Free Daily Post: 22/06/17 (complete)

micro angles / Bet of The Day / Royal Ascot Micros…

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

T George Chasers (any odds)

6.10 FL- Get Rhythm

A Perrett All-Weather

3.30 Chelm – Zzoro (12/1<)

 

**

The Royal Hunt Cup winner broke a few of my stats that i focused on, which happens more often than not on the flat it seems. Pondering required.

Both Priestley brothers and Dr Nick Hardman did find the winner at 28/1. Well done them. Fine judges in these races. I should have just followed those in but not much damage done financially. Still, none of mine ran very well which is always frustrating.

There are two 3YO Only handicaps on Day 3 that I will leave well alone. But I will try and post something up of use.

**

From my Members’ Post…

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/22,12p, +1.8) (Jumps: 8/54, +25.5) (total: 10/76, +26.3)

9.10 FL – Sioux Chieftain– 1 point win – 7/1 (general)

There seems to be some money around for this one which is never a bad sign with this yard. We shall see if it is sustained. He ticks a few boxes for me. Firstly he is unexposed over hurdles, 1/3,2 places. In theory there should be more to come at some point, this being his third handicap hurdle. It is also his third run after a lengthy absence and it could be that he is about to come right. It looks like they have been patient with him. His last run showed some promise and was 57 days after his initial return having been off for a year. He ran well to a point there and the front three were clear of the rest- albeit the front two way ahead of him. He gets a tongue tie fitted here for the first time which may help with any finishing effort and in any case that fits the ‘doing something different’ category and is a possible reason for improvement – as is the fact he may be in peak condition now. He has come down 6lbs in the last two runs and Charlie’s 7lbs will help further, esp taking some of the 12st off. And finally, Newland is in form. 3/17,10 places the last 30 days, 0/6,3 places the last 14 days. I am taking on Little Pop who may well win here but he reverts to hurdling having been chasing for a few runs which is never easy. And at the odds I prefer to give SC a chance- he has more to come, at some point.

 

**

And something for Royal Ascot.. my micro system qualifiers from a report produced for Members/Betting Insiders Club. These are very much a starting point but having had a flick through I hope one or two may go close…

ROYAL ASCOT: Day 3

Micro Systems

AOB 1

3.05 – Orderofthegarter 2nd / Taj Mahal UP

AOB 2 (20/1< guide, 150/1>66/1 placed horse Day 2)

2.30 – Sioux Nation WON 20/1>14/1

GOSDEN (any odds, now 0/14,3p bigger 12/1)

3.40 – Coronet WON 9/1

5.00 – Hyde Park

STOUTE (12/1 <)

3.40 – Mori 2nd 

COX (16/1<)

2.30 – Koditime UP

 

**

Good luck with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Away from Ascot briefly, Sir Michael Stoute does seem to do well with his runners at Lingfield in Class 4-6 races:
    2012: 7 winners / 22 runners (32% Strike rate),+51 BFSP.
    2013: 8/18 (44%), +10.
    2014: 5/18 (28%), +19.
    2015: 6/14 (43%), +7.
    2016:4/10 (40%), +8.

    Admittedly, the profit getting smaller with a similar strike rate could well be indicative of the market ‘catching up’.

    Yet to register a winner this year from 4 runners but has the chance to correct that tomorrow in the 8.50 race with Doreen, currently priced at 7/1.

    🙂

  2. 5.00 Ascot (Thursday) Britannia

    20 years, 576 runners

    Last three runs, no top 2 : 0/121
    90 days runs NOT 1-4: 0/49
    Last placed 4 or more runs ago: 0/76
    3 or more runs at 1m: 0/127
    2 runs in class 2 or higher: 0/94
    2 handicap wins:1/68
    3 or more places at 1m: 0/39
    Last run, at 1m1f or further: 1/94
    Last run, NOT top 5: 1/165
    Break between lat run and 2nd las run, more than 180 days: 0/63
    Latest win on the AW: 1/80
    Latest win further than 1m : 0/55

    286-10 years
    Best in three runs, NOT top 2: 0/52
    90 day runs, NOT 1-3: 0/53
    Last run, NOT 1m: 2/145

    Rusumaat and Gilgamesh miss out by just one trend I think and Capezzano has done almost all his running in Meydan so very tricky to gauge here.

    I think it’s just Leader’s Legacy (14/1), Afaak (16/1) , Moritzburg (50/1), Lightening Fast (20/1) and Via Serendipity(66/1) who pass through unscathed.
    Pleased to see a couple of Irish ones make it through – those registering their latest win in Ireland are 2/18.

  3. not sure if it was on here or members page that somebody mentioned Gary Priestley’s free tips and i have been watching them and backing some, well today just as an aside i did 3 of his in a 50p ew patent 2 winners @ 28’s and 11’s paid £209 if the third had come in it would have been over £8k but i’ll take £200+ profit all day long 🙂

    1. Well done. Yep would have been on here, he wrote at article for the blog which is in the free reports/systems tab somewhere- albeit every time i post it he hits a losing runs and has asked me not to share it anymore haha. Do take a look at his long term record- nature of his approach that he will hit harsh losing runs every now and then. But his record over time is phenomenal, and of course you may just wish to dip in and out. His write ups are decent also. Always worth a flick through. He is a fine value judge, one of the best around.

    2. I have been following Gary Priestley and he has not been going well. I follow via the tipsters website?

      Are you looking somewhere different?

      1. That is the only place he posts his tips.. like I said, up and down.. you have to take a very long term view with his approach… 1 year +… June-Jan 17 were poor, then he got all those losses back/moved into profit Feb-April I think. Not sure how recent weeks have gone but but had a +50 point day yesterday I think. or around that. All his results are published in full on that site,month by month. You make your own judgement. And depends when you start of course! Probably best to jump in when in middle of a bad bad spell. He has average win SR 11% or so, average odds are 12/16+ i think.. that means very painful runs at times.. can be odd -50+ point month every now and the, -25, -30 etc.

        Personally i don’t follow systematically for various reasons but like reading his stuff and dipping in and out every now and then, not yesterday mind!

  4. Ascot 2.30: According to racing post 2007-20016 no winners over 16/1 sp so have concentrated on or below this price using W hill 21.54 pm and have miles per hour for the runners as follows over 5 furlongs unless stated otherwise.

    McErin (over 4.5 furlongs) 39.14
    Santry 38.38
    Nine Below Zero 38.91 (according to nag-nag-nag.co.uk horses that had their last run are 0/64 for wins and 8
    were placed)
    Havana Grey 39.94
    Frozen Angel was one length behind Havana Grey in same race.
    It Doesn’t Come Easy 38.38
    Consequences was 2.5 lengths behind Santry
    True Blue Moon 36.00
    Koditime 36.83
    Card Sharp 36.49
    I include Sioux Nation even though I it is 20/1 over 6 furlongs 37.43 and was 36.17 over 5 furlongs on its debut run so has improved so possible place options.
    Gd lck

    1. Well Sioux Nation goes in around 14/1 SP being an improver as suggested and Santry comes second so upholds the figures and 5 furlongs proved too much for the Ward horse…hope someone had the forecast…as I did NOT …Nine Below Zero lost so upholds the nag.nag. nag stats with regards to LTO windsor runners…cheers John

      1. Well done John, yep went in for the micros above also, all came together well there. No forecast here sadly and only change on the winner. Was more confident on Kodi in Members post, but that’s just how my picking goes!

        1. Cheers Josh and the winner upheld your stats with a tasty winner at a tasty price nice one!…good when stats are upheld…restores your faith in the methodology…the way I calculate is not an exact science (what is in trying to find winners from capricious animals!) but I find it useful in finding out what is behind speed figures. More of the same please!

  5. ***Note on Nine Below Zero should read “horses with last run at Windsor 0/64 for wins with 8 placed”

  6. Close but no cigar with Out Of The Flames today.

    22nd June Ascot 5f Norfolk
    4.25 Cardsharp, Frozen Angel, Havana Grey, Koditime, Nine Below Zero, Rock Of Estonia, Sioux nation, True Blue Moon, Viscount Loftus
    3.75 Billy Dyllan, Consequences, New Empire, Pilkington,
    3.5
    3.25 It Don’t Come Easy
    3
    2.75
    2.5 McErin, Gift In Time
    .75 Poorauldjosephine.
    Preview – My initial instinct is to go with Frozen Angel but judging by today’s result the low draw may not help. How much the result of the Queen Mary was a function of pace is open to question as undoubtedly the best horses got into the places and it may just have been coincidence that they were drawn near each other. Consequently I am going to hedge my bets with selections from each side.
    Low: Frozen Angel,
    High: Havana Grey, Santry

    Prior race notes
    Havana Grey – Efficiently made, compact, looking very fit. Bounced out on the rail and made all keeping on well. 84
    Frozen Angel – Well questions have been answered as to why he was taken to Newmarket, he is a good one. Jumped ok but does not quite have the early speed of some of these. Outpaced during the race and bumped late. Slightly more sprint shaped than Havana Grey with a bigger back end. Better over 6f? 85
    Koditime – Typical compact but power-packed Kodiac colt. He was always travelling well in behind and although had to force his way through his pilot was full of confidence and he won pretty much as he liked although by a narrow margin. I don’t think he is a potential Kodibear and looks very much a 2yo but should win his share. 83, may well rate higher as he seemed to show something different when asked to go.
    Nine Below Zero – Compact bottom end of medium, with good volume in the ribcage area. Looking a bit woolly on the coat over the ribs. Travelled well and won under hands and heels. A respectable time so this one may be a bit better than he looks at present. 77
    Rock Of Estonia – Mid medium size, lovely bright chestnut, best stride of any in the paddock and good muscling on the rump, still carrying some condition, nicest example but Spencer and Hills fto put me off. Kept rugged until last second. Won under hands and heels 80 possibly better.
    Billy Dylan – Plainish lower medium, apparently took a knock early but never really going pace to get involved. 73
    Hugh

  7. 4.35 Ripon

    Had a quick look at the last 10 years of this race, only 60 runners in total.

    ALL 10 winners had at least one top 2 finish in their previous three runs, from just 35 of the 60 runners.
    8 winners from just 26 runners with official rating between 86-89.

    Leaves us with the favourite Sands Chorus priced at 3/1.

    Hasn’t been a race to look away from the head of the market as 9 winners have been 4/1 or shorter from just 25 runners.

    Trainer James Given has sent 3 runners this year to Ripon in 4yo+ handicaps…amazingly ALL 3 have won at 9/2,5/1 & 3/1.

    All of a sudden the 3/1 today is looking big enough.

    🙂

  8. 5.35 King George V Stakes

    20 years – 358 runners.

    Last win more than 60 days ago: 0/112
    Last run, NO top 3: 1/99
    1 handicap run: 1/81
    Last win NOT 1m1f-1m4f: 1/93

    Leaves: 1,2,5,8,11,14,18.

    10 years – 177 runners.

    Last win was in Class 4 or lower: 0/115 (killer stat for 6/1 fav Master Singer?)
    1 career win: 0/85

    Leaves: Homesman (14/1), Sofia’s Rock (11/1), Good Omen (18/1), Drochaid (14/1)

    🙂

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