Free Daily Post: 27/06/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo– Live Test

7.30 NA- Butlergrove King (16/1<)

 

**

A tricky day ahead what with the weather forecasts. It is a bit hard to know what the ground will be come race time/through the cards etc.

In the 5.30 Beverley I thought TINSILL 20/1 may be of interest EW IF it turns soft. Which, it could do. He is one of the few in here with proven soft ground form and also likes to race prominently. He ran well enough on his penultimate start in soft. Many in here may not handle softening ground and he may be worth a small interest. Of course the going may not change at all if they only get a light shower.

That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • From the other day…

    Fahey has shown to do well with his fancied (<25/1) handicap runners at Leicester/Nottingham/Warwick over 6f-1m1f.
    This year he is now 4/15,+4 BFSP, 2016: 9/41 +50, 2015:11/33 +77, 2014: 6/28 +18.

    He has one such runner today : 9.15 Leicester ,Springforth, 8/1 available.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 26/06/17 9:30 PM Reply


  • A couple for me tomorrow neither of which should mind any rain given the breeding. Both horses have come out of extremely hot races and look overpriced at double figure odds. First in the 14:00 at Beverley I want to be on Poets Dawn. The 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th from his last race have won since with the 9th and 11th also placing. (if you look at the record of horses from that race running in class 5s since you get 4/8, 6p +24.5) The step up to 7.5f should suit according to breeding. With the front two taking out a huge chunk of the market he makes a nice e/w bet. I just hope there isn’t any non-runners tomorrow. Given the jockey booking you would think he is the stable first choice. Easterby is in arguably his best form all season with 5 winners in the past week including at Royal Ascot.

    I also want a bet on Venetian Proposal in the 19:10 at Leicester. Another one to come out of a hot race with the 2nd, 7th, 8th and 9th having all won since (out of only 6 total runs). Her run last time out would suggest that a step up to a mile should suit. She gets a chunk in weight from 1/3 of the field as a 3yr old. Whilst they were all over jumps trainer a win and 2 places from her 3 visits to the track this year. (even more eye-catching given they don’t have a great strike rate overall) Would expect her to go close off a feather weight.

    nickmazur 26/06/17 9:37 PM Reply


    • GL Nick, solid reasoning and an interesting read as always.

      Josh 27/06/17 8:51 AM Reply


    • the 5th also won yesterday

      jamesm 27/06/17 11:30 AM Reply


      • Darn that’s one that I somehow missed yesterday even if it adds to the race form for today. I would have an e/w nibble on Shamaheart if the ground doesnt end up worse than good (as of an hour ago it was still good/firm). The fact that the trainer has booked Clifford Lee (2 2nds from his only 2 rides for the trainer) makes me think that he is ready to get back to winning ways and he as was already very well treated before the jockey’s 5lb claim.

        nickmazur 27/06/17 1:29 PM Reply


        • Wallop- ‘hot form’ and more importantly your interpretation of it, strikes again! easy as you like really, well in command final 1/2.

          Josh 27/06/17 2:04 PM Reply


          • Good spot Nick. Great write up. Got on at 14s but rule 4. However great awareness as usual. Thanks mate.

            John 27/06/17 2:09 PM Reply


          • Thanks guys. Out of all the different methods I have used to pick horses, checking the Hot race tool on HRB ideally on a daily basis seems to have worked the best this year. (Two year old maidens are definitely about as far from my usual MO as you can get )

            nickmazur 27/06/17 2:26 PM Reply


    • Nick-top work my man!!
      Was going to back them all each way for small-but instead I done a patent on your two and Fahey runner in 9.15.Hope one of the others can place at least.
      Well done mate-hope u had a good bet on it!

      Mick Durcan 27/06/17 2:10 PM Reply


    • Well done, Nick! Just the return your cracking write up deserved!

      Chris Baxendale 27/06/17 3:23 PM Reply


    • DANCE KING WILL WIN TOMORROW

      Thomas Murphy 27/06/17 9:34 PM Reply


      • Well done Thomas a a big statement but on the button. Took a stab due to your bold statement. Keep them coming.
        Mike

        mickeydee 28/06/17 3:19 PM Reply


  • King of the Claimers article

    5.50 Ballinrobe 1m1.5f
    3 year old maiden claimer

    As yesterday another tricky three year old claimer with a lot of unknown factors in the equation.

    Cul an Ti has an official rating of 66 and with her riders 7lb claim carries only 8st 1lb.

    The Favourite Tenth amendment rated 73 carries 9st 5lbs so on official ratings Cul an Ti
    looks the better horse at the weights.

    She is also well clear of other market rivals Blue Book and Machine Head and on pure figures looks to have a big chance.

    As always in this type of race there is more than meets the eye because she was equally clear in the ratings
    when only 6th at Roscommon behind Blue book (5th) and Machine Head (2nd).

    Machine Head is bred to be a stayer out of Paddy O Prado so the soft ground at Roscommon certainly helped him.

    The ground is much faster tonight and with no obvious front runners in the field
    it would make sense for Machine Head to go on and try and run the finish out of the doubtful stayers.

    Cul An Ti is by the sprinter Sir Prancealot and it is no surprise that her best form was on good ground at
    Fairythouse.

    A slowly run race wouldn’t hurt her chances but if the race is run slowly it will also play into the hands of
    The favourite who is the quickest in the field but totally unproven at this trip.

    Blue Book represent last years winning trainer Jessica Harrington and although outstayed by
    Machine Head on very soft ground ran a very respectable third last time against a horse
    who has won again since

    Kupa River is unraced and starting a three year old in a Maiden claimer doesn’t bode well
    so although he is worth keeping an eye on in the market this type of horse isn’t playable

    Sonic Wind,Markus Twain, All the Mollies and Jack Baur all have masses to find on the ratings
    and although three year olds can suddenly improve nothing in the form book indicates any of these four will.

    Summary
    Tight little race with question marks over all the runners
    Tenth Amendment is the fastest horse but 7/4 about a horse who is unproven over 10 furlongs
    doesn’t scream bet.
    His breeding suggest he could be ok at this trip but the price isn’t appealing

    Cul an Ti at 100/30 with Paddy Power holds some appeal and back on faster ground could
    go well but having Sir Prancealot as her sire suggests that she may struggle stamina wise
    if the race is run at a decent gallop.
    When she was beaten out of sight behind Machine Head and Blue Book
    she caved in in the last Furlong and while todays race is on much faster ground
    if Machine Head sets a strong gallop she may find it hard to win.

    Machine Head has to make it a stamina test to have a chance on this ground
    and could set the race up for the improving Blue Book who may have a bit more pace than
    him and more Stamina the Tenth Amendment.

    SELECTION
    1 Point E/W Blue Book 5/1 with bet365.
    This looks an each way bet to nothing against two horses who could have stamina issues and another who may lack the pace on the ground.

    Yesterdays Review
    Peachey Carnahan ran to form and finished a fair 2nd but a horse who’s previous form was
    inferior improved past him.
    Alfonso Manana had finished behind Five Star frank earlier in the season but finished well clear of that one
    in this race.
    A wise move not to play because the market said everything about this race
    the strong form horse drifted from 7/4 to 5/2 at the off
    and the two improvers were backed into 11/4( the winner) and 5/2jf(five Star frank in 4th).
    The Fact that Alfonso was put in at a bigger claiming price than Peachey Was a clue but
    nothing form wise backed that up.

    peter walkker 27/06/17 9:12 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Peter, a good read. Enjoying it already..
      Next time, I would just move SELECTION right to the top, under the race time etc. Only for ease of reference for anything in a rush etc. The rest can then follow. I like the review element. Top work. Good luck.

      Josh

      Josh 27/06/17 10:07 AM Reply


      • Makes sense will do.
        Thanks for the feedback.
        I am quite pleased with the analysis but the proof of the pudding!

        I believe anyone can have a winner or even a series of winners but the proof
        of a good business is being ahead of the game long term.

        I have noticed from newspapers naps competitions
        that only about 33-40% of tipsters are in profit
        and each year it is a different group.

        I doubt if there are any in the black over the last 10 years combined.
        of course they have to put up something everyday but it just shows it isn’t any easy game to crack.

        I think a service must show a profit on 3 plus years trading to be considered a worthy business
        That is why I like only 1 or 2 point bets as a lot of tipsters and punters for that matter
        go bigger stakes when down to blast in front.

        it is easy to go 5 point win on a 6/4 chance when the first 6 1 point tips have all got beat and
        claim a 1.5 points profit.

        Of course if the big stakes bets also lose followers can see clearly that the service is iffy but by that time
        they are 11 points down and they have lost their betting money and their subs and it leaves a sour taste.

        I work on a three options per race.
        1 A race offering no edge no bet
        2 A race hard to be dogmatic about but enough doubts about a few of the fancied runners to play
        either 1 point win or 1 point e/w
        3 A race were a horse really appeals at its price 2 point win.

        With so few claiming races to analyse I have no excuse for cutting corners
        and feel I can do them justice.
        even when people specialise in one type of race be it handicap chases
        non handicap hurdles, Bumpers or whatever other race that ticks your personnel boxes.
        There are still dozens of races to play in and I think less is more when it comes to form study

        peter walker 27/06/17 10:40 AM Reply


        • Hi Peter,
          Good to see this thread. One of my rules has been never bet in sellers or claimers. Just as I am sure that many people have the same thought about 2yo maidens.

          looking forward to learning from your expertise.
          Hugh

          alpha2 27/06/17 12:54 PM Reply


          • Thanks Hugh.
            I am determined to give this my very best shot.

            I have suspended all other forms of betting be it horse racing or sports betting
            to concentrate 100% on this venture.
            Josh is right you have to be completely focused and 100% up front.

            with everything proofed and a spread sheet recording all the plays there can be no false claims
            or waffle.

            This is something I should have done a long time ago and I have sworn if this venture
            fails I will retire and never have another bet.(my long suffering wife would jump for joy if it bombs)
            although she always supports me and never complains(maybe down to the fact I always buy her a decent
            gift if I have a good win)

            I love racing so this is a big call for me but I either do it as a pro or
            take up something else.

            I have always loved racing with a passion and believe in my ability to make a profit from these
            types of races.

            I may fail because nothing is ever sure with horse racing
            but if I do it wont be for a lack of effort or dedication to the subject.

            I want to make a profit for anyone of the site following my advice
            and hope win or lose some of my copy will give an insight into races
            that a vast majority of bettors wouldn’t touch with a barge pole.

            Pete

            peter walker 27/06/17 1:19 PM Reply


  • Hi Peter,
    So how long have u been betting in claimers and what is your record over the years pointswise?
    I’m sure you’ve kept a detailed record- it it would be reassuring to see if you’ve made this pay over time etc…
    Cheers for the info today-and will watch a race I would otherwise have passed over,with interest now!
    Good luck
    Mick

    Mick 27/06/17 11:59 AM Reply


    • I have been playing claimers since 2011
      and am showing a 24 points profit in that time

      modest I know but have been improving all the time
      2011 -6 points
      2012 +8
      2013 +4
      2014 -3
      2015 +9
      2016 +7
      2017 +5
      To my shame I haven’t keep all the results on a spread sheet as
      I should have to prove my case but for this venture.
      I have designed a spread sheet that records every bet at the price advised
      and at SP.

      I have told Josh that the aim is to be in profit after at least 3 months
      and I will cease to put out the advices if this is not the case.

      I am 100% confident that the last 7 years haven’t been wasted
      and I aim to live up to the King Of the Claimers title of the write ups.

      So in three months all hail the King or write me off as the court jester.
      To be fair all my previous results are un proofed so are not worth a bean.

      peter walker 27/06/17 12:43 PM Reply


  • Claimer update.
    Blue Book declared a non runner along with Kupa River.
    There are only seven runners now so no each way option.
    Will be interesting to see if Machine Heads stamina can see off the two potential non stayers
    but at the prices it is now a no bet race.

    if I was the connections of Machine Head I would put him straight to the front and see if he could run the
    finish out of the Tenth Amendment and Cul An Ti.

    The danger using this tactic is the fact the jockey aboard has to get the fractions right
    if he goes too fast in front he will fall apart in the final few furlongs and finish
    tailed off.
    Too Slow and the speedier horses will do him for toe late on.

    DP McDonough is an experienced jockey and his judgement will be vital to the horses
    chance.

    At 9/4 Tenth Amendment(SKY BET, LADBROKES, BOYLES, CORALS)
    9/4 Machine Head(STAN JAMES, BET365)
    and 3/1 Cul An Ti(SKY BET, WILLIAM HILL, TOTE and BETFRED)

    Not a great deal of value to be had, if pushed with all the weight allowance and
    a 7lb claimer riding, Cul An Ti at 3/1 may be the best option now she can race again
    on quick ground but you couldn’t be sure her stamina will last out
    so a no bet race.

    peter walker 27/06/17 12:15 PM Reply


  • 27th June Leicester 7f Novice
    4.25 Falmouth Light, Maksab, Rhosneigr
    3.75
    3.5 Jazirat
    Preview – Maksab is one of my horses to follow and is the most likely to be disputing with Falmouth Light for the win but on reviewing their pictures even with the 6lb penalty in his favour I can’t say I’d be confident. The slow time of Maksab’s race on debut worries me.
    Prior race notes
    Falmouth Light – Only lower medium but dynamic looking individual. Good walk. Did it from close to the front all the way. 82
    Maksab – Is this Mick Channon’s Jallota for the 2017 season? Lower medium, green, 90% fit, despite this ran a good race out wide finishing off well. Given a really nice intro by SDS and could easily leave this form way behind nto. 81
    Rhosneigr – Plain sort of chap, ok size verging on full medium. Not more than 75% fit. Stayed on well but beaten 10l. 74

    alpha2 27/06/17 12:47 PM Reply


    • Maksab possibly a tad lucky there as Rhosneigr lost concentration. Nice to have another horses to follow win.
      Hugh

      alpha2 27/06/17 6:48 PM Reply


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