Free Daily Post: 17/06/17 (complete)

Scottish Sprint Cup ‘preview’

 

Scottish Sprint Cup (handicap)

Stats/Trends

17 years

16/17 Top 8 LTO

16/17 Age 4-6

10 Years (last 10 at Muss,exc 2008 run at York)

10/10 Top 8 LTO

10/10 Age 4-6

10/10 1-7 career wins

9/10 Top 3 at least once last 3 starts

Other…

1 run only this season: 0/28,3p (fresh or ‘hard fit’ seems best)

Track LTO: Epsom – 0/25,8p

Trainers: No multiple winners last 10 years: Barron 0/11,3p, Goldie 0/14,1p

**

Shortlist

Age 4-6, Top 8 LTO, 1-7 career wins… leaves.. (well just the first two of those stats..)

Orion’s Bow / Harry Hurricane / El Astronaute / Gameson 

Harry Hurricane wasn’t top 3 on any of last three runs and has only had one run this turf season, both slight negatives. El A + Gameson tick both those boxes albeit the former ran at Epsom LTO,but the place stats are decent from a small enough sample, Orion’s Bow hasn’t been top 3 on any of last three runs but has had 2+ runs this season.

Test Tips/Preview

This looks tricky. Most of the pace seems low to me, with Stepper Point, El Astronaute and Caspian Prince all that side.  But over this CD they all seem to come to the nearside from memory which means this three will likely be up the middle of the track. Those drawn 6 or lower have won 4 of the last 10. It’s not impossible these three are doing battle from some way out- the question is whether they keep going or set it up for a closer.

Orion’s Bow is the only out and out pace drawn high but he has been running/winning over 6f most of his recent career and I don’t know if this drop back to 5f on decent ground will suit him. If he can get out and bag the rail he should keep going but something is niggling at me, over this specialist distance. It’s his first try over 5f on turf I think and he is on a career high mark, even with the claim. Last win off 97.

El Atronaute – well he ran well the last day but did run in a way which suggests the capper may have him. In any case it looks like he needs more, which could be possible.

For the test tips i will go with…

Gamesome – 1 point win – 9/1 / 8/1 UP

Harry Hurricane – 1 point win – 11/1 , 10/1 2nd, painful- hit front too soon albeit one of those

Both of these will need luck in running and are probably ok EW wagers. They will need the odd gap and both would have been closer in their runs LTO had they had clear runs. They both seem in ok form and tick most of the boxes. No doubt one of the other two will win and I will be cursing for not going 1 point on each.

Do with that as you please.

**

That is all for Saturday.

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. Good to see the pre-race scores for the two races from Sandown yesterday picking out the top three.

    The 2yo races today on most of the cards look poor or impossible to narrow down.

    17th June York 6f Mdn
    4.25 Arbalet, Dark Freedom, Knowing Glance
    3.75 Don Pepe, Knockout Blow, International Man,
    3.5
    3.25 Shaheen
    3
    2.75
    2.5
    2.25 Cathie’s Dream
    1.5 Astraea
    Hugh

  2. 1.50 York QM Cup
    (Last 18 winners)

    8-9 yo 0/34
    LTO did NOT run in Class 2-4 = 1/50
    LTO did NOT run more than 1m2f, less than 2m1f 1/65
    Won further distance 3 or more times = 0/34
    LR or 2nd LR on AW 0/34

    Trends don’t seem very strong here but applying the above leaves us, I think, with Corton Lad, Purple Rock, Mukhayyam, Imshivalla.

    Preference is to side with the Easterby runners :Mukhayyam 11/2 trained by Tim Easterby who is 4 from 9 (44%) in this race winning 3 of last 6 & Purple Rock 9/1 trained by M Easterby who has had 2 winners in this race with 2nd/3rd/4th at big prices in the last 5 years too.

    🙂

  3. 4.25 Sandown
    (20 years, 184 runners)

    3 season runs 0/39
    4+ runs since win 1/34
    Last run, NOT 1m-1m2.5f 0/32

    Again trends not the strongest here but left with War Chief 7/1 & The Statesman 22/1.

    🙂

    1. Great shout Chris…… missed the big prices…got 8s….but happy…cheers.
      I don’t know where you find the time to do these trends stretching back…but great results.

      Cheers.
      Tony Mc.

      1. Thanks, Tony. Hope you had a good day!
        Just looking at Oddschecker there was a big price move from around 22/1 at around 3pm to single figures an hour later. Glad i posted it early and hopefully someone got the big prices!

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