A ‘Quick’ Word From Me
Welcome and thanks for taking the time to read what follows.
UPDATE: What follows was first published on June 30th 2016. I am writing this update note in May 2017. As luck would have it this post would jinx it’s author for the next few months. But, given he is having one of his barmy months where he is tipping big winners left, right and centre, I thought it worth sharing again. He may not thank me for that mind! With that said…
Gary has posted a comment below with updated P/L figures etc…
Today I have a special guest post for you, from arguably the best free tipster around- Gary Priestley (indeed as I write he has just tipped another 14/1 winner, on top of 25/1 x2 and 14/1 winners since he first emailed me his thoughts below- and probably a few I have missed also!)
I know you will enjoy it and with any luck take something away to apply to your own betting.
There are many reasons why I blog on these pages; to inform, to try and entertain, to provide profitable information/insight (yes, despite recent weeks, the long term trend is one of profit 🙂 – patience will be rewarded at some point albeit I hope I don’t have to wait until the mud starts flying again in November!) and I suppose to share my betting journey with you – the highs, the lows, the frustrations, the mental anguish. And I relish the engagement/comments from your good selves, many of you know how to tip a decent priced winner.
The most satisfying moments for me are hearing your success stories from your own bets, using information/stats/views shared on here – whether it be my own approach, or advice as to services/tools that may help. (GEEGEEZ GOLD being the main drum I bang on that front, and for good reason, followed by HorseRaceBase )
Like you, I have much to learn about this great game of ours. In a sport that is always changing and one that is so complex (THE most complex?) there will always be new/different things to learn.
Now, I get it wrong more than I get it right. I am always eager to improve- and there is much to improve on.
I am eager to learn about the approach of other punters – what makes them successful, and what I may be able to apply to my own betting.
I can enjoy following other people’s tips – but personally I like to know why a horse is fancied/what the approach is – not a view shared by all bettors of course. If a tipster is making you money, many won’t care why the horse is selected. But, that makes it more enjoyable for me.
So, where better place to start than with the king of Twitter Tipping – Gary Priestley
I have followed Gary on Twitter for a couple of years now I suspect. (I should add I haven’t followed many of his tips- more fool me) Those of you who know my own back story will be aware that I lost a lot of money in my first year at University on the horses before stumbling across Geegeez. From there I discovered the likes of Gary’s brother, Gavin (nag-nag-nag) and the likes of Ben Aitken (narrowing-the-field).
Matt, Gavin and Ben have taught me plenty over the years. And now, it is Gary’s turn.
Before I hand over to him, let’s just have a look at his ‘numbers’ since he started tipping on Twitter in March 2013 through to 20th June 2016 (improved a bit more since he sent me this article- another 50+ points or so I think)
- 3084 selections / 195 winners / 520 places (excluding winners) / 715 wins/places / +1286.91 points / +£12, 869.10 p (to £10 stakes- maybe I should start following them!)
Over To Gary…. (in his own words…)
My methods are tried and tested over many years and have brought me great success at some of the biggest meetings going, as well as the lowest grade handicap hurdles.
I first got into betting in the mid 1980’s. My dad owned his own chain of betting shops, my sister worked for him as did Gavin my older brother, now owner of the popular blog site nag-nag-nag and writer of the TTS & Festival Trends.
I left school in 1987 to work for my dad doing the board marking in the good old days of extel. Then in 1990 Gavin and myself set up on our own as Gee & Gee Turf-Accountants based in Paignton Devon.
We had a shop in Poole in Dorset as well as Trecco Bay in Porthcawl, and a more local shop in Torquay. We sold the business in 2001 to Jennings Racing when it all went computerised.
In those good old days there was no Racing Post, just the Sporting Life, and they had a marker sheet for settlers to write the results down. That marker sheet had ratings on it, an example below…
Name LY TY
RED 86 84
BLUE 83 78
BLACK 98 67
BLUE 81 79
GREEN 68 73
My very first bet using this method was a 5pew L31.
- The first horse was called Burrie Walk and he won at 33-1.
- The 2nd finished 2nd at 16-1
- The 3rd won at 33-1
- The 4thl horse was Neblin in the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury. He won at 10-1.
- My last one finished 2nd in a photo at 10-1
I got £1350 for my £3.10 stake. Bearing in mind I was working as an 18yo for £75p/w I’d just won 18 weeks wages for £3.10.. I was hooked…
The basic starting point…
Back to those marker sheets and their ratings…
Name LY TY
RED 86 84
BLUE 83 78
BLACK 98 67
BLUE 81 79
GREEN 68 73
As you can see from the example RED had achieved the highest rating so far that season with BLACK the lowest.
But, BLACK, on one of his runs from last season achieved a mark higher than RED has achieved this season.
So my thinking was as follows…
IF BLACK was to run to that mark of 98 he would win this race easily.
That is very much how my mind still works today, but without Sporting Life doing it for me.
So, how do I find the right races/horses to focus on?
The problem comes when you have 7 meetings in a day and 56 races because each race can take an hour if done properly so I need a very quick method of reducing the number of races involved. I follow these basic rules…
- Look through the racecard discarding any race that isn’t a handicap
- Discard any race that is a handicap but is either a 2yo nursery or a 3yo only handicap
- Discard any race with less than 7 runners declared as this reduces the ew terms but also limits the value
- Discard any all aged handicaps with more than 4 3yos running as that produces too many unknowns.
In general that would leave around 10 races per day.
On the Flat…Over time I’ve come to realise I have a great deal more success in 5-6-7F handicaps as opposed to 10-16F handicaps
Over jumps…In NH races I tend to fair much better in 2-3mile h’cap hurdles and less well in 3m+ H’cap chases.
Of those 10 races that are left I like to see a runner who’s on the up, winning his last 2 or 3 races and a short price.
That scenario presents a great opportunity to find some value elsewhere.
The horse who’s gone up 15lb for winning 2 or 3 races, unless he’s a strong improving 3yo, can’t sustain that improvement. They reach a ceiling but are massively over-bet by fav backers.
Those kind of races I see as opportunities.
Next, I flip the market on its head and start with the outsiders.
I’m looking for a horse who:-
- likes conditions,
- has won off a higher mark than todays
- has a significant jockey booking
- or been running over distances or on ground they can’t possibly win off.
When all these factors are put together you might have a race where nothing stands out so you leave the race alone.
You may have 2 or 3 that meet the criteria and that’s when you dig deeper into form.
Now for me, if I find a runner who has 4 or 5 things in his favour but something major against him, but he’s 33-1, then it’s worth the risk. At 16-1 he may not be worth the risk.
Again, that’s where discipline comes into it.
You need to say – ok for me he’s a 20-1 chance, I’ll take 16s but nothing shorter and if he’s 14-1 then you leave him but if he’s 33-1 then that’s the value!
On my site everything I tip is 1pt ew singles.
No multiples, no 3pts on this, 1/2pt on that.
The ONLY way to win consistently is level stakes singles.
On my figures since starting on twitter in March 2013 , up to the 20th June 2016 as I write I’ve had…
3084 selections with 195 winners. For some that’s quite a low S/R of 1;15.81
But, when you see the average odds of those 195 winners is 17.34/1 you see doing win only you’d still be in profit.
Throw in all the placed runners and those figures massively improve to 3084 selections with 195 winners & 520 places giving 715 returns at average odds of 20.20/1
That means 1 in 4.31 bets are placed, to provide an overall profit of +1286.91pts
Or £12869.10 to £10 stakes.
So, remember the golden rules
- EW Level Stakes
- Keep to the game plan
- Above all be disciplined
All the best & Happy Punting
You can find all of Gary’s tips, for free, at the web link below..
Some Questions to Gary…
Following Gary’s informative piece above I had a couple of initial questions that came to mind. Below you can find what I asked him, with his response…
What do you class as a significant jockey booking?
For me significant jockey isn’t about the trainer/jock relationship etc but more about whether the jockey has won on the horse before but not ridden him for last 8 races for example, but back on board today – things like that.
What tools do you use, if any? I am a HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Gold user – do you use such things or just the RacingPost/Sporting Life online?
I use the Racing post website and my own knowledge and memory. If I could get into using Geegeez Gold it would probably make my life easier but I’m not into all the tech and find it too complicated.
Are you a big tracker of horses?
Probably one of my biggest mistakes is I don’t write anything down so I do miss the odd one as I don’t use trackers etc. What needs to be remembered is I get a lot of criticism for doing the same horse over & over. My answer to that is if it was well treated last week but finished 7th and got dropped 2lb for that run, it’s even better treated now so I’m not going to stop doing him just because he lost. Secret Witness is the worst case scenario of this – formerly rated 100 now only 60 he keeps running ok but can’t win a race. I do need to give up on him!!
OVER TO YOU…
Like me, when reading the above, some questions may have popped into your head.
So, if you have any questions for Gary, or any comments in general, feel free to post a comment below.
Gary has kindly agreed to answer a few of them. So, fire away. I will collate them/narrow them down and post his response in due course. I am sure he is more likely to answer your questions if some donations head the way of the Injured Jockeys Fund above 🙂
Thanks for reading,
p.s a plug of my own… you can grab my new free report for the Flat season 2017 HERE>>> (qualifiers posted for free in daily posts,2/6,+16 points in 12 days so far)