Members Daily Post: 09/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates et

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

(2 updates from first post, 5.20 B, 8.15 Good) 

 

FLAT

Carlisle 

4.10 – Kensington Star (micro class) H1 I3  9/4 WON 11/4

 

Brighton

3.50 –

Miss Inga Sock (all hncps) 14,30  H1 I3  11/4 WON 2/1

Betsalottie (4yo+, + runs) H3 I3 G3 11/2 UP

4.50 – Shifting Star (4yo+) H1 I1 5/1 UP

5.20-

Andalustie (4yo+, + micro class) H3 G3 9/2 UP

Live Dangerously (4yo+) 5/1 WON 11/2

Ettie Hart (micro age) I3 7/1 UP

 

Goodwood

7.40 – Admiral’s Sunset (all hncps) 30  6/1

8.15 – Berengaria (all hncps) H3 I3  9/2

 

Haydock

6.15 – Merchant of Medici(4yo+)   18/1

8.00-

Chosen Character (all hncps, +4yo+) I3 14/1

La Celebs Ville (all hncps, 4yo+, + micro TJC) H1 G1 7/4

Captain Revelation (all hncps, +4yo+) H3 I1 14/1

Still On Top (micro class + distance) 16/1

8.35 – Golden Glimmer (all hncps, 4yo+, + micro TJC) G3  2/1 

 

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/22,12p, +1.8) (Jumps: 8/54, +25.5) (total: 10/76, +26.3)

None today. Nothing leaping out at me at the prices.

If you have read the results update you may note the success of ‘double/treble top rated’ runners… 5/14, +10. Shifting Star and La Celebs Ville tick those boxes today.

What is looking like a potential #1 strategy for the Flat, Top Rated (any) 6/1+ morning prices, (high % place also) would point towards Captain Revelation as a ‘system bet’ .

 

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No June Quals.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS

Flat 2017 Update: HERE>>>>

That is part 1. I think it is a ‘must read’ – it looks like, systematically at least, that it is the TOP RATED runners (H1 I1 G1) where we may be best focusing.

I need to work out of there is a decent systematic ‘way in’ for ‘All Qualifiers’.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • I bloody hate rule 4 had Jukebox Jive at 7/1 and got hit with 30p Rule 4 I’ve been at this a long time, I know it’s because they have to make a new market (to make their books balance, to make their bloody profit) but if they give you a price no matter what they should pay you out at that price. If they are going to do a rule 4 I think no matter what horse gets withdrawn it should be no more then 10p in the pound and even then that is really too much the robbing gits!!! It just gets right on my tits 😀

    RANT OVER 🙂

    Gavin 08/06/17 7:14 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    A couple of additions,

    5.20 Bri – Ettie Hart (micro age)

    8.15 Good – Berengaria (All Hc’s)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 08/06/17 7:15 PM Reply


    • Ah I was just making sure you were still with us Mike! 🙂 Missed Channons- Johnston’s – wrongly assumed was a 3 y o only race! Will blame my ‘spreadsheet’ eyes. Cheers

      Josh 08/06/17 8:02 PM Reply


  • Good morning Josh and all,

    My test qualifiers

    FLAT
    Carlisle
    4.10 – Kensington Star (micro class) H1 I3 37% 15/8+ price taken 9/4

    Brighton
    3.50 –
    Miss Inga Sock (all hncps) 14,30 H1 I3 58% 13/8+ price taken 11/4
    4.50 – Shifting Star (4yo+) H1 I1 31% 9/4+ price taken 5/1
    5.20- Andalustie (4yo+, + micro class) H3 G3 22% 10/3+ price taken 6/1

    Goodwood
    7.40 – Admiral’s Sunset (all hncps) 30 24% 3/1+ price taken 6/1
    8.15 – Berengaria (all hncps) H3 I3 17% 9/2+ price taken 5/1

    Haydock
    8.00- Captain Revelation (all hncps, +4yo+) H3 I1 30% 5/2+ price taken 14/1

    Good luck for today

    Gavin 09/06/17 9:31 AM Reply


  • Two track micros to look for today – Dascombe runners at Haydock (5) and Mark Johnston runners at Goodwood (2).

    Also Many Dreams at Brighton, 4.50, for Gary Moore but not a great price and also Leonidas in the 5.55 Go expected to go well.

    Good luck today.

    martin colwell 09/06/17 12:20 PM Reply


  • hi josh . i joined members club around march time , you did so well i thought this was the answer to my trial and error, with previous systems i tried, but over the last 2 months ,things are not good, can you tell me why.

    trevknight 09/06/17 12:46 PM Reply


    • Hi Trev…
      Well that is a complex question. And no doubt you are not alone.

      A general point – any approach that has no odds caps and generally focuses on 6/1, 7/1, 10/1+ will be very up and down in the short term. It is all about the long term, in my eyes anyway.

      Firstly I do need to re cap on the main ‘jumps’ stats and esp the #1 strategy but that had been doing very very well. It depends how you approach the stats etc and I have tried to explain carefully how to do that- esp jumps through last results update but I never know if I am doing enough.

      The Flat… as I stressed at the beginning and have tried to do a few times since is that they are experimental – I haven’t done those in that way before and I did stress extreme caution, esp for any ‘strategies’ in the sense that we just did not know. With that results update as above there is at least a picture starting to form and some potential strategies around the Top rated runners. Backing all qualifiers, while not advised, has done ok. And that is the foundation.

      Summer Jumps- again I need to look at but it was researched on same basis as winter jumps so in theory, over time, it should do ok.

      In general… Yep it hasn’t been great since March… well the Festival tips during that week did rather well. +63 points or so.

      My own ‘bet of the day’ as above, again while a test, is doing ‘ok’ albeit on a losing run. That is another 26 points. So that is 89 points or so ‘tipping’ give or take here and there, since Day 1 of Festival.

      It does depend on how you engage in the content and I have always been free to discuss such things if you are not finding a away to suit you,.

      There is the ‘information’ side as well. A few members have done very well with the Big Meeting Notes, esp Chester, Dante, and odd Epsom winner. Again I could make do more on that to help steer/discuss horses more.

      It is about patience and trust. Which is linked to the content. As with all things it can be about timing also.

      It depends what ‘the answer’ for you is, and what your expectations are.

      I, and my approach given odds, will have some big swings sadly, but it is about long term success on the personal level/how you approach content.

      How have you been approaching all the content? And what does success look like for you long term? I may be able to add some more meat to the bones…

      I am under no illusion that the last couple of months could have been better but I trust the general approach and can only work my hardest to make it the best it can be, in terms of advised strategies, the bet of the day, big meeting notes etc.

      Josh

      Josh 09/06/17 1:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I thought that I’d add my thoughts to your reply to Trev. If you recall I wrote to you in March letting you know that I’d made about £1,000 following the Trainer stats with speed ratings. Sadly since then most of that profit has disappeared. Whilst it’s a bit disheartening you just have to accept that losing runs are part and parcel of this game.

    A couple of years ago I joined Nicky Doyle’s Bet Alchemist service on the back of 12 profitable months out 13. I couldn’t have picked a worse time to join and 10 months later I was down 200 points and was on the verge leaving, but stuck with it. 18 months later all the losses have disappeared and I’m 125 points up.

    If you leave a service every time it has a losing run then it will be very difficult to make a profit in the long run. The Trainer stats don’t have the long term winning track record that Bet Alchemist has, but I like the thinking behind it, so I’m prepared to give it 12 months.

    steved 09/06/17 8:55 PM Reply


    • Hi Steve, such thoughts are always welcome in these parts…
      Ah, well that is annoying on the win then loss front.. may I ask how you have been approaching the content etc, jumps/summer jumps/flat ?
      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh 10/06/17 10:00 AM Reply


  • I’m using the same bank for the jumps and summer jumps and a separate one for the flat. I haven’t really cottoned to any specific difference between jumps and summer jumps. I presume the methodology is the same except that the summer jumps info is just based on the summer jumping stats.

    steved 10/06/17 10:41 AM Reply


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