/17 8:54 AM Reply


  • No Claimers today and the next opportunity is Friday.
    So will be back then.

    Yesterdays Review
    The e/w selection Blue Book was a non runners which was a shame because as the race panned out he would have had a fair chance.

    The ground turned soft and it scuppered Cul an Ti chances as she was well down the field
    and on the rain affected ground is a non stayer at the trip.

    Tenth Amendments connections obviously though the trip may be an issue
    as he was held up well off the pace and was only put in the race late on and by then it was to late

    I think he got the trip ok and on better ground in the same sort of grade would be a contender.

    Machine head tried to be up there early but was taken on by the winner and sonic wave
    and he run himself into the ground and dropped right out.
    The horse is slow and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stepped up to 12 furlongs plus
    or even sent hurdling.

    As in the Wolverhampton race won by Alfonso the form book was thrown out the window
    and the winner was rated well behind Tenth Amendment and looked
    to have little chance but connections knew better and she was backed from big early prices down to 13/2.

    Three year old claimers are the toughest races to forecast as horses can win off the back of terrible form and low ratings because they can improve as they mature or step up in trip.

    The record of the advices so far are 1 no bet and 1 non runner so no movement from the opening balance.

    Hope everyone does well in the next few days and will be back on The Friday with analysis of the
    claimer at Chester(7.45pm).
    An all age race that should offer better opportunities.
    Pete

    Peter Walker 28/06/17 9:16 AM Reply


  • I truly admire the knowledge and research put forth in this page….. All the posters i find have an admirable propensity for research…. I once upon a time would stay up until well into the night before computers were around to help….but now i don’t have the energy or time….. I love reading, and oft times have a tickle on the selections my peers suggest….. So a big truly ‘Well Done’ to all of you and Josh of course for pulling a rare genuinely honest blog together.

    I wish you the best of luck if going pro; I tried many years ago but even the shops had me spotted, so i went back to the day job so to speak. I did however know another guy who would share now and then…His way was to have about 10 runners to place his bets. Their bonus was to place the same bet for themselves a few minutes later in a different shop. The 10 would rotate shops so to lessen the impact of placing winning bets. last time i saw him he’d retired and actually done well….with just occasional wagers now.

    BOL lads….. keep ’em coming!

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 28/06/17 11:29 AM Reply


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