Members Daily Post: 19/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Inform Speed Ratings to follow…

FLAT

Newbury

2.35 –

Ice Age (all hncps) 14 H3, I3, G1 11/1 (#1 strat qual on morn prices)

Boy In The Bar (all hncp) 10/1

 

Newmarket 

2.45 – Another Boy (all hncps) 14/1

 

York

4.05- Gibbs Hill (all hncps + micro TJC) 30 H1 I3 15/8

 

Hamilton

7.00 –

Restive(4yo+, + micro class) H3 I1 9/1

Framley Garth (4yo+, + micro age) I3 20/1

8.40 – Sir Domino (micro age) 

 

JUMPS

Aintree

6.05 – Falcarragh (micro dist) 11/1

6.40 –

Free Stone Hill (hncp hurdle) I3 15/8

Nathans Pride (micro dist) 16/1

8.20 -Call Me Vic (all hncps) 14,30 10/1

 

Bonus

6.30 DownPatrick –

Ashjan (hncp hurdle) 12/1

Mischief Maisy (hncp hurdle debut) 12/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/11,9p, +11.8) (Jumps: 8/50, +29.5) (total: 10/61, +41.3 points)

 

6.40 Aintree- Nathan’s Pride – 1 point win – 16/1 (general)

7.00 Hamilton – Framley Garth – 1 point win – 22/1 (Skybet/Lad) 20/1 (general) (now a non runner..maybe ground…if so may indicate he was here to run his race…)

 

A switch to the other approach with Bet of The Day- the ‘been there and done it horse’ who could pop up again. Both of these are just at a price that I found hard to leave. The kind of horse where if they fall in you look at them afterwards and realise you could have constructed a case. Both have a couple of questions, but that’s why you want a price. Not many of these will win over time, but enough should to leave us in front…

Nathan’s Pride… well he won this race last year, which always peaks interest. Conditions look ideal again for a repeat bid and while he is a few pounds higher this is ‘only’ his 8th handicap hurdle. Something clearly went amiss the last day but I find it interesting they have brought him back in this race. Maybe they have aimed him at it. Or he will need the run. He won this race last year at 20/1 to I am not sure the market will be much help, unless taking a walk beyond 25s say. Something may be better handicapped, the Skelton horse may relish the step up in trip and decimate them, but at 16s I had to have a nibble. IF he is a1, then he should out-run these odds. Last year’s race has produced a few winners since and this is never the strongest C2. Most in here have some sort of question to answer.

Framley Garth… another CD winner who will pop up at some point no doubt. He likes it around here and is a couple of pounds below his last run. He is an 8f horse and he ran well until around 2f out LTO, over 10f. This is his third run back and he returns to near ideal conditions. The niggle is the going. He is best with a bit of cut although he has gone very close on good. They may have the odd shower before racing to take any sting out of the ground but they may not. My head says he may look dangerous up to a point but may not put down in the final furlong or so when the button is pushed, but I am guessing a bit there and at this price I can afford to do that. Again it is another race where most have a question or two, it looks open enough. He also drops back in class from his last run and he is a C5 animal I think. His wins have been at 18/1, 16/1 x2 so again, a price shouldn’t put us off, a drift might- but my money will be down. He ticks enough boxes here and I don’t want him winning at this price without carrying anything. If he loses I am sure we will get it back with interest at some point over the summer. He can peak a bit later in the year but again, guessing a tad as to whether he is ready now. 20s to roll the dice

**

**

YORK DANTE MEETING NOTES: READ HERE>>>

‘Notes’

2.20 – Faithful Promise (12/1<, dist), Izzy Bizu (as above) / Maggies Angel (7/2< positive, doesn’t mean bigger is a negative mind)

2.55 – Dancing Breeze (Gosden) / Tomyris (varian all)

3.30 – Muntahaa  (Gosden)

4.05 – Gibbs Hill (all+dist+age)

5.05 – Savannah’s Dream (dist) / Coolfitch (dist)

5.40 – Lester Kris (Hannon- career runs/odds) / Dominating (dist, 12/1<)

 

(do look through the notes, i can miss the odd one and have, for example,not mentioned all Johnstons ones that as I write are not near 12/1<. I can miss the odd one. Do say so if you think I have! Another nice winner for OMeara,28 BFSP. That angle has done it’s job. Hope you may have had something on his Thursday winner. I had small change, always wish you’d have had more) 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

PLEASE NOTE: I am at York all day Friday and won’t be back until late. As such Saturday’s post will be complete in the morning, likely by 10am at the latest, by 11am my final cut off at weekends. As ever when you read ‘complete’ in the post title, you know it is finished.

**

Blessed To Empress... (runs in 1st at York)

The guys the run the partnership are nothing but thorough with keeping us in the loop/previewing races etc. The below link includes their thoughts on the 2.20 plus some thoughts of the trainer, if such things interest you.

READ THAT HERE>>>

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Enjoyed the write up for blessed to empress, I did have a little fun ew nibble earlier on in the week at 20’s (skybet) and today at 25’s (betfred) so I hope she can handle the ground.

    Enjoy York tomorrow Josh

    Gavin 18/05/17 7:19 PM Reply


    • Cheers Gavin, yep very exciting. Fun EW nibbles the order of the day I think- on paper/action ground should be fine but you never know, and plenty of pace on. With any luck she can hold a position over first couple of furlongs and then who knows. Fair bit of pace on paper but she will stay further in time and if handles ground should keep going. Either way we will have a bit of fun with her over the season.

      Josh 18/05/17 10:11 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    is newmarket the roley course tommorow

    russ 18/05/17 8:33 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    i have been looking for the dave-o- mera angle ..
    where was that at

    russ 18/05/17 8:44 PM Reply


    • Hi Russ, yep Rowley tomorrow I believe. O’Meara angle is in the ‘York Dante Meeting Notes: Read Here’ link above. ‘Qualifiers’ against that angle listed along with others, section 2 above, below Bet of The Day. Thursdays winner was Fashion Queen as noted in the quals for the 4.35, as listed in section 2. Josh

      Josh 18/05/17 9:58 PM Reply


      • Coolfitch ran away from them once he was through….Great stuff.

        Tony Mc….

        tonymc 19/05/17 5:20 PM Reply


  • First time I’ve looked at the cards all week and it looks like a nice day of racing. (barring York that is) At Aintree I am hoping its a case of third time lucky with Bailey Concerto in the 18:05 at Aintree having tipped him twice in the past 12 months and seeing him finish 2nd both times. Drops back to a class 3 chase handicap (3/9, 7p), likes the track (1/5, 3p over CD), gets good ground (4/12, 8p) and Brian Hughes is back on board (3/15, 9p). Trainer is arguably in her bes form for several years with 4 winners and 2 2nds from her 11 runners in May. The winner of the Carlisle race when he came 2nd has franked the form by winning again.

    I also like the look of Shared Equity in the 14:35 at Newbury. The track should suit his running style and will like the ground. The handicapper has dropped his to a mark of 97 which is only 2lbs above his last winning mark and 3lbs lower than his good 2nd this time last year. He is runs well fresh and is extremely consistent horse. Trainer has had 2 winners this week after going without one for 3 months. I expect him to go close.

    Moving on to the 15:55 at Newmarket I don’t understand why Saigon City is 7/1. The form of his last race has worked out extremely well with the winner going close in a Grade 3 (rated 14 lbs higher but racing off the same weights) , the 3rd winning a Grade 3 and is currently 2nd fav for tomorrow’s Yorkshire Cup (raced off 6lbs higher despite being rated 20lbs higher) and 4th destroyed a class 2 field and is mooted as a Melbourne Cup contender (raced off 3lbs higher despite being rated 8lbs higher). He was also arguably racing off a distance which was too short so the step back up in trip will help. He drops back into a handicap off the same mark. The front two in the market are unexposed but really haven’t done much yet in their careers and the fav didn’t seem to enjoy the soft ground during the only time he has raced on it. The trainer is flying with 3 winners from his last five runners and i thought the booking of Pat Cosgrove was eye-catching.

    Finally I want an e/w bet on Gavlar in the 18:50 at Newcastle. Won a class 2 over course and distance here in March and is only 4lbs higher. He drops down into a class 3 (1st and 3rd from 2 starts). The form of his last run has been slightly franked with the 3rd going very close in the Chester Cup. He has a solid 3/8, 5p record over 2m to 2m0.5f on the AW and at 10s looked a solid enough e/w bet.

    nickmazur 18/05/17 10:02 PM Reply


    • 7/1 into 9/4 and won that a shade cosily

      nickmazur 19/05/17 4:04 PM Reply


  • not so good yesterday down 11.1 pts but still up overall.
    York day 3.
    with the overnight rain finding picks that perform on soft might be the key but with quite a few who have never raced on soft ground i admit to a fair bit of guesswork so it’s fun bets only unless stated a main bet.
    2-20. Neola 8-1 won lto beating the field by an impressive 7L. Should be more to come and trainer has a fine record with his fillies but going is a concern, i’m also going to have a little ew on Blessed To Empress not a tip just because i backed her lto and know one of the syndicate members.
    2-55. Dancing Breeze looks a worthy fav @5-2 but Tomyris 13-2 might be the one to take this,
    3-30. Marmelo 10-1 Best suited to soft ground and race-fit so should go well main bet 2pts ew.
    4-05. i really like the chances of Gibbs Hill 7-4 and will have a 4pt win main bet, i’ll also have a 1pt ew saver on Ashkoul 10-1 as soft ground likely to be up his street.
    4-35. as it’s the Irish EBF Frank Whittle Partnership Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) i can’t not have a small fun bet with that race title so Hells Babe 4-1 will have the weight of my £2 on it’s back .
    5-05. Megan Lily 16-1 ew goes in the soft but no real confidence just a fun bet.
    5-40. like the previous race no real confidence in anything but a nibble on Lester Kris 16-1 ew just because of trainer/jockey combo.
    good luck all if your having a punt.

    martin whittle 19/05/17 12:41 AM Reply


    • just had a word for Lord Commander 12-1 in the 5-40 expected to go well, don’t know how good the info is so just a 1p tew just in case they know what they are talking about.

      martin whittle 19/05/17 8:22 AM Reply


    • not a bad day in the end even though my 2 main bets went down , 3 places on ew bets and 2 winners with my fun bets means a small profit on the day.

      martin whittle 19/05/17 5:48 PM Reply


  • that’s it i give up, just logged in to my skybet account to find the bet my dad asked me to put on for him, he normally can’t pick his nose never mind a winner, came in with a 110-1 double on Here comes when and Harmonise he will be impossible to live with now.

    martin whittle 19/05/17 7:50 AM Reply


    • LOL…My Mrs is like that Martin…She does my head in…”O that’s a nice name” and bang…in it goes….many times i’ve nearly cried….hahaha..

      tonymc 19/05/17 5:23 PM Reply


  • Morning all

    A bit late posting up this morning trying to do horses and buy tickets for Wembley all at same time.

    My qualifier for today

    Hamilton
    7.00 – Restive(4yo+, + micro class) H3 I1 24%, 4/1+ price taken 8/1

    Good luck all

    Gavin 19/05/17 10:13 AM Reply


  • I like Investigation in the 5.40Y, for the in form Balding stable.

    Also Passcode, 2.10Y.

    Looks hard today and there are the ground issues with the rain.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 19/05/17 11:58 AM Reply


  • Hi all,

    Gask runner today 9.00 pm Newcastle.

    7 day runner like Zophilly the other day.

    Nice price, horses going well. He also sends one to Newbury in the 3.05. Maybe a nice ew double

    Good luck

    jarrodholmes68 19/05/17 12:20 PM Reply


  • Well done on the York Stats Josh,25/1 winner yesterday and 17/1 (rule 4) and 6/1 today.I didn’t follow the other festival pointers but i think thats 2 out of 2 profitable ones

    gearoid180468 19/05/17 9:09 PM Reply


  • Just re-watching today’s racing and I see you managed to make it on the telly in your first time as an owner Josh. Hope it was a good day out?

    nickmazur 19/05/17 10:35 PM Reply


Post A Reply