Members Daily Post: 18/05/17 (upd3)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT 

Salisbury

none.

 

York 

4.05

White Lake (all hncps+micro TJC) 14,30 14/1 UP

Victory Bond (micro age) 14,30 10/1 3rd 8/1

 

Newmarket

none.

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Perth

3.05 – Lady Vivona (all hncps+hncp hurdle+micro distance) I3 28/1 UP

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/10,8p, +12.8) (Jumps: 8/50, +29.5) (total: 10/60, +42.3 points)

 

4.05 York – Victory Bond – 1 point win – 11/1 (skyb/BetF sports) 10/1 (bet365/betstars/PP/Boyle/BetBright) 3rd*

*decent run, no complaints there. Ran his race, gave run for money,and until last 1/2 furlong looked like may go closer. Another placed horse for the flat ‘tips’

Given my approach with Bet of the Day- generally trying to focus on the unexposed ones where there could be more to come- I have to back this one really. He is unexposed, making handicap debut and runs for a trainer in red hot form. Having just looked Haggas is 1/6 in this race and 4 year olds seem to have a decent record. He won his maiden on good to soft and they sent him to France in a soft ground group race- this would indicate they think he needs cut and on paper, given his price, there is no reason to be put off by the going. He is only having the 5th run of his life and he clearly stays further, which could be no bad thing here. He should be plugging on at the end, if ready to roll after his break. Haggas has a decent enough record with handicap debutants and at the track is 3/18,6p with such runners. So, all in all, he is a must bet I think. Barron’s 14/1 winner for Bet of the Day had that similar ‘could be anything/could be more to come’ profile, as did Balding’s, as have most of the jumps winners. Clearly it is a competitive race but he must have a chance….

The other qualifier will no doubt do me now but soft is more of a question for him I think, and that run at Sandown may suggest he now wants further. He wears blinkers and is a year older- I prefer the Haggas horse on paper. The market will no doubt guide with him but I think there are a couple more exciting ones in here, famous last words! Finally…

While on this race I will mention Sir Michael’s Thikriyaat– mainly as while looking through the Geegeez handicap report I couldn’t fail to note that Stoute is 3/7,6 places with handicap debutants at York in the last 5 years. He is 1/10,7 places in this race, and it looks like one he targets. The yard couldn’t be going any better and the Ascot run suggests soft is fine. I will have something on him given those stats.

 

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YORK DANTE MEETING NOTES: READ HERE>>>

‘Qualifiers’ 

*Note these are a guide and as with the notes above the numbers are clearly small in general, and very micro for some of the trainers. They are meant to be used in addition to any further study of said race/or as a starting point.

I know one of you- Christopher- backed OMeara’s 56 BFSP winner, hopefully he wasn’t the only one. Well done. Sadly I didn’t have a penny on. I talked myself out due to original jockey bookings and lack of any market support which I thought given his profile may be interesting- but 1st run for yard and unexposed enough. At the price, that probably should have been enough and punishment for not looking at him in much depth. I am an amateur at times. Next time! 

2.20 – Move In Time (dist)

2.55 – So Mi Dar (Gosden) / The Black Princess (Gosden)

3.30 – Benbatl (all) / Cracksman (Gosden)

4.05 – White Lake (all/age) / Can’t Change It (all)/ Gory Awaits (all)

4.35 – Ardad (Gosden) / Brian The Snail (odds) / Jumira Bridge (all) / Fashion Queen (distance)

5.05 – Taifbalady (odds)

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

tbc

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • Shit the bed all… Dropped a nice ew lucky 15 tonight only to 10p but returned a whopping £1793.16.
    Dread to think with non runner….. And glad I wasn’t watching the cash out.

    jarrodholmes68 17/05/17 10:21 PM Reply


    • Whoosh. Nice work. What were the selections?

      Josh 17/05/17 10:42 PM Reply


      • Zophilly, k’gari spirit,sergeant pink and spoils of war.

        You are going to ask me why now aren’t you?

        jarrodholmes68 18/05/17 7:11 AM Reply


        • No, that’s ok haha. I had all the racing from Perth on in the backgraound- If I had looked at Sergeant Pinks race before he won I think I would have been tempted, stood out on Geegez instant expert,ratings through floor, great course form and hadn’t run here for an age, blinkers back on- and an awful race/trainer in form. Sadly I didn’t look beforehand! That is a decent bet, well done. Don’t spend it all at once 🙂

          Josh 18/05/17 8:15 AM Reply


          • Cheers Josh,
            Zophilly who started the ball rolling
            Was returning within 7 days…. Gask seems to return them quickly if good enough.
            His other one was a none runner.
            Spot on with pink.
            Spoils of war…. Well a stab really but I do like this jockey.

            jarrodholmes68 18/05/17 9:01 AM Reply


        • hi jarro
          well done
          was just looking at the big priced winners
          1) how did you pick them ? would be nice to know
          zophiily has never won there
          sergent pink . has won at perth but that was a few years ago
          spoils of war has never won at perth at all

          russ 18/05/17 8:29 PM Reply


  • copy of tonights FB post.
    York day 2.
    after a good start yesterday with a UP , 7-1ew 2nd and a 14-1 winner i’ll reinvest my winnings.
    2-20. Soie D’leau is unexposed and can come on for it’s last run 10-1 ew looks fair value, i’m also going to have a small ew on
    Rasheeq 33-1+ ew no chance on paper but i just have a gut feeling given her yard’s record with runners like this.
    2-55. Queens Trust 5-2 and So Di Mar 1-1 should fight this out and it’s a coin toss between them, no bet.
    3-30.Ilike 2 in this Rekindling 7-1 and Syphax 18-1 and i’ll back both ew.
    4-05. Thikriyaat 7-1 ew is one of the least exposed runners here and looks sure to give a very good account. if Chelsea Lad 8-1 ew has recovered from pulling up lame lto then he could have a big say.
    not on tv
    5-35. looks a nice race and few are proven over 2 miles so i’m going for Grumeti 7-1 ew and Silva Eclipse 12-1 ew.fly in the ointment is probably Graceland but at 5-2 is to short for me.
    good luck all if your having a punt.

    martin whittle 18/05/17 12:52 AM Reply


  • with only 3 qualifiers today i thought i would try an experiment as i’ve been making some bad choices on prices recently either not taking the early price and it comes in or taking a price and it drifts so all were over 10-1 i took the prices lets see how i get on.
    Lady Vivona 25.36
    White Lake 17.72
    Victory Bond 12.00

    martin whittle 18/05/17 8:01 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    I am of to Perth today does anything stand out for you at the meeting. If you see anything stick it on this and I will pick it up at the meeting.
    I preferred last nights meeting but apart from Gold Chain I doubt I would have got much else, got Jonny G in a place.

    Look forward if there is anything.

    Cheers

    Mike

    mickeydee 18/05/17 8:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      I have had a quick look through..as ever take these with a pinch of salt but hopefully a couple go well…

      3.05 – race is there to be stolen from the front, so may pay to look pre race at how they are circling on big screen then dive to the bookies! Henry Brooke is a fine jockey on the front so he may try and make all with Pretty Miss Mahler- he will be aware of the pace albeit she was held up for her win LTO. Sayer’s horse EW may be of interest given the yard form. No obvious reason why he should improve on his last run but maybe all the yard’s horses are bouncing now- I don’t recall Sayer being in any form for months, but they are now. I wouldn’t like being with a Hammond fav at 5/4- he was held up and out-paced for a short time at Carlisle, relishing the hill. This is different. In any case he is 5/4, he may hack up, but I think you have to take him on if you are at the track.

      3.40- Doubledisdoubledat is an interesting pace angle- he ‘could’ get an easy enough lead. Just whether he stays on his feet. If he does, he should be going close in this moderate race for me.

      4.15 – oh this is a poor race… my eye got drawn to Call The Cops on quick look- he used to be very smart, not all that long ago, but looks a shadow of his former self now. But, the trainer is at least in form… 2/9,7p last 14 days, and the horse takes a big drop in trip. His best form was over 24f, so maybe he gets out-paced. Or he makes all and doesn’t see another rival! Small change for fun maybe, could still be running this time tomorrow. I wouldn’t have confidence in any in here- maybe just back all of Sayer’s today, that may do the trick! Her weapon of choice seems ok.

      4.45 – Amilliontimes ticks all the boxes, just whether he is handicapped up to the hilt now, not sure. But Hughes up, and he has an ok record after a break, she can ready them.

      5.20 – Gold Chain is worth another go I think if he turns up… he did exactly the same last June, won, ran a day later and won again. He will prefer this step back up in trip and ‘if’ he runs his race (can throw in towel) he could win again.

      That was a 5 minute flick through- I will watch with interest! GL

      And whatever you do don’t let those thoughts put you off anything you may like etc.
      Josh

      Josh 18/05/17 9:38 AM Reply


      • Josh

        many thanks will have a dabble on them at least.

        Cheers

        Mike

        mickeydee 18/05/17 10:21 AM Reply


        • Hi Mike,
          Really fancy Mr Grumpy in the first.

          Good luck.

          jarrodholmes68 18/05/17 12:31 PM Reply


  • Morning all

    I’m still on cloud 9 after last night best away match I’ve ever been too,went though just about ever emotion possible.

    No qualifiers for my test today

    I’m just going though York card, I too, Josh talked myself out of Al Qahwa doh!!! :-/

    I have backed to today not big odds 7/2 I’ve put them in a double too, I believe they are both well handicapped,

    4.25 Salisbury – Vanity Queen (My notes is back her next out if in same sex handicap)
    8.30 Newmarket – Ocean Air (Only his 3rd run stepping up to a mile today, won last time out after a 247 days think he should improve some more)

    Good luck today with what ever your betting on 🙂

    Gavin 18/05/17 9:43 AM Reply


    • Oh yes, I bet that was a roller-coaster. Assume you’ll be off to the final! GL
      Ah glad to read I wasn’t the only one that dodged him. Just about over it, nearly! Time to move on.
      GL today.

      Josh 18/05/17 9:50 AM Reply


      • Yep defo off to final 🙂 My little man is gutted, as he is off on holiday with his mum so can’t go.

        I’m sure we will talk ourselves out of a few more at some point, not too many though I hope haha 😉

        Gavin 18/05/17 10:26 AM Reply


        • I am of to the proper play off on saturday, Millwall v some northern team. Come on you Lions.

          martin colwell 18/05/17 12:14 PM Reply


          • hehe Good luck for Saturday Martin, I shall be watching it with cold beer dreaming of getting in to the prem a week later 😉

            Gavin 18/05/17 1:47 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh…like you ..a clanger. I backed all the picks[like i do]…..don’t know what happened. I was rubbing my hands…couldn’t find it when i checked back with Bet 365,,,I never done it…I swore i did…but it just wasn’t there……I blamed the mrs…who brought me a cup of tea…lol..I was gutted and sickkk. However i had Tasfleet at 20/1…but it’s not the same…I’m still gutted.
    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 18/05/17 10:48 AM Reply


  • Josh,

    re York qualifiers, dont the Simcock two in the 4.05 qualify?

    Duke of Firenze may now be revved up to win but is not much of a price I guess, 2.20 York.

    I also give Top Notch Tonto a chance in the 4.05.

    We shall see.

    martin colwell 18/05/17 12:17 PM Reply


    • Hmm yes… you know everything is good in Racing To Profit towers when I miss something- when I stop missing ‘qualifiers’, best call the medics! 🙂 One a NR now and he was noted- I have a habit of missing quals when a trainer has two in a race. Very odd.

      Josh 18/05/17 12:55 PM Reply


  • Ah, I’ve gone against you for the 4.05, gone for Here Comes When! Looks a tight contest. Good luck Josh

    Dan 18/05/17 4:01 PM Reply


    • Going against me can often pay dividends!! 🙂 Scooted home there, well done, nice price early wasnt he, 14s+ ?? Lovely. Decent run from mine, no complaints there in 3rd.

      Josh 18/05/17 4:12 PM Reply


      • Was 16/1 when the good Dr tipped him u last night. (I think he opened at 18/1-20/1 when the Ben Linfoot of SportingNews put him up). Good shout with yours. I am backing them as advised but that place stat is starting to become relevant for the flat tips. If the strike rate is anywhere close to what it is now after 25-30 bets certainly will be worth looking at them on an e/w basis.

        nickmazur 18/05/17 4:32 PM Reply


        • Yep, nice that they are running consistently and with that approach/profile, the winners will come, and at those odds should do just fine. Suspect place stats will level off but will be interesting to see over time.

          Josh 18/05/17 4:42 PM Reply


  • Done it again Josh Fashion Queen bfsp 28s fantastic stuff

    Christopher jones 18/05/17 4:39 PM Reply


    • Wallop. That stat has held up well! Well done. On ‘odd’ ground, anything can happen, esp when they race diff parts of track – am sure near side is known for being a bog when wet yet that’s where two shorties raced.

      Josh 18/05/17 4:41 PM Reply


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