Members Daily Post: 17/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

 

Yarmouth

2.10 – Rubensian (all hncps) H3 I3 13/2 NR

 

York

2.20 –

Shabeeb (all hncps) 14,30 12/1 UP

Al Neksh (micro age) 30  8/1 2nd

5.35 –

St Malo (all hncps+micro TJC) 14,30 6/1

Theydon Grey (micro age) 30 6/1 UP

 

Bath

6.25 – Saint Helena (4yo+)  I3 8/1 UP

6.55 – Wassail (4yo+) 14 33/1

7.55 –

Go Amber Go (all hncps) H3 I1 5/1

Baby Fact (3yo+) I3 13/2

 

SUMMER JUMPS

 

Worcester

3.40 – Theatre Rogue (all hncps) 30 H3 I3 4/1 UP

4.45 –

Keating (all hncps) 30  6/1

Marvellous Monty (hnpc hurdle) H3 9/1 2nd 7/1

 

Perth

8.35 –

Presented (all hncps+hurdle) 33/1

Johnny G (all hncp+hncp hurdle) 14/1

 

Bonus

Novice Handicaps…

2.30 Worc – The Way You Dance 14,30 H3 I3 6/1 UP

6.35 Perth – Fire Rock 18/1 Fell 25/1

8.05 –

Cuil Rogue – H3 I1 5/1 UP

Moscow Calling 12/1 UP 12/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Nice to reach the 10 winner milestone, but my word young Murphy nearly gave me a heart attack. Very lucky boy there, nearly miss-judged the easing down somewhat!

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/10,8p, +12.8) (Jumps: 8/49, +30.5) (total: 10/59, +43.3 points) (or +£433 to £10 bets/per point)

 

8.05 Perth – Moscow Calling – 1 point win – 11/1 (general) UP*

*no excuse. Got the easy lead, travelled well for a long way and looked interesting, before being headed before they turned for home, game over. He was unsteady in the market and ran as such

This one looks the most interesting bet on the day for me. And given what is happening over the Pond, quite apt! There are possible showers and if this goes on the soft side I am into unknown territory but at a double figure price I will take a chance. The softening of the ground would pose questions for a few, including the fav. Anyway, this one is lightly raced which is where I try and focus/have had most success so far with this ‘test’. It looks like he stays this trip and it is only his 3rd handicap hurdle run. Three things caught the eye really… his best run was on handicap debut a couple of starts ago. That run was after a break and in first time blinkers. He returns here after a break and in first time cheekpieces. Horses at this level often have a flaw or two and maybe changing headgear and being fresh are the key. So that’s two boxes ticked. The third is the drop in class, from 4 to a weak looking C5 where most have questions. Those are the reasons why he could out-run his odds here. The fav looks decent but will need to prove he stays but I did find it of some interest that Dickie is up here when Hobbs has a few at Worcester (yet to look at his other rides). And, I never want to get into a position where I don’t back a 10s+ shot because I am scared of the fav. Not good. The selection should also race prominently in a line up full of hold up types. Another tick. He will do. His stablemate may be worth a ‘saver’ as that would be annoying – he does take a massive step up in trip but is half the price. I think that may work wonders but given how many runs he has had over shorter it smacks a bit of desperation. But 24f may be what he has needed all along. I don’t think he will want any rain.

That was it for me on a tricky day. We are guessing at all other tracks as to what the ground will be- everywhere is expecting rain to some degree and we just don’t know what the going will be come race time. That is always a bit tricky. The Haggas horse looks interesting in the 2.20, but I have no idea if he will handle any cut. Maybe 8s is worth a roll of the dice but I wasn’t overly keen. We shall see. I also stared at Keating for an age in the 4.45 but talked myself out of him. He is lightly raced and this easier track and slight drop in trip may be the key. That C3 novice run at Sandown sticks in the mind and he does have some ability. But that was a poor race LTO and I am never keen on horses going from novice handicaps into ‘proper’ handicaps. I was on the fence at 13/2 and can feel the splinters. Don’t let me put you off either of those two if you like them, they will probably both bolt up now.

 

Some York notes/’qualifiers’ 

2.20 – Shabeeb UP / Oasis Fantasy 3rd 20s

2.55 – Out Do / Al Qahwa WON 25/1 (54 BFSP! nope,not a penny on,Chris did though!) (both dist)

3.30 – Suedois (dist) UP/ Tupi UP(odds range/up 2 class- Listed to G2)

4.05 – Serenda UP/ Shutter Speed WON 1/2

4.35 – Chessman (all,rest pattern) / Muscika (dist) UP / Harbour Grey UP (career runs/class move)

5.05 – Consequences 2nd (dist/odds) / It dont Come Easy (odds, 7/2<) UP/ Knockout Blow (odds/dist) UP

5.35 – Red Rannagh (all)UP/ St Malo (all/age)

 

The notes below suggest that the most likely source of big priced winners could be messrs Simcock and Hannon. They have 4 between them today I think at decent odds. It will be interesting to see how they go. Hopefully a winner or two in the list above somewhere.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

YORK DANTE MEETING NOTES: READ HERE>>>

 

2.55 York

I had a brief look at this sprint handicap…of possible interest…

10/10 Age 4-6

10/10 3rd or lower in weights (top 2 0/16,2p)

10/10 had 2-5 career wins

10/10 no jockey claims (0/31,5p had claims)

10/10 ran in C2/3 last time out (C1, 0/15,1p)

10/10 ran in a handicap LTO (0/28,3p ran in non handicap)

 

Those 6 stats leave a ‘shortlist’ of 10. Those that ran on the AW LTO (0/18,2p) have a mediocre record, as do those drawn 4 or lower (0/39,6p)

That would leave: Wentworth Falls / Lincoln / King Robert / Reputation / Shamshon / George Bowen

20/20 went off 20/1 or shorter SP. We shall see how that shortlist gets on.

Do with that as you please.

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • just watching out my window and it’s as black as the ace of spades, with tomorrows local forecast “The rain will persist through much of the day, with heavier bursts at times.” the going could easily turn to soft so keep a watch on the official going bearing in mind it will only get softer.

    martin whittle 16/05/17 9:05 PM Reply


  • Simcock has two outsiders at York, 2,20 Oasis Fantasy and 5.35 Red Rannagh that both fit Josh’s York stats. Both long prices.

    point taken re the ground.

    martin colwell 16/05/17 9:23 PM Reply


  • Its called the Knavesmire for good reason gets very soft and when it does seems to throw up many a long priced or shock winner tred with caution the watchword

    finalflight 16/05/17 11:34 PM Reply


  • my FB post.
    well it’s the start of the York Dante meeting tomorrow and with this weather brewing it’s a bit of a minefield, official going is good/soft good in places but i expect that to change to generally good to soft soft in places getting softer during the day as the ground cuts up. first 4 races are live on ITV4.
    2-20. Johnstones Beardwood with Andrea Altzeni on board has won on good/soft, dropping back to 1m2f drawn right in the middle, 28-1 ew with Skybet paying 6 places iv’e had a little nibble.
    2-55. Muntadab is just about big enough @7-1 for an ew bet and only just got beat over this distance lto, performs on good/soft.
    3-30. Tasleet is another who has won on good/soft and was beaten by a very good horse lto over 7f , dropping back to 6f should suit ,12-1 ew.
    4-05. cant see anything beating Shutter Speed but at 4-11 i’m leaving this race well alone.

    martin whittle 17/05/17 6:48 AM Reply


    • nice win on Tasleet 15.5 bf paid for the rest of day 🙂

      martin whittle 17/05/17 7:36 PM Reply


      • Top work Martin, did that rather well!!

        Josh 17/05/17 7:47 PM Reply


  • Morning all

    I’m off to 2nd round playoffs tonight hopefully the Town can beat Sheff Wednesday, been waiting my whole life for a chance to get in to the top flight, so everything crossed we can get in to final 🙂

    Well done Josh on the Bet of the day yesterday, (But like you said Josh young Murphy, blood hell I can do with that at that time of night hehe)

    My qualifiers for

    FLAT

    Bath
    7.55 – Go Amber Go (all hncps) H3 I1, 26%, 3/1 +, price taken 5/1 (WH)

    Bonus
    Novice Handicaps…
    2.30 Worc – The Way You Dance 14,30 H3 I3 16%, 5/1+, Price taken 15/2

    Good luck

    Gavin 17/05/17 9:03 AM Reply


  • pissing it down at the moment

    martin whittle 17/05/17 9:11 AM Reply


    • Am assuming you’re near York Martin…

      Josh 17/05/17 9:17 AM Reply


      • Scarborough Josh

        martin whittle 17/05/17 12:26 PM Reply


    • ‘O to be in England….etc etc’ lol

      tonymc 17/05/17 11:55 AM Reply


  • I fear if Moscow Calling starts in the 20:35 the head start may be insurmountable mate.

    nickmazur 17/05/17 9:37 AM Reply


    • haha, ah yes! That would be a bit challenging. Thanks. Good spot.

      Josh 17/05/17 10:03 AM Reply


  • Bit late now, but wasn’t there a good set of profit figures a couple of years back for USA bred horses at York for some reason….can’t remember it now. It’s age….but i know i hit a few good winners at that meeting.
    BOL all.

    tonymc 17/05/17 11:16 AM Reply


  • Heard that Consequences in the 5.05 York may be quite useful

    steved 17/05/17 11:32 AM Reply


  • Just an observation….but to me O’Meara’s horses seem to be a bit bulky. or is that the rain in my eyes.

    tonymc 17/05/17 11:56 AM Reply


  • Fantastic Josh paid 54s at bfsp won me over £500 many thanks

    Christopher jones 17/05/17 3:08 PM Reply


    • Ah that’s the kind of comment I like to read, makes doing those meeting notes worthwhile. Crikey, 54 BFSP. Bugger.
      I must admit I didn’t have a penny on- which is rather annoying. (bangs head on table!) Pleased that you did mind. Well done.

      Josh 17/05/17 3:13 PM Reply


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