Members Daily Post: 06/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Chepstow

2.30 – Imperial Link (3yo+) G3 22/1 UP 8/1

4.00 – Many Waters (micro age + runs) H3 I1  4/1

5.30 –

Mr Caffrey (all hncps) 33/1 |UP

Taroum (all hncps) 50/1 UP

Petrify (micro distance) I3  12/1

 

Yarmouth

None.

 

JUMPS

Fontwell 

5.50 –

Dites Rein (all hncps+hncp hurdle) H1 I3  5/2 

Willyegolassiego (all+hncp hurdle)  H3 4/1 2nd

Sisania (micro age) 9/1 UP

7.20 – Highbury High (all hncps) H3 7/2 UP

8.50- Represented (NHF) 4/1

 

Southwell 

6.05 – Elkstone (all hncps) 11/2 UP

6.35 –

Gold Ignot (all hncps + micro dist) 15/2 WON 15/2

Smoking Jacket (hncp chase)  I1  13/2 UP

Honkytonktennessee (micro runs) H1 10/3 2nd 

8.35 –

Sikandar (hncp hurdle) 11/1 UP

Ashoka (micro runs) H3 I1  6/1 UP

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/20,11p, +2.8) (Jumps: 8/54, +25.5) (total: 10/74, +28.3)

Bet of The Day –

 

2.30 Chepstow – Imperial Link – 1 point win – 33/1 (PP) 28/1 (betstars) 22/1 (in places) 20/1 (gen) UP 8/1*

*hmm. How disappointing. Always more annoying when one gets well backed, but not to be. Very strange run- well it wasn’t her running at all, effectively pulled up. Not sure if something went amiss but no excuse with conditions, looked plenty soft enough and she had run well at the track before. Odd. One to keep an eye on but that was poor. I won’t say she is just out of form as she ran ok LTO, but went backwards here. Best forget about that one. 

 

This horse looks the most interesting to me at the prices today. With 4 places to aim at currently I wouldn’t put you off an EW bet at the prices. I am hoping she makes all, doesn’t see another rival, and leaves the rest floundering in the mud. The rain has arrived at Chepstow making the ground soft and there could be some more showers on the way. The softer the better for this mare. In flat handicaps she is 2/4,2 places, +11.00, on soft and heavy. On Good to Soft or better she is 0/9, 1 place. I think she has a preference. She is worth adding to the notebook as she is 2/4 at Leicester and it may be that is where she is happiest. If she doesn’t win today I suspect she will find a soft/heavy ground race to win there at some point during the season. She comes here 5lb below her last win and there were signs of life LTO. She finished the race off ok, going forwards rather than backwards, on ground that is far from ideal. This is the first time she has had her ground since her last win in July, 10 starts ago. In a race where most others in here have questions over the going she could skip away with her light weight. She likes to make all and should give any backers a run for their money, at least until a couple of furlongs out. There may be some better treated/more progressive rivals in here but ‘Chepstow soft’ can be a great leveller. She is also a #1 qual on the most trusted of ratings, geegeez. I would like to see some money come for her but in any case mine is down.

 

June Trainers

none.

 

Notebook Horses

I should try and get in the habit of noting any horses that caught the eye- these could be TTP picks that didn’t win, or other horses in their races that looked interesting. Add these to any trackers if you wish and we can see how they get on.

With that said there were three that caught the eye at Thirsk mainly because after the rain there appeared to be a track bias- all of the action appeared to happen on the far side, or the low numbers if running on the straight track. With that in mind…

Buccaneers Vault- ran for the Midgley June angle and given how this played out he didn’t stand much chance, but still ran very well. He was marooned up the middle for the most part with the placed horses on the far side, a bit away from him. He somewhat decimated the middle to high numbers and were he drawn low I suspect he may have gone very close. He looks in form to me and you would think his canny trainer would find an opening. If he appears this month he will be a June system pick anyway.

Mango Chutney – anther for TTP who ran a decent, if well beaten, third. I hadn’t taken much note until Mr Geegeez (Matt B) tweeted about the draw at Thirsk over the round course/big fields etc. Low drawn numbers have a shocking record when soft and if you look at the result you will see he is the only low drawn horse to make the top 5. I don’t know for what reason that may be but possibly this run could be marked up. They all bumped into one here but he ran a decent race, and an even better one if taking that draw info etc at face value.

Kroy – one who caught the eye when watching another race, in first time headgear. I doubt he will be missed next time but it was another race on the straight track where the place to be was low. He was drawn very high and for the most part of the race was on the nearside/high. He edged over in the final stages but again you would think that if he was drawn lower he may well have won this. He looks to be coming to the boil and if the headgear works again could be winning soon.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

None.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • wide awake silly o’clock so a quick trawl around a few betting sites and Zaria 2-30 Chepstow seems to be tipped in a few places currently 14-1 Skybet. 14.0 BF , i’ve thrown a couple of quid on so it will be interesting to see how it goes.
    on a broader note my high risk strategy took a hammering fri.sat,sun but Vercingetorix 4pts @12.5 and Stake Acclaim 2pts @11.41 yesterday halted the slide and put a few quid back in the bank a few more of them this week please Josh as i’m off on my hols monday .

    martin whittle 06/06/17 6:28 AM Reply


  • Imperial Link is now 11/1 with b365 10’s in general

    Gavin 06/06/17 9:13 AM Reply


    • yep appears the money is pouring on, and no real surprise. Looks like she will go 8s soon, and only a 10p Rule 4 so far. Good job as in handicaps 8/1< SP she is 2/8,4p, bigger than this SP.. 0/17,0p... market tends to guide it seems. Given the ground it is no shock and market suggests it is an open race-no steamers/shorties as such that look really fancied. Not yet anyway.

      Josh 06/06/17 9:31 AM Reply


  • My test qualifiers for today

    Fontwell
    5.50 – Willyegolassiego (all+hncp hurdle) H3, 51% evens+ price taken 11/4
    7.20 – Highbury High (all hncps) H3 47%, evens+ price taken 11/4

    Good luck all

    Gavin 06/06/17 9:31 AM Reply


  • Imperial Link I was on at 40s last night. ew.
    Only good price if it comes in of course.

    Mike

    mickeydee 06/06/17 10:11 AM Reply


  • Gamble alert!! Crazy money for Imperial Link

    Sadly, I was not an early bird and it is probably worth laying now at 7’s!

    A day off for me anyway, having done my proverbial brains lately.

    Wish I’d got the value on this absolute steamer – good luck if you’re on!

    aallen 06/06/17 1:08 PM Reply


    • Ah shame you missed the price.. holding steady/drifting tad now, probably lay of goes off bigger than 8s! Been a late jockey switch it seems also, albeit Ben Robbinson is worth his 7lb but doesn’t know the horse like other one did. We shall see. We will find out soon enough.

      Josh 06/06/17 1:31 PM Reply


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