Members Daily Post: 16/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT 

Beverley 

3.00- Bond Bombshell (4yo+) 13/2 UP

3.30-

Rousayan (4yo+, + micro TJC) H1 I1 G3 5/2 UP

Jacbequick (4yo+) H3 I3 G1 7/1 UP

 

Chepstow

6.40 –

Overhaugh Street (all hncps) 14 13/2  UP

Satchville Flyer (4yo+) 33/1 UP

7.40 – Wassail (all hncps) 14 25/1 UP

8.40 – Sir Pass I Am (4yo+, + micro runs) G1 10/1 (Bet365/BV)  WON 8/1>3/1 (6.8/1 15pR4, declared price)

 

JUMPS

Sedgefield

1.50 – Royxfet (hncp chase + micro class) I3 18/1 UP

3.50 – Oscar O’scar (hncp chase) H3 5/2 PU

4.20 – Bell Weir (all hncps) H1 I1  7/1 2nd 

 

Warwick

2.10 – Seeanythingyoulike (all hncps+ micro 90 days) 25/1 UP

3.40 – As You Like (all hncps + hncp hurdle+ micro class/going/age) 6/1 WON 6/1>8/1

5.10 – Ragged Wood (NHF) H1 I1  7/2 UP

 

Southwell

5.30 –

Gorran Haven (all hncps+micro distance) H3 I1 10/3 UP

Larkhall (all hncps+micro class) 18/1 UP

Lovely Bubbly (micro age/ going if SOFT) H3 6/1 UP

 

Bonus

6.00 South – Washed Ashore (novice hncp chase) 8/1 UP

 

**

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 1/9,7p, +6) (Jumps: 8/48, +31.5) (total: 9/56, +37.5 points)

 

5.30 South – Lovely Bubbly – 1 point win – 6/1 (general)UP*

*hmm that was a bit rubbish. Weak in the market,never really jumping that well. Poor.

8.40 – Chep – Sir Pass I Am – 1 point win – 9/1 (WH/BV) 8/1 (B365) WON 8/1>3/1 (6.8/1,  15pR4, declared price)

 

Lovely Bubbly – This is only his second start over fences and he is looking to build on his decent debut LTO. He is unexposed in this sphere and it looks like he has returned in much better form than he was before Christmas. It could be Vaughan has long had his sight on chasing and spent a while introducing him to racing. This is his third start after a break and he has been running well and to my eye has looked to bet getting out-paced. So, the step up in trip looks interesting- he is doing something different which I like to see with more unexposed ones. It is the reason for why he may win this and show a new level of form. He is related to a few horses who got this trip and further and is well worth a go over it. On a couple of hurdle starts before Christmas you may have stamina questions- but he didn’t look in the best of form then and in any case it is an unknown. If he fails to get home here, given his form/profile, then we can maybe say he doesn’t quite see it out. He usually races prominently which is always a positive and seems versatile as to the going- he ran well at Exeter on soft to suggest he doesn’t need good. It depends if/how much rain they have, but I won’t use that as an excuse. Any rain may inconvenience others. In what looked at open race 6/1 was just about a decent price to my eyes. Gorran Haven lines up here and I ‘tipped’ him LTO- he may well win this but is nearly half the price. The tongue tie goes back on here. I just thought he was a shade disappointing LTO and I don’t know if he will want any rain. Bowen is on which caught the eye. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was involved but I wasn’t jumping up and down to back him at 10/3 personally. Possible saver material.

Sir Pass I Am- well he is technically a #1 Strategy qualifier also having been 10s in two places as I was typing up the ‘morning prices’ – that didn’t last for long mind but he is a qualifier on that approach. In any case I am ‘tipping him up’ also- he is unexposed and from a powerful yard. I like the fact that he takes a big move up in trip here. That is the reason why he ‘could’ perform better than he has to date and out-run these odds. His mother placed over this trip on the flat and that run at Windsor in October suggested he was worth a go at it. He has also run well with cut in the ground and should be fit/spot on after his run LTO. Again this looks an open enough race, the market may well guide, but if he relishes the trip he should be involved. Of course he may just be useless and may well not stay, but we get a price to find out.

 

**

Weather watch… the rain around makes today a bit tricky. According to BHA site…

Beverley- good to firm, rain expected throughout day.

Chep- had plenty, already good to soft, more rain expected

Warwick- good- showers expected

Southwell- good- rain expected

Sedgefield- Good, no rain expected.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

York Dante Meeting: I will post up some trainer notes later today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • My qualifiers for today.

    FLAT

    Beverley

    3.35 – Rousayan (4yo+, + micro TJC) H1 I1 G3, 54%, evens+ price take 5/2(SJ)

    JUMPS

    Sedgefield

    1.50 – Royxfet (hncp chase + micro class) I3, 20%,4/1+ price taken 18/1(WH)

    4.20 – Bell Weir (all hncps) H1 I1, 18% 9/2+ price taken 7/1(BV)

    Warwick

    5.10 – Ragged Wood (NHF) H1 I1, 70%, evens+ price taken 7/2 (B365)

    Good Luck

    Gavin 16/05/17 9:21 AM Reply


    • Good luck Gavin- looks a tricky day ahead, esp with the going.

      Josh 16/05/17 10:00 AM Reply


  • Sir pass i am saves the bacon, got 9.56(4pt win)early doors for a break even day.

    martin whittle 16/05/17 8:57 PM Reply


Post A Reply