Free Daily Post: 20/06/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

3.30 Strat- Cernunnos UR

 

**

Royal Ascot 2017 

A race preview below from Dr Nick Hardman over at the Betting Insiders Club. The prices of a couple in here caught the eye!

Ascot 5.35pm

The most wide open two year old race at the meeting with huge price winners and placed horses over the years.  However, before we get to the outsiders, the main selection is Nootka Sound for Wesley Ward who knows what it takes to win this race and is quite bullish (no surprise there) about this one.  Now to the rags.  It may be that there are no surprises this year but this race has thrown up a 100/1 winner and a couple of 100/1 placers in recent times.  If you don’t fancy this then just stick to the main selection, but this is Royal Ascot and I will have a few each way on these total outsiders.  Last Page is a four race maiden, but one of those he shipped his rider and he has been runner up on the other three.  His best run was his last a Beverley over 5 ½f, beaten a couple of lengths by Prince Of The Dark who is fancied to run well in the Coventry.  He also lost out by a head to Chagatai who holds a Group 1 entry in Ireland.  The other is Areen Faisal who ran OK on debut on decent ground and may not have been suited by good to soft next time.  Both these runners fair OK on RP speed times (3rd and joint 7th).  They may well finish as the last two but you never know and PP go 5 places.

Nootka Sound @11/2 UP

Last Page @100/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP) or 150/1 (1/5 odds, 4 places, Coral) 5th

Areen Faisal @100/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP) or 100/1 (1/5 odds, 4 places) most others UP

 

**

That will be all for Tuesday. Nice to find a decent 12/1 winner on Monday’s post. No idea how he won going away given how lively he was pre race and how much he pulled. He could be decent, if ever learning how to race. (African, 8.45 Wind)

**

 

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11 Comments

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  • From Chris…
    5.00 Ascot Stakes (2m4f)

    Past 20 years stats involving a mammoth 451 runners!

    Latest five runs, NO top 2 : 1/92 (1.1%).
    Runs in last 365 days, 4 or less: 1/86.
    Latest win was 2 runs ago: 0/63. (killer stat for the 7/2 fav Thomas Hobson?)

    Career wins 0-1: 1/94
    11 or more runs since last win: 0/50
    Last run not in Class 2-4: 0/55
    LR less than 1m6f: 1/75
    LR NOT top 10: 0/55
    LR >45 days ago: 1/69

    Latest win on the AW: 0/37
    Latest win in class 1-2 0/70.

    I *think* it leaves Magic Circle (12/1) ,High Secret (20/1) and Cosmelli. Cosmelli is there more by default as most of his running has been in Italy so very difficult to assess accurately with these trends.

    Of the ones which missed out by one trend (2/3/5/9/12/14) one worth siding with could be Star Rider(33/1) IMO. Kirby and Morrison are 2 from 3 this year.

    Josh 19/06/17 7:47 PM Reply


  • 2.30 Ascot Queen Anne stakes
    (20 years involving 204 runners)

    Not very ‘trends-friendly’ due to the foreign raiders and non-handicap nature of the race but had a little look anyway.

    Not aged 4-5: 0/38, 7 placed.
    OR 111 or less: 0/41, 5 placed.
    1 win further than 1m: 0/29
    3 or 4 season runs: 0/29.
    4 or more runs since last win: 1/47.
    Last win NOT in class 1: 1/36.
    Last win at 7f: 0/46,7 placed.

    Of the UK/Irish horses, think that leaves Ribchester (evens), Ennadd (25/1) and American Patriot (25/1(20/1 for 4 places with BFred and Totesport)).

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 19/06/17 9:32 PM Reply


  • 20th June Ascot 6f Coventry
    4.25 Brother Bear, Denaar, Headway, Red Roman, Murillo, US Navy Flag, Zaman
    3.75 Aqabah, Arawak, Connery, De Bruyne Horse, Haddaf, Ivy Leaguer,Nebo, Prince Of The Dark, Romanised
    3.5
    3.25
    3 Chookie Dunedin, Connery
    2.75
    2.5
    2.25 Rajasinghe
    2
    Preview – I have backed De Bruyne Horse and Brother Bear antepost and will probably add one at the paddock side if I see an outstanding model. I always say to Josh that if you have to back three you don’t know so best left alone. Maybe Ascot is the exception.
    For an outsider I am also a little tempted by Haddaf each way, only raced over 5f so far and always finishing like a train behind good ones.
    Prior race notes
    Headway – Medium, powerfully made in a compact package. Kept rugged until the last second so little opportunity for inspection but good impression. Bit keen early and had to be restrained back by Cosgrave possibly surrendering 4l to Embour and 2l to GT. No stick used unlike the 1st and 3rd. Promising 87 (nb this race has not worked out at all)
    Nebo – One of the smallest in the field, possibly top end of small or just into bottom of medium. Looked well but not outstanding. Well-made neat package but hard to see him as group potential. Interesting to see how he develops. A very suspect 87
    Haddaf – The 75 given on debut as thought at the time was a bit light. The unluckiest horse in the race. Taken wide by S & S early then hampered as he made his run. 85
    Ivy Leaguer – Lower medium, chunky with ok chest cavity. Similar size to Buridan but lacking quite the strength in the linkage. 64
    Hugh

    alpha2 19/06/17 9:51 PM Reply


  • 20th June Ascot 5f Windsor Castle
    4.25 Areen Faisal, Chatburn, Declarationofpeace, Dahik, Dragon’s Tail, Magnus, Roussel, Sound And Silence, Nootka Sound
    3.75 Corinthia Knight, Declarationoflove, Excellently Poised, James Garfield,June Dog, Last Page, Simmy’s Copshop, T For Tango
    3.5
    3.25 Elizabeth Darcy, Marchingontogether
    3 Black Orange City Guest
    2.75 Another Batt, Mokaatil
    1 Autumn Lodge
    Preview – It looks hard to oppose the three foreign runners, Declarationofpeace, Notka Sound and Elizabeth Darcy. The fact that Corinthia Knight is 4th in speaks volumes for the quality of the UK opposition. If just one of these is a bit special it will be game over.
    Of those I have seen Dahik and June Dog stand out at the prices, currently 65 and 60 respectively on BF and are perhaps worth a small e/w bet. Another one with lots of potential still is Mokaatil, his second on debut to Nine Below Zero for Owen Burrows suggests he is a better one as most of his have been hopeless on debut.

    Prior race notes
    Areen Faisal – Lightly made lower medium, taller, narrow. A completely different model from Sound Of Silence. Another ‘now’ type. Not much to him but might be better if he fills out. 73

    Corithia Knight – smallest in height in the field but looked in fantastic condition. Every muscle defined and coat gleaming. Good attitude. No doubting how well he won this and could perhaps even pick up another weak novice under a further penalty. Just a concern that as soon as he comes up against a proper sized one with a bit of ability his size will find him out. 73
    Dragons Tail – Green in the prelims and looking overawed. Ok frame with the potential to get up to medium sized. Generally likeable good walker but far from ready to seriously compete. More mentally than physically and should go close nto. 72
    Dahik – Small but strongly made, a good Society Rock sprinter. Didn’t think he was ready to run as well as this as he looked a bit bulky. Develop well with time. 80
    June Dog – delighted to see my impressions from Doncaster confirmed here. Sean Levey said after that he may have only just coped with the ground. Possibly a better performance to come on fast ground. Ready looking, neatly made, barely medium. Looked relaxed on his 2nd trip to a course, completely different to debut. Jumped out and controlled the race. Never headed. Although it looked close at the end, JD wandered a bit and if not for that always had the race under control 78
    James Garfield – Lost 5l at start and looks potentially the best horse. Interesting to see if Charlie Fellowes can bring him on. Bit rangier than the first two, longer but not taller. 76
    Last Page – Well, hard to know what happened here. She is a leggy hat rack but with enough size to win something as she has shown in her early runs. Clearly has a kink as she wasted no time in getting rid of poor John Egan. Possibly a 65+ if she is not completely mad.
    Black Orange – Bigger and stronger unit than the winner, not as neatly made and a notably poor walker. I would put this defeat down to that more than preparation issues. That proximity on debut to Hellovaqueen now makes more sense and the 2nd div of the Brocklesby may be pretty poor. As the only one with experience he should have done better. 62
    City Guest – Ok chunky type, not fully fit despite 2to, probably broken by trying to go with principals early, bound for nurseries. 70
    Sound And Silence – Medium size. Strongly made well-built type, a bit downhill and looked to be carrying plenty of condition. Enough to lead me into thinking he would need the run and that Charlie Appleby was not going to have them ready fto. In the event like Said Bin Suroor’s early debuts last year there is an underlying level of fitness and/or class that enables them to beat an averagish field of lesser types. 84
    Autumn Lodge – Just a trundler, looked fit enough. 65
    Mokaatil – Too free early, did well to run on in the way he did. Lower end of medium. 75
    Hugh

    alpha2 19/06/17 10:26 PM Reply


  • Two for me tomorrow. Firstly High Secret seems to be on just about everyone’s trends in the 17:00 at Ascot. (Chris’s above as well as Ben Aitken’s and Nick Hardman’s). It is very much the new in-thing for jumps trainers to come and spoil things at Ascot and this is Nicholls’ first runner at Royal Ascot for 5 years. Jumps or dual purpose trainers have won the race for the past 7 years which rules out half the field. Nicholls seems to have put slightly more attention to the flat this year I suspect largely due to his daughter. She has yet to be out of the places riding for her dad in 2017 including winning her last 2. (32211 including a couple of big field places). Nicholls is absolutely on fire with 6 wins and 7 places from his 10 runners in the past 2 weeks. The horse has a 2nd over 2 miles during his only visit to the track as a 4 year old back when trained by Mark Prescott and given his breeding I think he will stay. He ran well enough LTO over a too short a trip. Likes to race prominently which is a plus in a large field. I just thought 25/1 and 5 places was too big.

    I also want a bet on On Alberts Head in the 17:20 at Stratford. Down to 11lbs below his last winning mark just over 12 months ago. He needs good ground so excuses can be made for his last two runs and 2 and a half miles appears to be his ideal trip. His trainer removes the hood and tongue tie and replaces them with cheekpieces. Jacob comes over for just the one ride. Has already been nibbled in the market.

    nickmazur 19/06/17 10:57 PM Reply


    • Hello Nick, back from the WSOP?

      martin colwell 20/06/17 11:26 AM Reply


  • like WHO DARES WINS in ascot 5-0, was unlucky in chester cup, not clear run, running on strongly, beaten less than 2 lenghts

    pendrem 20/06/17 6:13 AM Reply


  • Terrific work as always from our blog contributor’s….It’s terrific stuff…Well done lads… Now let’s gird our loins and enter the fray….lol.

    BOL all.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 20/06/17 11:19 AM Reply


  • RE 3.05 Ascot…Not sure if this helps but I convert times to miles per hour and have Brother Bear and De Bruyne Horse clocking 40.09 mph each with Rajasinghe clocking 39.71 with Zaman clocking 39.22…gd lck

    john greves 20/06/17 12:46 PM Reply


  • Ribchester to get beat today? If he turns up in top form he’ll go close but does he really like it without cut in the ground? He was impressive last time but maybe that was down to others under performing in sub optimal conditions. Some of the others have their ideal conditions here and could give him a real test. Deauville e/w for me, may not be good enough anyway but more fun than the fav’s price.

    Chris Albin 20/06/17 2:07 PM Reply


  • 5.00 Wednesday Royal Hunt Cup (584 runners over 20 years)

    Latest three runs, no top 2 : 4/212
    Last win 2 runs ago: 1/68.
    Last placed 5 or more runs ago: 1/88
    Ran at 1m more than 10 times: 0/117
    Ran in handicap races more than 25 times: 0/59
    0-1 wins: 1/120
    More than 2 wins at 1m: 1/102
    Handicap wins 4/-5: 0/77
    Last win NOT in Class 2-4: 1/78

    5-7-8-9-21-24-25-26-31

    Too many to have a go at so looked at 10 year trends:

    10 years, 281-10

    Last run at less than 1m: 0/67
    Last win was more than 5 runs ago: 0/92
    Total wins NOT 2-4 : 1/119
    More than 1 Class 2 or higher wins :1/68
    6yo: 1/48

    So, I think all that leaves us with…

    El Vip 9/1
    Banksea 10/1
    GK Chesterton 16/1
    Bravery 33/1

    Many firms offering 5 places.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 20/06/17 3:11 PM Reply


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