Members Daily Post: 27/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Beverley 

2.30-

Deansgate (3yo+) 14,30 11/1 UP

Murdanova (3yo+) I1 12/1

Dutch Artist (micro TJC) ES I3 12/1 UP

3.00- Lean On Pete (4yo+, + micro class) 6/1 WON 7/1

3.30- Sunglider (4yo+, + micro TJC) ES I3 G3 9/2 WON 4/1

 

Brighton

2.45 – Welsh Inlet (micro runs) ES 13/2 UP 14/1

5.15 – Halling’s Wish (micro distance) I3 6/1 UP

 

Leicester

None. 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

No Inform Speed Ratings for NA today it seems…

Newton Abbot

8.00-

Tricky (hncp hurdle) ES 7/2 UP

Moojaned (hncp hurdle)

Scorpion Star (micro going + age) 10/1 UP

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/24,12p, -0.2) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 10/79, +23.3)

 

No ‘tips’ as such.

I am in one of my indecisive frame of minds.. two things nagging at me.. firstly there is plenty of rain around and as I write I am literally guessing as to the going come this afternoon/evening. That is never a great place to be as a punter. All tracks appear to be expecting some rain. It may arrive, it may not. It may be heavy, it may not. The ground could be good to firm, or could turn soft! Tricky. It is also low grade fair with inconsistent animals, and the last time I played at Brighton for example I got a bloody nose.

No tips as such but three horses looked interesting to my eye… Deansgate- a frustrating horse who is a 16 runner maiden, although 7 of those were in maidens including LTO. The only real change from anything recent is the trainer form- they are going well, 3/12,7p last 30 days, 1/5,3p last 14. Strange things can happen when a string is firing and it may be just enough for him to get his head in front. Numerous placed efforts would put him in the mix here. I have no idea if he would handle any cut. The race set up seems a positive also with a bit of pace to aim at.

In the same race there is the inconsistent Dutch Artist- an ES qualifier his recent form doesn’t fill you with confidence and the race he won here a couple of starts back hasn’t worked out well. 15 other horses have run since, 1 place between them. But is is OMeara and it is a lowly level. This is probably easier than recent starts.

Murdonova also runs and I want to see him prove that he is a C5 animal. I have added him to the tracker as on the AW in C6 he is now 3/4,4p,+49.. C5 0/9,2p. He is still young enough mind but it may pay to wait until he next runs in a C6, esp on the sand.

Part of me things Bridger/Carson may have a good day and one of Welsh Inlet or Fairy Mist (Jockey qual below) going in. Neither will mind any rain i don’t think, both with decent efforts in softer conditions. I thought Welsh Inlet may get the lead here and try and make all. With Carson back up that’s a positive. 4/9,5p on turf OR 60 or below. Fairy Mist isn’t getting any younger but this isn’t a great bunch and a repeat of that placed effort over CD a couple of starts back puts her in the mix. And she ran ok at Goodwood to a point.

I am a bit on the fence. Given their profiles it is hard to be overly confident, at the same time there are reasons why they may go close. Do with those notes as you please.

 

 

June Trainers 

None.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

none.

4. Micro System Test Zone 

Some of you may have read a discussion on De Bromhead and various micro angles etc. Last November I wrote a monthly research piece looking at Irish Jumps racing. (you can find all those old articles etc HERE>>> needs updating)  I have been back through it and pulled out three angles to follow around De Bromhead (June/July August- missed the boat a tad there)/Doyle and Morris. I will post those here. 

I have also spent a fair bit of today pulling together a Members report on ‘jockey course and distance specialists’, inspired by Jamie Spencer/Ascot. I need to tidy it up a bit but will post up the link tomorrow.

So, this can become a sort of live testing area. I will try and ensure there are not too many qualifiers etc as you can have too much information. The flat jockeys average around 80 bets a flat season, one every three days or so I think. Of course you can just ignore them and wait to see how they develop. So there will be the three Irish angles, The Flat Turf CD specialists and I may pull together a handful for the AW- there was some strong data there when looking earlier. Of course if you flick through any of those articles in the link above and want me to pull anything else out, do say so.

Flat Jockeys CD

3.00 Bev- Stun Gun (any odds) 11/1 UP 25/1

4.45 Bright- Fairy Mist (9/1< best, 1/25,5p bigger) 8/1 UP 7/1

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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