Free Daily Post: 18/06/17 (complete)

Ah well Harry Hurricane nearly won for the sprint stats/trends – i thought he had it but may have hit the front too soon, pulling himself up a tad or just running out of steam. One of those. Still, a decent run. Nearly. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Days

5.20 Cork – Covetous (25/1< best)

 

**

Nothing else jumping out at me today.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • 3.45 Salisbury

    Looked through last 15 years involving 108 runners.

    Aged 6 or older: 1/33 (so 3% vs 19% aged 3-5).
    NOT ran between 5-10 days over past 12 months: 1/36
    NO top 3 in three recent runs: 1/27.
    NOT ran between 5-25 times in career: 1/32
    NOT won between 3-10 times in career : 1/29.
    NOT ran 6f between 4-25 times: 1/27.
    Last run was in a handicap race: 1/20.

    Mr Lupton is the only one passes all the trends but he is 7/4.

    Of the others Mythmaker (9/2) and Dark Shot (10/1) are the closest so they look the best ones to play.

    Glass Office looked interesting coming back from a 729 day lay off – Simcock has 2nd highest strike rate with horses returning from between 1 and 2 year lay off (min 10 runners) over past few years – but his price has doubled from 10/1 overnight.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 18/06/17 10:21 AM Reply


  • Josh, you looked very unlucky with Hurricane Harry. Much less painful being boxed in and having no clear run as that’s the nature of the 5f sprints!

    Chris Baxendale 18/06/17 10:24 AM Reply


    • Yep… One of those! Wheelan a jumps jockey having a dabble on the flat but had done ok from a few limited rides… the horse was much further forward than I expected and it is possible if ridden by someone else he probably would have been further back and ran into a wall of horses! In an ideal world he would have had cover for longer but he had to go for the gap when it was there – winner received a decent ride.. that is the nature of those races, all split second decisions and why you want a decent price. Loads of carnage on the rail no doubt, I need to watch it again and see if anything worth tracking.
      Yep the nature of those races, you don’t need many to go in at a decent price over time and it is still a ‘test’ for me- last season questionable, and so far this season haven’t hit the board either from a few darts.

      Well done with your big winner yesterday – just goes to show that even 1-3 decent stats can lead to an interesting shortlist…

      Good luck in race above… I did have a quick look at Mythmaker- he could be the pace angle and should be able to lead, probably up against the rail if getting out- that will help him- wasn’t sure if had the class and trainer’s form a slight niggle – in content of being 9/2. But my judgement at that end can be poor, may turn out to be a decent price. Looks competitive little race.

      Josh 18/06/17 10:32 AM Reply


  • 18th June Salisbury 6f Novice
    4.25 Luna eclipse
    3.75 London’s Burning
    3.5
    3.25 Ragstone View, Shabaaby, Billesdon Brook, Nyaleti
    3
    2.75
    2.5 Alba Power
    2.25 Watheer
    2
    Preview – I liked Luna Eclipse on debut and given normal improvement 2to he should take this.
    Selection Luna Eclipse 1 pt win.

    Prior race notes
    Luna Eclipse – Calling and very green in the paddock, well made attractive and rangy type. 75
    Hugh

    alpha2 18/06/17 12:59 PM Reply


  • 4.00 Doncaster

    (Race only started in 2008 so only 9 winners, 123 runners)

    Aged 7 or older: 1/31.
    Ran further than 7f in career: 1/41.

    Not ran 1-4 times in last 90 days: 0/25
    NO place in last three runs: 1/46
    Last time out NOT in top 7: 1/53

    I think that leaves the 11/4 favourite Evergate and Iseemist who is as big as 22/1.
    Those with only one class 3 or higher win are 0/41 so along with his short enough price the favourite is discounted.

    Of the others, Pipers Note, Red Pike, Zanetto, Bossipop and Scofflaw only miss out by one trend i think. Preference of those is for Piper’s Note who is a 7yo. However, since 2014, the trainer Ruth Carr has had more winners in 6f/7f handicaps with horses aged 7 or older than anyone else so worth siding with Pipers Note too at 8/1 IMO.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 18/06/17 1:21 PM Reply


  • Hello, regarding the stats reports,would I be right presuming the 3 year old only handicaps are covered in the 3 year old + section thanks

    michael murphy 19/06/17 8:52 AM Reply


    • Hi Michael…
      In short.. no. 3yo+ races are handicaps open to horses aged 3yo and older. They are very different from 3 yo only races, which are not covered in the main Summer Stats pack and are usually clearly defined… there is a ‘bonus’ guide at the end for 3YO only races, for three tracks in particular where certain trainers have decent records.

      Josh

      Josh 19/06/17 9:32 AM Reply


  • Thanks for reply .

    michael murphy 19/06/17 10:32 AM Reply


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