Members Daily Post: 22/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ripon 

3.20 –

Tarboosh (3yo+) 14/1 WON 12/1 (r4)

Twentysvnthlancers (3yo+) 11/1 UP

Bond Bombshell (micro age) ES* (detailed in KEY) 25/1  UP

Lawless Louis (micro age) ES 11/2 2nd 15/2 

 

Ascot 

None.

 

JUMPS

Ffos Las 

7.10 –

West Torr (all hncp + chase + micro TJC) 13/2 3rd

Strumble Head (micro runs) 14,30 I3 8/1 UP

8.10 – Awaywiththegreys (micro runs) 14,30 I1 8/1 WON 8/1>3/1

8.40 – Princess Roania (micro runs) 14,30 I3  7/1 UP

9.10 –

Little Pop H3 I1 4/1 3rd

Sioux Chieftan (hncp hurdle) 30  7/1 UP

 

**

 

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE>>>

 

**

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/22,12p, +1.8) (Jumps: 8/54, +25.5) (total: 10/76, +26.3)

 

Sioux Chieftain– 1 point win – 7/1 (general) UP

There seems to be some money around for this one which is never a bad sign with this yard. We shall see if it is sustained. He ticks a few boxes for me. Firstly he is unexposed over hurdles, 1/3,2 places. In theory there should be more to come at some point, this being his third handicap hurdle. It is also his third run after a lengthy absence and it could be that he is about to come right. It looks like they have been patient with him. His last run showed some promise and was 57 days after his initial return having been off for a year. He ran well to a point there and the front three were clear of the rest- albeit the front two way ahead of him. He gets a tongue tie fitted here for the first time which may help with any finishing effort and in any case that fits the ‘doing something different’ category and is a possible reason for improvement – as is the fact he may be in peak condition now. He has come down 6lbs in the last two runs and Charlie’s 7lbs will help further, esp taking some of the 12st off. And finally, Newland is in form. 3/17,10 places the last 30 days, 0/6,3 places the last 14 days. I am taking on Little Pop who may well win here but he reverts to hurdling having been chasing for a few runs which is never easy. And at the odds I prefer to give SC a chance- he has more to come, at some point.

 

Other notes…

The 3.20 – well always a tad annoying when a few qualifiers in one race. As I write I have backed ES qualifier Lawless Louis at 13/2 last night. Seems to be some money around. They will find the key again at some point, and add to his 2yo wins. The two runs at Beverley over 5f showed some promise. He may just not like the AW and that ‘could’ be an excuse for the last day. Before that he ran over a stiff 6f and as yet no evidence he stays that sort of trip- certainly not at that track. He is ‘doing something different’ also- 1st time visor. IF that works he should be in the mix here, and gets the 3yo allowances etc, + another handy 3lb off his back. This looks a very competitive race where you could make a case for plenty. My job in these notes is not to put you off horses, rather make a positive case for the odd one- so I won’t mention the rest.

**

 

June Trainers

8.10 FL – Awaywiththegreys (any odds, 13/2< best) WON 8/1>3/1 

8.40 FL – Princess Roania UP

3.20 Ripon – Twentysvnthlancers (18/1<) UP

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

**

ROYAL ASCOT: Day 3

Micro Systems

AOB 1

3.05 – Orderofthegarter 2nd  / Taj Mahal UP

AOB 2 (20/1< guide, 150/1>66/1 placed horse Day 2)

2.30 – Sioux Nation WON 20/1>14/1

GOSDEN (any odds, now 0/14,3p bigger 12/1)

3.40 – Coronet WON 9/1

5.00 – Hyde Park UP

STOUTE (12/1 <)

3.40 – Mori 2nd 

COX (16/1<)

2.30 – Koditime UP

 

Notes (against stats)

2.30 – Mcerin UP

3.05 – Mirage Dancer 3rd

5.00 – City of Joy UP

5.35 – Homesman (Dundalk 1st run) / Master Singer / Tartini

 

My Fancies *

*to be treated with some caution and not placed with anywhere near the amount of confidence as at a Cheltenham for example. Plenty of work needed on my flat ‘tipping’ game. 

(running total: 0/7,2 places, -4.5 points)

Hmm. That wasn’t a great day, esp as a clear draw bias appeared to develop- albeit pace was high on a few races – but in any case it is in the jockeys minds now. No luck in the Royal Hunt Cup. A couple of 3yo handicaps to close the card on Thursday and I think it best I leave those! I will see if anything above stands out albeit after 2 days my pin isn’t landing on the right ones.

From the main ‘micros’

2.30 – Koditime– 1/2 point EW- 18/1 (BV/PP/BSp) 16/1 (gen)

I have added this one in last and it would be typical for one of the two I have left for ‘tipping’, from the micros, to go and bolt up. It is hard to say this one can’t win given his draw and the impression he made over 5f on GF when winning on debut. The horse he beat since hacked up. The last day was over 6f on soft ground, and he pulled too hard. He still ran well enough considering. Cox does not tilt at windmills with his non handicappers here. Clearly if he goes off bigger than 16s then he could be in trouble. There are 4 places/5th odds with most bookies. Hopefully he can be thereabouts.

 

3.05 –

Order of The Garter – 1 point win – 11/2 2nd 10/3

Taj Mahal – 1/2 point win – 16/1 UP (4th)

Both of these ran decent enough races in the French Derby with the former having no luck up the rail/constantly blocked. Would have been closer but for that. He ran well on GF on his debut and hopefully copes with it here. Also gets the TT/CP combo for the first time. AOB does like to tinker and that may make the difference. TM is also running well enough and at that price I thought he was worth a dart. Pace was interesting also- I thought a slight chance one or both of these will try and make all… a 1-2 all the way round would be nice, if they can dictate they could be dangerous.

3.40 – Coronet – 1 point win – 8/1 WON 9/1

EW is probably wise as no doubt one of the top 2 will win and a saver on Mori may be no bad thing. But 8s seems decent enough. I wonder if Gosden will use his other two to set a strong pace here as she looks an out and out stayer I think- I was drawn to her win last October where the three horses who followed her home were Conco / Permian / Wings of Eagles. The first two have won some group races between them and the latter won the Derby. She clearly has ability. The hope is that she may be getting better with racing, this may have been the target, and this first run on proper fast ground may bring out more- it may not of course, but that is a difference. She was never going the last day and maybe just had a bad day at the office/didn’t like the track. I will trust in the micro and roll the dice.

5.00 Hyde Park – 1/2 point EW – 28/1 5 places (general, 6 places around) UP

Well I will ignore my own advice to leave the 3yo handicaps alone and may well pay for that! I will roll the dice with this one also at 28s. He is drawn on the right side on what we know and actually most of the pace seems high again. He also takes a step up in trip which is a reason for improvement. And I did note that Gosden/Lee are 4/12,6 places on the flat. I assume Frankie may have rode and Doyler is on his other in here- not sure if that was a choice or not. Lee’s record at the track is moderate enough but he can’t have ridden too many with chances, esp at the Royal Meeting. At that price I will take a flyer. On the right side, looks to be crying out for a trip, bred to stay further. May stay on and grab a place. Oh and Gosden liked winning this race in the early 2000s.

 

That will be it, tipping wise. A go hard, or most likely, go home day! I will trust the micros and you can make some sort of case for most of them to my eye. At least they all look progressive/open to further improvement. That should give us hope. Clearly Sioux Nation, the only micro not tipped, will bolt up now! (haha,well that was predictable,I hope you may have had something on! Over-thinking a 2 yo race from a man who prefers 3m chasers. As Mozzer would say, trust the stats!)  He looks like he has work to do and I am not sure the drop back to 5f on fast is in his favour, but who knows. Very best of luck if you follow me in. My 1 points are £5 notes at this meeting, as a sign of my own level of confidence in my flat ability at this meeting. 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Don’t think it’s the pin,it’s the irony of not using the stats when there pointed out to you. lol

    mozzer 21/06/17 8:00 PM Reply


    • I take your general point but it is using the stats, but just not finding any winners as yet in the my fancies bit… I haven’t been taking the ‘backing all’ approach to the micros/notes as yet… indeed the micros are -7 if you had just put 1 point on them all and the ‘notes’ ‘qualifiers’ are -5.5. Being selective is the way to go for now for me personally, esp with new micros etc – just about trying to get the pins to land on the likes of Lady A, Thomas Hobson and Heartache, or AOB big priced placed horse- but always easier with hindsight. I thought it would be useful if I tried to share my own thoughts- that may end up being counter productive! No biggies have gone in yet and we may still nab one of those.

      Josh 21/06/17 10:07 PM Reply


      • My interpretation of the stats found me heartache at 13/2 and a 66/1 place in the first race. I also did Highland Reel and Qemah, so not a bad day.

        I will as usual stick with the stats today and see what they do.

        I am also on C Dwyer runners at Chelmsford as per TTP stats.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 22/06/17 11:58 AM Reply


  • Yep it wasn’t the best day until! I’ve just checked my bet365 account to find that I totally forgot that I had an ante-post bet on Zhui Feng 33/1 I hadn’t added to my spreadsheet doh! so the day was not a total write off 🙂

    Gavin 21/06/17 9:44 PM Reply


  • i actually had one of my better days yesterday both Euro Nightmare and Titi Mafki were 5pt bets, got 8.80 on Heartache and had Spirit of Valor and Tashweeq ew, plus my little bonus from Gary Priestley’s free tips. all told over £300 up.
    Josh i don’t know how easy it would be to do this on your spreadsheet but could you look at back all 2pts plus 2pts for H1,G1, plus 1pt H3,G3.
    i don’t increase bets with I ratings and i’m just going to have a small side bet for the ES until we know more, thanks again for all your hard work.

    martin whittle 22/06/17 7:52 AM Reply


    • Ah good to hear Martin- sounds like a good day to me and what it is all about- many will approach the content in their own way- i do just have to find the odd systematic ‘set and forget’ approach as a constant. Maybe ES will be that, with any luck.

      I can have a look when i get a chance… there have not been many double top rated, across all three ratings sets, but will look at H1, G1. Yep I haven’t looked at double rated H1 G3, I probably should… I took view that separately H3, G3, I3 were all so horrendous as of 6th June there may not be any decent way in as such- in fact they were performing worse than all non H3,G3,I3 qualifiers given the losses. Those ratings, so far, do not seem to be having same impact as over jumps – well G1, G3 anyway. The core stats are performing ok ‘backing all’ or were.

      Josh

      Josh 22/06/17 8:13 AM Reply


  • Great win with Sioux Nation, unfortunately I confused it with the best bet Sioux Chieftain and I only backed the latter, just my luck.

    John 22/06/17 2:53 PM Reply


    • oh bugger. Well when Sioux C hacks up hopefully that will lift the mood 🙂 I know how you feel, never nice, best try and forget it asap if you can. If it is any consolation I only had change on, having tried my best to talk myself out of him.. in one fell swoop the micros have gone from -7 to +12. Typically he was the only micro I didn’t ‘tip’, i can be a great judge at times!! We shall see if they can build on that.

      Josh 22/06/17 2:57 PM Reply


  • Congrats Josh , smashing effort already today … Hopefully got some of that cash back you’ve been spending abroad ! 🙂

    Well done

    joners 22/06/17 3:50 PM Reply


    • cheers. Ha- god yes Italy did drain the funds somewhat and I was only there 4 days. That little lot has paid for a few bottles of wine. Only neg was not ‘tipping’ winner of race 1 which was bloody typical I suppose, so typical hopefully a few threw something at him. Micros as a portfolio now +18 as I write, how quickly it can change with that approach. On we march. That’s how it goes with my approach… poor day, poor day, wallop.

      Josh 22/06/17 4:01 PM Reply


  • just got back in to find 3 winners @16’s,9’s and 12’s thats paid for the lunch out 🙂

    martin whittle 22/06/17 4:05 PM Reply


  • Just got in….but what a lift….Sioux Nation and Coronet…..also bet 365 paid out on 4th placed Taj Hahal….
    Gonna have a large sherbet now…lol.

    WEll done Josh.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 22/06/17 4:12 PM Reply


  • I backed all Aidan O Briens bigger priced ones during meeting,had to come up with a big one at some stage,think its the way to go with his runners really,remember being gutted last year not following his team,hopefully Homesman or Utah will add to that,but i think i will be up on one of these festivals for a change

    gearoid180468 22/06/17 4:19 PM Reply


  • 5pm Afaak… missed him from notes. been backed, hits couple of the very nice niche micro notes, 14/1<, (3/13,6p) GB bred.. 3/5,3p, +33...

    Josh 22/06/17 4:42 PM Reply


  • Cracking today Josh well done, I went with Sioux nation and Coronet. Thats my spending money shorted for Ibiza

    Gavin 22/06/17 5:28 PM Reply


    • Well done, yep a couple of winners scattered about, I had a bit on Sioux, not as much as you would have liked when they win mind haha. Pleased Coronet got up. Been a good day so far, hopefully topped off later at Ffos las, we shall see.

      Josh 22/06/17 5:39 PM Reply


  • 3.20 – Tarboosh (3yo+) 14/1 WON 12/1 (r4)

    Hi Josh – just to let you know this was available at 25/1 last night

    hallio1 22/06/17 5:32 PM Reply


    • Cheers… I thought he might have been, hopefully you may have had a nibble at that price! I record all prices in the morning for consistency/fairness and take a general price as best I can.. doesn’t take much money to shift them in evening etc but hope is that some get bigger prices in the evening. ‘They Knew’!

      Josh 22/06/17 5:38 PM Reply


      • A little nibble perhaps Josh 😉 Cheers

        hallio1 22/06/17 6:22 PM Reply


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