Members Daily Post: 23/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar

2.55 –

Celestation (all hncp + 3yo+) I3 G3 2/1 UP

Island Flame (micro runs) I1 H3 11/2 UP

3.30 – Town Charter (all+ 3yo+) H3 5/4 UP

 

Ascot

5.35 –

Cape Cova (all hncps+micro going+age) 16/1 UP

Red Galileo (micro 90 days) 40/1 UP

 

Bath

6.10 –

Russian Reward (micro going) H3 I3  4/1 UP

Saint Helana (4yo+) G3  11/1 UP

 

Newmarket

5.50- Trulee Scrumptious (all hncps) H3 I1 G1  11/2 WON 11/2>7/2

 

Ayr

6.30 –

Colour Contrast (4yo+) H1  7/2 3rd 

Whitechurch (4yo+) 12/1 UP

7.05 – Royal Regent (3yo+)  ES    H3 I3 5/1 UP (3rd) 

8.10 –

Explain (micro distance) I3 14/1 2nd 16/1

Harwoods Volante (micro age)  ES    H3 I3  11/1 UP

9.15 –

Royal Dutchess (3yo+) ES    I3 G3  10/1 UP 8/1

Newmarket Warrior (micro class) 12/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Market R 

3.55 –

Creevytennant (hncp chase) 14 10/1 UP

Viens Chercher (micro dist) I3  10/3  UP

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/22,12p, +1.8) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 10/77, +25.3)

 

5.35 Ascot- Cape Cova – 1/2 point EW – 16/1 (BF/BV/WH) 14/1 (gen) UP

Never travelled. May have hated visor, was held up which was a surprise. One to track given profile. That was an off day. Maybe needs to go LH but he was being niggled within first furlong. 

He looks interesting enough here. This is only his 10th run on the flat and there could be more to come at some point and possibly on this third run of the season. GF seems fine, he stays very well and should appreciate this stiff track. There is a strange lack of pace in this race on paper. The last day he tracked the leaders and with any luck TQ can get him out and up there. I don’t think you will want to be too far back here. If he can kick on at some point he should keep going and with 4 places looks worth an EW interest to my eyes. The visor also replaces the blinkers which is ‘doing something different’. He responded well to blinkers first time last season, and was a tad keen in them the last day. This switch may make a positive difference. He ticks a few boxes and is an interesting runner.

 

Notes.. well of the rest… there are three ES qualifiers (the orange clashed with the red pointers) who all seem to have some sort of chance. I would think the penalty may stop Royal Regent but i could be wrong. The 8.10 has that typical ‘take it in turns’ sprint feel to it, albeit Balding sends an unexposed one a long way who heads the market. No result would be a total shock in that one. Royal Dutchess ticks a few boxes and wont mind the forecast rain (that shouldn’t inconvenience any of them really) and there looks to be some pace to aim at. 

Trulee Scrumptious WON (hope you read this bit. Another win for ‘double double’ top rated. I did get off the fence, hope you did!)  – it is just about fitness with her I think. If she is race ready I think he makes all and wins this. She is the only pace angle and should be able to dominate. She has won after 170 odd days rest before but not quite this long, her last two reappearances a bit underwhelming. But, not without a chance and is double top rated at least. She should give backers a run at least until 7f out. I was a bit on the fence. Maybe I should get off it. 11/2 will look good if fit.

 

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June Trainers

3.55 MR – Earthmoves (any odds, 13/2< best) WON 7/2>3/1

8.10 Ayr  – Giant Spark (18/1<)

(research HERE>>>)

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

JAMIE SPENCER… (ahhh…)

Any of you who read my Royal Hunt Cup preview may have noted, prior to fancying El Vip, how I had a look at Spencer over 8f at Ascot, in handicaps. Before that race he was 5/24,13 places, +31 SP.

Decent stats those. How about following them as a micro angle?!!

If only. El Vip lost. Since then he has ridden two winners over the 8f at the meeting priced 20/1 and 25/1 (40s in morning). Gulp. I don’t want to know the BFSPs. Oh to have put £5, or £10 EW on both of those. Next time. I don’t think he plans on retiring again anytime soon.

If you want a jockey micro angle to follow that one may not be a bad place to start! There is no fluke to those stats. He settles horses superbly and benefits from those at the front going toio quick – most of the time. Of course when there isn’t much pace on he is in trouble. But, from now on… Spencer / Ascot / 8f / Handicaps / EW

Those stats are now something like: 7/27, 15 places, +76 SP. Blimey.

It just has to be followed I think. After the Lord Mayor’s show and all that. He will have a shocker of a run now. But keep an eye on it.

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ROYAL ASCOT: Day 4 

Re-cap: A decent day for the micro portfolio, having been on -7  they are now on +17, if you had backed the lot. That should ensure that a ‘systematic’ approach may finish ahead but there are plenty of potentials below. Profit at these meetings is usually made by nabbing the odd decent priced winner and it may well pay to just trust the stats on those. I am my own worst enemy most of the time, betting wise. Of course, as predicted, Sioux Nation was bound to hack up given he was the only micro qualifier I didn’t ‘tip’! Plonker. In any case I gave you enough warnings and I hope you may have had a nibble. 🙂 Anyway. I will keep attempting to be selective with ‘fancies’ and you can use the info as you please. Hopefully there is another biggie somewhere over the next two days. On we go…

 

Micro Systems

AOB 1 (any odds)

2.30 – Actress UP / Clemmie UP

AOB 2 (20/1< guide)

2.30 – Actress UP/ Clemmie UP / Snowflakes UP

3.40 – Caravaggio WON Evens>5/6/ Intelligence Cross UP

GOSDEN (any odds)

3.05 – Glencadam Glory UP / Khalidi 2nd 20/1>10/1 (arguably should have won that)

STOUTE (12/1<)

3.05 – Crystal Ocean 3rd

5.35 – Mainstream

COX (16/1<)

3.40 – Harry Angel 2nd 10/3 / Tis Marvellous DNQ

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Notes (against stats)

3.05 – Permian (if 6/1<) WON 6/1

4.20 – Dabyah UP

5.00 – Face The Facts UP/ Stradivarius WON 8/1>11/2 / Time To Study DNQ (6/1<.. Johnston 4/7 with such fancied ones) (now 5/8)

5.35 – Cape Cova

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My Fancies

Running Total: 1/12, 4 places, +1 point (oh to have put 1/2 point EW on AOBs big winner. Next time. I’m picturing Mozzer shaking his head in disgust 🙂 ) 

Nothing leaping out at me today, ‘tipping wise’ from the main micros- Clemmie and Crystal Ocean look the most likely winners from that list, with Harry Angel not far behind. I have put a muggy 20/1 double on the first of those two for interest. Maybe one of the AOB biggies will win again, and probably wise I take some covering fire, but they really do need to step up on what they have shown so far, into this G3. He is a master though, and they are all unexposed. Maybe the 66/1 shot can hit the frame. Mainstream looks to have a chance but at 5/1 in a race of that nature I would rather leave. (Update: Just read Ryan Moore’s column…and he sounds confident enough on this one, thinks well handicapped etc) The 3.40 could well be the race of the week and you get the feeling we may see something special. One to just watch and enjoy maybe. Hopefully Harry Angel can give the fav plenty to think about.

That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    Blimey, I made a good profit today thanks to your Ascot guide, 16’s and 9’s, and Spencer running a blinder on Bless Him @40’s. I think it was Gerry who mentioned some time ago a micro angle on AW for him and Simcock and I thought at them odds it was worth a e/w punt.

    Bath 6.10 – Saint Helena (4yo+)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 22/06/17 9:03 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike. Cheers as always!.. ah we like days like that. Well done with the Spencer one, wish I had adopted a more systematic mindset to his stat as above when I stumbled across it a couple of days back. One day I’ll have the game by the knackers haha. Glad you backed the other two, those micros had a decent day, +24 points.
      Onto tomorrow.

      Josh 22/06/17 9:21 PM Reply


  • Evening Josh I thing way back in the distant past,I mentioned that with all the dire flat racing going on during the summer it would probably pay just to concentrate on the festivals,i am pretty sure that most if not all all your festival pointers have shown decent profits,thats what i mostly do now,allocate a budget of 5/6 points for each day and try pick out the value selections.Ahh Jamie Spencer,the number of times i have followed him coming with a wet sail and finishing second!

    gearoid180468 22/06/17 10:47 PM Reply


    • Hi Gerry, yep all good points and always plenty to ponder. I do like the flat festival/my approach and as always some fine tuning probably needed but to date, admittedly from limited evidence, they have performed well. Indeed i suspect if you had just backed 16/1+ shots you may be doing quite well! About a balance between well researched micros systems with a decent stats pool, and more niche ‘notes’. Plus the odds trends race but work to do on that front, flat wise.
      The daily offering is always a challenge – I don’t like the number of flat qualifiers- my hope was that the ratings pointers, as with jumps/esp GG, would help focus attention- but they haven’t been cutting much ice really. Maybe the ‘elite squad’ may turn out to be a better approach, with a mix of other micros/monthly pointers/information etc.
      In general the content finds value bets/winners, which is always a good starting point! Just how to get the best out of everything.

      I will have a look at some more jockey/track/distance combos as suspect may be the odd other one. Those are decent stats for Jamie and plenty of logic behind it. Hopefully a few more decent winners in months/years ahead.

      Josh 23/06/17 12:40 PM Reply


  • Brian Meehan is 7/15 with his maidens at Bath since 2013 (+59pts) and 3/7 first time out, with a few at big prices. He has Nagamaat in the 6:45 currently 12/1, sadly only the 7 runners but worth a win bet.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 23/06/17 8:03 AM Reply


  • Josh Trulee Scrumptious was G1,H3 so to me it was a 5pt bet got 8.20 BF so with Earthmoves 2pt at 4.7 i’m just about on break even so any winner tonight will put me in profit . just trying to illustrate my staking method and when you get time after tomorrow if you do have a look can you see if adding I ratings would improve or lower profit. i know your busy but i just don’t have the skills or data to do it myself (must learn how to do spreadsheets) but they say you can’t teach an old dog new tricks .:-)

    martin whittle 23/06/17 6:18 PM Reply


    • Ha… well firstly you can open the spreadsheet in the results tab and go through/make notes if you wish haha, the ratings one 🙂

      I have had a look for you…

      Firstly, Double Top Rated (any 2x H1/I1/G1) are now 8/21, +17.75 at morning prices (prices noted next to horse) That is since start of flat season including today/Trulee S.

      H3+G3..

      Well these had a good start. They were 4/20,8p , +3.5 early/ +4 BFSP to 6th june.
      Since then they are 0/9, 3 places, up to yesterday.

      So a total of 4/29, 11 places… -5.5. The places gives some hope and in general last few weeks just been a bit crap on all fronts anyway. It may well turn around.

      They perform by far the best of the ‘3s’

      H3+I3 = 2/29, 5p… -19

      I3+G3 = 2/17,6p… -7

      Hope that helps. Top rated seems to be the place to focus for any systematic approach but the Top Rated 6/1+ is on a losing run of 12 or so since the update on 6th. So they are still under scrutiny.

      I did also look at all qualifiers when they were both a Handicap+ Micro qualifier…but nothing much on that front… 7/66, 20 places.. +11 up to yesterday. The placed horses could give some hope that this may improve but the SR is in line with ‘backing all’ and that would be a bumpy ride.

      Think that is about it.

      Double Top Rated is showing promise. All other possible ratings pointers approaches are in the ‘yet to be proven’ stage, on the flat- and I would NOT advise diving in deep just based on those figures.

      Top 3 rated seem to perform worse than the non ratings pointers horses.

      Hopefully the Elite Squad may work systematically. As that and the ‘double top rated’ could be a nice little portfolio.

      From there best going on a horse by horse basis and trying to come out in front. I am not doing that as yet with ‘bet of the day’ but early days and placed horses give me some encouragement on that front.

      Peter Bowen has helped!

      Josh

      p.s The top rated + a top 3 rated… were 3/13, -2.5 from 7th June to yesterday I think (or day before) Trulee has helped with that and those figures were 11/55, +18. So.. that one is a possible also. …

      Those figures for Top Rated + Top 3 rated from start season up to 23/06…
      72 bets / 16 wins / 22% wSR / +22.75 points (early/BOG)

      Josh 23/06/17 6:30 PM Reply


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