Members Daily Post: 16/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

 

Chep

7.30 – Sheer Intensity  (4yo+) I3 G3 7/1 UP

8.05 – Satchville Flyer  (4yo+) I3 H3 7/1 3rd 

9.05 – Urban Space  (All Hc’s) I3 8/1 UP

 

Good

6.35 – Pastoral Player  (All Hc’s) H1 I3 G3  7/2 UP

 

Sand

2.35 – Sallab  (2yo) 3/1UP

 

York

3.30 – Sun Lover  (All Hc’s, micro TJC) 5/1 2nd

4.05 – Sainted  (micro age) 5/1

4.40 – Theydon Grey  (micro age) H1 4/1 WON 10/3

 

JUMPS

Aintree

6.15 –

Destinys Gold  (HcH) H3  7/1 3rd 

Petrou  (HcH) H3 11/10 WON 4/5

7.55 –

Chieftains Choice  (All Hc’s) 8/1

Ashoka  (HcH) I3 9/2 UP

8.25 – Parsnip Pete  (All Hc’s) I3 15/2 3rd 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

N.Abb

2.45 – Ballybolly  (All Hc’s) I3 10/3

5.30 – Gertie Getaway (NHF)  5/2 UP

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of the Day…

No bet of the day, nothing leaping out at the prices- I like to focus on 6/1+ ‘tipping’ wise, as generally my judgement below that is questionable, in the long term. (you just have to be right a lot more the shorter you go)

Some notes… my eyes were drawn to…

Sainted looked interesting- unexposed, could be anything, yard in form… the ground is just an unknown given he has been kept to soft/heavy. That did put me off at 11/2 but if it isn’t a problem is just the type who may have plenty in hand.

Theydon Grey- again looks interesting. In form, progressive…takes a step up in trip here which is an unknown. On breeding could relish it, or could not stay. 4s felt ok, if not overly generous and he can hold his head high a bit/need cajoling. Could decimate them and is a top rated runner. Should run his race and were he 6s/7s, I would have had a go no doubt. Probably bolt up now.

7.55 – Aintree… both in here look interesting…Skelton’s will like the return to better ground but does now step up in class. Looks progressive. Chieftan’s Choice is interesting but last win off 114 and I wonder if he needs to come down a bit- I don’t think the last race was run to suit- big field/strongly run seems to be more to his liking given his style- comes through horses and takes some time to stoke up. Given his second here at GN meeting,and fact winner went on to win at Ayr, I wouldn’t dismiss him, 8s is decent enough. There is also a Bowen qualifier below who is in form. Plenty of head scratching on that race, always more tricky when multiple quals. And it looks a competitive race.

 

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JUNE TRAINERS

7.55 Aint – Curious Carlos  (any odds, 13/2< best) UP

8.55 Aint – Land of Vic        (any odds, 13/2< best) WON 5/1>11/4

3.30 York – Related  (18<) DNQ

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing at the moment. I will get the Royal Ascot notes etc posted up again over the weekend. And by this time next week all results will be up to date. A week of Royal Ascot and spreadsheets/analysis for me. I need to do more on the flat, and update all jumps/summer jumps etc.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • Hi
    During this week I have posted my Sprinters Dropping back in Distance
    2 from 2
    Friday selections
    8.05 Chep Frank Bridge 7/2
    8.35 Chep Arthurthedelagator 5/1

    Inform Racing Newton Abbot
    5.30 Gaelic Surprise 16/1

    GL
    Mike

    mickeydee 15/06/17 9:07 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, your posts, like everyone else’s, are always appreciated… your sprinter angle… there any other criteria etc? Dropping in trip…

      Josh 15/06/17 9:08 PM Reply


  • Good morning josh

    I’m new on here
    A quick question what are the red H1 H3 I3 on your all qualifiers mean?

    Regards Steve.

    Steve cartwright 16/06/17 8:15 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve,

      Always a good question… I have re posted the ‘Key’ above. In essence they are ratings pointers from three ratings sets which all do something different and are all ‘horse focused’… my stats are trainer based, that’s what the horses qualify against.. so these ratings are there to hopefully add more useful info.

      If you head to the Results tab at top of blog you will see recent results updates, the latter of which is a work in progress.

      The hope is that some clear systematic strategies emerge with the use of these ratings- that you can back with confidence over time and where the bank will steadily build. For the flat it looks like the focus should be on the top rated runners… H1 I1 G1… for systematic betting anyway.

      There is a #1 strategy for the jumps stats as explained in the second results post in the tab above. The G1 G3 ratings have done well over the sticks but I need to update all those results and look at the Summer Jumps also.

      You are free to approach all the content in any way you please, using as a ‘starting point’ adding to your own approach to race analysis etc. I do not advise just backing all qualifiers. Albeit for the Flat and Jumps that has been profitable to date and has been the foundation from which we build.

      Feel free to email me… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk and I can re send any welcome emails etc, or expand more if needed.

      Josh

      Josh 16/06/17 8:41 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I have a horse in my tracker running today, 8.20 fairyh, Thunder Crash, i havent looked back at a re run of race, but noted that it finished well lto,so extra dist should help today, its one of G Lyons first time in a 3yo+ hcap today, hence i thought id give a heads up to you. GL

    jamesm 16/06/17 9:50 AM Reply


    • Hi James, thoughts on any horses you fancy and for whatever reason are always welcome in these parts. GL today. Josh

      Josh 16/06/17 11:34 AM Reply


  • Morning all,

    I’ve been looking in to my test more deeply and in to the method I’m using. I’m having a bit of rethink on how to approach it, so they’ll be no test qualifiers from me for the next week as work on it.

    Good luck today

    Gavin 16/06/17 10:10 AM Reply


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