Members Daily Post: 08/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates et

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ripon

3.00 –

Maraakib (4yo+, + micro going) 3/1 UP

Jacbequick (4yo+, + micro going) I1 G1  8/1 UP

3.30 – Kharbetation (4yo+, + micro going) H3  7/2

 

Haydock

2.40- Gift In Time (2yo) 14 9/2 2nd 

 

Sandown

6.00 – Glaceon (2yo) 5/1

 

Carlisle 

6.40 – Fabella Bere (2yo) 8/1

8.20 – Cape of Glory (micro TJC+ micro class) H3 13/2

 

Bonus

2.10 Hayd – Legato (3yo) 12/1 3rd 12/1

 

JUMPS

Bangor 

3.20 – Barrys Jack (all hncps)  I3  9/2

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (i

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/21,11p, +2.8) (Jumps: 8/54, +25.5) (total: 10/75, +27.3)

 

2.10 Haydock – Legato – 1 point win – 12/1 (Bet365/SkyB/PP) 11/1 (gen) 3rd 12/1 *

*well he has ran his race there, another placed horse for the flat ‘tips’. No complaints. I think he has handled the ground fine- maybe he just always runs as if he wants further, albeit they have all bumped into one there. Moving on. 

 

I will go with the 3YO bonus stats for today’s bet of the day. Come rain or shine Dascombe does the business at Haydock over the course of the season and usually pops up with a decent priced winner or three. This one is unexposed and making handicap debut. Dascombe is 4/22,5 places with all handicap debutants at the track which offers some encouragement. On all of his maiden runs the horse has run as if he wants to go further and he gets stepped up in trip here. He could not stay, or it could be the key to him. The ground is a niggle here, as it is for quite a few of the field. This could be soft come race time and it is simply an unknown. Having watched his last race while he doesn’t have a fully rounded action, it isn’t a fast ground ‘daisy cutter’ action either, which offers some hope. The trainer is 4/13,6 places with his 12f runners at the track and with any luck can build on that here. I have the doubt/unknown, but given his profile and more importantly his price, I am best not over thinking it. He could get stuck in the mud. He could sluice up. I’ll roll the dice.

 

There is rain forecast everywhere it seems so another of those days where it may be best assuming it will be soft in most places come race time. As always at this stage in the morning you are guessing a bit.

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Quick note on Hannon’s at Sandown. Without going through all 2 YO track micros I suspect his is one of the strongest micros on that front…

R Hannon: 27 bets / 8 wins / 15 places / 30% sr / +30 SP / +38 BFSP /AE 2.26

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June Trainers

4.20 Bangor – Princess Roania (any odds)

 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS…

Part one of the latest results update will be up on Thursday. I have completed the main spreadsheet for the Flat for all quals and need to pull together the Ratings Pointers one.

The top level stats are fine I think.

412 bets / 52 wins / 88 further placed horses / 140 won|places / 13% win /34% w|p / +36 points early odds (as on blog post) / -57 ISP / -8 BFSP

If a handful of those 88 placed horses had won those stats would look much better. But, as with the Jumps, it looks like it is a solid foundation. Now just to home in on the best way to profit from them/reduce bets/focus etc etc.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • Morning,

    I have no qualifiers for my test today.

    Gavin 08/06/17 8:52 AM Reply


    • what’s your test, Gavin?

      aallen 08/06/17 10:11 AM Reply


      • I match the stats with my and anthers online, look at percent change of winning and if there is value in bet on the horse.

        Gavin 08/06/17 7:03 PM Reply


  • HI,

    I see that the Greatrex micro (I think it was you Josh?) is going well. May to August inc, NHF and Hurdles runners (That is how I have interpreted it) id 20+ EV to date. I am following it blondly as I do these things.

    martin colwell 08/06/17 12:03 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin, I don’t think that was me so won’t take any credit! Could be mistaken but don’t think it was – but i do recall something like that being posted by someone. Glad it is going well.

      Josh 08/06/17 12:08 PM Reply


    • Martin
      Can you elaborate on the Greatex Micro I had it in folder and seem to have lost/deleted it.
      Cheers

      Mike

      mickeydee 08/06/17 12:25 PM Reply


      • You back Warren Greatrex runners blindly in hurdle or NHF races in the period May to August inclusive. So far + 20 to level stakes. Simple one to follow.

        martin colwell 08/06/17 4:58 PM Reply


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