Members Daily Post: 01/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Hamilton

3.00-

Casterbridge (micro TJC) H1 I1 G3  7/2 UP

Sir Domino (micro going + age) I1  16/1 UP

3.30 – Spes Nostra (4yo+) I3  14/1

4.30 –

Colour Contrast (4yo+) 11/2 UP

Archipeligo (4yo+)  G1 15/2 2nd 7/2 

 

JUMPS

Ffos Las 

6.30 –

Belmount (all hncps+hncp chase+micro TJC) H1 I3  11/4 UP

Abracadabra Sivola (hncp chase) H3 I3 8/1 UP

Gone Too Far (hncp chase) 20/1 UP

9.00 – Bring Back Charlie (all hncps + micro TJC) I3  6/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/18,10p, +4.8) (Jumps: 8/53, +26.5) (total: 10/71, +31.3)

 

3.00 Hamilton – Sir Domino – 1 point win – 16/1 (general) UP 33/1*

*hmmm. Big drift, slow out the stalls,never really looked comfortable. Less said about that the better. Maybe ground too quick in the end but at that price happy to take a chance. There will be other days for him. 

It is anecdotal but odds/lack of market support doesn’t concern me too much with the runners from this yard as they seem to drop in at all prices, albeit if this one takes a walk to 20s+ we may know our fate. There are just a few positives which at that price i couldn’t ignore.

He is joint top rated on on Inform ratings and these look like they are starting to kick into gear for us. Well, yesterday’s I1 runners were 3 / 1 (8/1) / UP/ UP/1 (9/4) / 1 (11/1) .. about +18 if you had backed the lot. They are getting interesting at least. But that’s an aside, we will know more when I get on top of all results/analysis etc

Back to the horse… well he is 2/15,6p in his flat career so isn’t exactly over-raced. He won on his second start of the season last year, same again? He is on the same mark for his last win. He has won at C4 and is 1/4,3p over Course And Distance. He clearly likes it here. He is also 2/6,4 places when returning in 8-15 days from last run… this looks significant considering with 16+ days rest he is 0/15,3p all other runs. He does like a bit of cut and there are some showers forecast. For our chances I hope they arrive. But, at those odds, I won’t leave him just on a ground niggle. They have had rain and it won’t be fast. If the ground is unsuitable I would think he gets pulled out. Headgear also returns which he has run well in although I don’t think he is tricky. But it is doing something different. So, I think there is enough there. He may well race more prominently also and there is some pace on.

The fav is also a TTP qualifier- those odds were skinny enough for me given his stamina is unproven over 6f, and this is stiff enough and he has yet to win from a mark this high. If he stays he goes close, but he does have to answer that question.

**

Of the others… Well Colour Contrast was short enough for me for a horse with not a single ratings pointer- I am not sure I can out-think them on that scale and when I do I want a bigger price I think.

Archipeligo…hmmm. A bit like Crosse Fire whereby I can feel the splinters from my fence sitting. I can see why he is being backed. His turf mark is plummeting- he has dropped 9lb from his last turf run which was only a couple of starts ago. And the turf run before that was over CD off 72! Runs off 59 here. He has plenty in his favour and will maybe hose up. The niggle… well it is his recent form and the fact that he has won/gone close in similar conditions at Wolverhampton before- as such I was struggling to excuse his most recent runs. He does just look out of sorts. Recent conditions should not have been an excuse. If he has awful AW form in general, and was now returning to turf etc, I would be having a good go I think, as that would be an excuse for poor recent form. Maybe this is just a plot/set up and I am over-thinking it. Three horses in here are way ahead on Geegeez speed figs, him plus Haymarket and Billy Bond. On those figures one of these three is winning this. The gap from them to the rest is big.

So, we shall see. If he is back to his best I think he goes very very close. Something niggling at me but you have seen how I get the fence sitting wrong every now and then.

**

#1 Strategy… well a decent 1/4, +8 points from that yesterday. Hopefully something to build on and we may yet have a very fruitful summer. Roll on June.

**

3.Any general messages/updates etc

June Trainers.

READ POST HERE>>>

Qualifiers

8.30 Ffos Las – Tony Star (any odds, 13/2< dynamite)

**

Epsom Derby Meeting: Trainer Notes

READ HERE>>>

*

FREE Epsom/Royal Ascot Magazine… if you missed my email yesterday you can READ THAT HERE>>> and sign up for this great freebie, + a couple of AOB angles for Royal Ascot.

 

**

Finally… I forgot to mention that ‘my’ horse Blessed To Empress runs again tonight in the 6.10 at Chelmsford. She hated being held onto the last day and instructions are to let her just get on with it if she wants to. That could mean getting into a battle with Johnston’s horse and setting it up for a closer, but so be it. She hasn’t yet learnt to race behind horses it seems and there is little point pulling her back, lighting her up, and wasting energy that way. It looks a competitive little heat and will be fascinating to see how she gets on. It is another +10k race and with any luck will pick up some more prize money. 

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

2 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Two I1s in the 3.00 Hamilton , is that joint top rated ?

    geoffwylde 01/06/17 8:40 AM Reply


    • Yep they both have the same figure, so joint top. I think that is the best way to record them and have done so with Geegeez odd time there is the same figure. I did check I haven’t made a typo. Josh

      Josh 01/06/17 9:32 AM Reply


Post A Reply