Members Daily Post: 23/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT 

Nottingham

5.00 – Miracle Garden (4yo+) 9/2

 

Brighton

3.50- Becca Campbell (all hncps) 14 H3,I3,G1  10/3

4.20 –

Live Dangerously (4yo+) I3 12/1

Megalala (4yo+) G1 14/1

It’s A Sheila Thing (micro TJC/going) 12/1

Sir Jack (micro going) 7/1

4.50 –

Piccola Poppy (4yo+, + micro runs) 25/1

Ettie Hart (micro age) I3 9/1

5.20 – Fairy Mist (4yo+) G1  7/1

5.50 –

Essaka (micro going) I3, G3 8/1

Jersey Breeze (micro age)  H3, G1  6/1

 

JUMPS

Huntingdon

6.05 – Sisania (all hncps+hncp hurdle) 14/1

7.05 –

Royal Battalion (all hncps+hncp hurdle+micro age) I3 13/2

Pongo Twistleton (all hncps) H1, I3  2/1

8.05 –

Sebastian Beach (all hncps) I1 8/1

Golanova (all hncps) 13/2

The Two Amigos (micro TJC) H3 7/1

 

Hexham

6.15 – Down Time (all hncps) 7/1

6.45 – Next Hight (hncp hurdle) 30  80/1

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

**

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/13,9p, +9.8) (Jumps: 8/52, +27.5) (total: 10/65, +37.3)

Well Monday’s both drifted and ran as such, they may well still be running. Poor. Moving on. It was pleasing to see an ‘I1/I3’ have a ‘#1’ strategy winner in general and over the sticks,hopefully the first of many but time will tell.

 

4.50 Bright- Ettie Hart – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen)

5.20 Bright- Fairy Mist – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen)

5.50 Bright- Jersey Breeze – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/WH) 5/1 (gen)

6.15 Hex – Down Time – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen)

 

Well days like this put most things, and especially entertainment pursuits such as horse racing, into context but we must soldier on. It’s hard not to feel numb and a bit empty.

To the horses…

This day feels like it is going to go one of two ways I think, albeit I would take one winner from that quartet. Sometimes I look through the days qualifiers and you wonder if any will place, sometimes you look through and think a case can be made for plenty. I would be surprised if there are not a few winners dotted around today, famous last words!

Ettie Hart – maybe the first of a Channon double! This one is having her third run back from a break where she has run ok from right out the back the last twice, ridden by an inexperienced claimer who is 3/50 in his career to date. I found it interesting that Charles Bishop takes over here and having looked through her form she has also often gone from the front/raced prominently. I suppose I had a hunch that they may be about to change tactics with her and on her third start of the season, having also dropped down a couple of pounds, may go close. I think she will be better positioned than the last day. Conditions look fine, she has stayed well enough over 8f before without winning as yet, and I was happy to take a chance at 7s.

Fairy Mist – yes yes, he is 10 but I was finding it hard to ignore his geegeez speed figure in this compared to the others and the fact that he ran his best race for a little while LTO, returned to turf. He has a 4lb swing with the fav, who may well improve again but isn’t sure to, and while I am not a classic ‘weights and measures’ punter, in theory if they run the same race that puts them very close together, and may be enough to swing it. Because of cause, they’ll run the same race again! This looks a poor race and for me if he does repeat that run LTO he will go close to taking this, and as such at 7/1 he was another who was worth a nibble for me. That consistency is admirable at this level and he is a few pounds below his last winning mark. We have seen with a few of Bridger’, esp Megalala, how he can keep these ageing warriors sweet. 

Jersey Breeze – at some point she may show herself to be very well handicapped. This is her third run back after a year or so off. She has been running over 7f which I am not convinced she stays, and has been held up and given ‘quiet’ rides. She drops in trip here and in class. Her mark has come down 6lbs in the last two runs. Job done.  They pitched her into the G3 Albany Stakes in 2015 and the fact they persevered over the last year through injury suggests they must like her/think she has some value as a race horse still. The jockey changes and she is some way clear at the top on the speed figures, even more so than Fairy Mist. I get the feeling she could decimate these and she has been nibbled at. We shall see, 11/2, 5/1 seemed fair in this field. 

Down Time- Another fascinating contender here, to my eye. I find it interesting that they return to fences. That was the main difference. He is 2/13,3p as a chaser, most of those from his Irish days. He has only run twice over fences for Ellison, arguably in far from ideal conditions. His first chase run for him he was rated 109. His second 102, and that was a good few runs back. He returns to fences off 88 here. His last chase win was off 96. So, he is well handicapped, and hasn’t exactly been over raced over fences. The headgear changes again also, the visor returning this time. Those above him in the market are ageing a bit/have many more miles on the clock. And, he has been running ok over hurdles also. I am not sure he quite stays 3m3f but there has been the odd glimmer of hope. I wondered if Danny may boot him out in front and play catch me if you can. So, they could change tactics. All of these things together made him of interest to me at 7/1. IF he returned to his best chasing form he would make that look big. 

 

So, there are reasons why all of these could run better than recent form. Solid, logical reasons in my own mind. The prices all look a shade of value to my sometimes questionable eyes. We shall see how they go.

A quick mention for some others.. Megalala is a #1 strat qual, as is Live Dangerously. That approach is still in ‘test’ mode I suppose on the Flat and come the end of the month I will get all the results in order etc/analysis. I wouldn’t fall of my seat if the 16 year old went close today. Again top on the speed figures and he should come on from that last run. But he is 16. It is hard to be over confident with one that age and you would think younger legs would get him. But he will try and make all I suspect.

Piccola Poppy is unexposed and makes handicap debut. The trainer is 0/11,3p with those types but I looked at his record with 1st time headgear.. 3/98. 0/36,4p with the visor. That did put me off. It strikes as desperation and she hasn’t done anything in maidens- which may have been deliberate or because she isn’t very good. She moves up in trip a tad. Maybe she will improve today but i put myself off. She is a big price mind. One of those painful ones.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Holiday’s Are Coming… What will be happening while I am ‘away’…

-On Wednesday I am off to Budapest for a few days, through to Monday. It is for a childhood friend’s stag do and as such isn’t really a holiday! Section 1 above will continue in the normal way- that is the plan anyway. One of you good folk, Mike, (the one who is very good at highlighting those qualifiers I have missed!) is going to email me the qualifiers to help save me some time. I will have lap top with me as usual and will add ratings pointers/odds and post them all up. I hope to get these posted the evening before but by 10am every morning at the latest. I will keep you informed if I hit problems. I am not planning on adding ‘notes’ or ‘bet of the day’ in section 2. Normal service will resume from Tuesday onwards… I am then off to Italy in June for 5 days or so, the week before Royal Ascot. I haven’t thought about that as yet but suspect it will be the same as above. Any questions etc post away.

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Flat 2017 Report: 

My 60+ day trainers report is complete and you can read that HERE>>>

Qualifiers are posted in the free daily posts. They have had a solid start, 2/6, +16 points. We shall see how they do during the rest of the season.

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Tomorrow’s post…

Should be as normal, I don’t fly until the afternoon. The ratings pointers may not be completed until the morning but I hope to get the qualifiers up before 2pm today.

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That’s the lot for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • Morning all

    My qualifiers for today.

    FLAT

    Brighton
    5.50 – Jersey Breeze (micro age) H3, G1 18% 9/2+ price taken 13/2(PP)

    JUMPS

    Huntingdon
    8.05 –The Two Amigos (micro TJC) H3, 24% 7/2+ price taken 7/1(B365)

    Good luck

    Gavin 23/05/17 8:26 AM Reply


  • Have a great time Josh – Budapest is a great city.

    Hilaryr 23/05/17 10:12 AM Reply


    • Cheers, yep it is. I think this is my third trip. There are three of us going out early, before around 25 others arrive on Saturday. So, some quiet time before it all goes a bit mad no doubt. I’ll endeavour to come back in one piece.

      Josh 23/05/17 10:16 AM Reply


  • Have a good trip Josh. Only 11 days until mine and it cannot come quick enough.

    nickmazur 23/05/17 1:41 PM Reply


    • Cheers Nick. Yep looking forward to it. Albeit if this train is anything to go by I’m learning behind some decent weather! Boiling. Where are you off to?

      Josh 23/05/17 4:27 PM Reply


      • Got 2 weeks in Vegas so going to make this feel like Siberia compared to the weather out there.

        nickmazur 23/05/17 6:03 PM Reply


  • Enjoy your break josh,kepp an eye out for Dascombe at Haydock,appleby racking up the profits at Nottingham one runner,a winner 8/1

    gearoid180468 23/05/17 3:26 PM Reply


    • Cheers Gerry. I need to have a look at Appleby, you following any particular angle? Got him covered with a micro or two but from memory he had a poor season at track last year hence why he may not have been included in ‘all hncps’, as I think he may have been in first ever flat ttp. Also the 3YO angle in an old research article from memory. Will have to do some digging when I return.

      Josh 23/05/17 4:30 PM Reply


      • Think I started following his 3yo horses around 2013 when he was a bit under the radar at Nottingham,hasn’t been so profitable to follow more recently but the odd big priced one goes in,so I back the value ones blindly a bit like Tom Dascombe

        gearoid180468 23/05/17 5:17 PM Reply


  • Oh well that was a poor day for the ‘tips’. They didn’t really brighten up the train journey. Awful. Moving on quickly from those. Maybe playing in the low grade dross isn’t advised that often. Channons ran ok,both led,no excuses. The other two were awful and both drifted which told the story in the end.

    Josh 23/05/17 6:27 PM Reply


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