Members Daily Post: 15/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

Brighton 

3.15 – One Big Surprise (4yo+) H1 G1 7/4 UP

4.20 –

Live Dangerously (4yo+, + micro runs) 8/1 UP

Light of Air (micro distance) H3 I1 G3  3/1 WON 5/2

5.25 – The Big Lad (4yo+) H1, I3  9/4 2nd 

 

Windsor

6.50 –

Goring (3yo+) H3 I3 G1 12/1 UP 8/1

Dont Blame me (micro runs) 8/1 UP 12/1

 

Wetherby 

None. There is no stats profile for Wetherby.

 

JUMPS

Kempton

None.

 

Towcester

5.30 – Burrenbridge Hotel (hncp hurdle) 14,30 5/1 UP

6.00 –

Upbeat Cobbler (all hncps) 14 H3 11/2 UP

Better Days (micro runs) H3, I1  2/1 2nd 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

No Bet of The Day today. Goring as a #1 strat qual and we’ll see how he goes.

When flicking through I did note for UPBEAT COBBLER… in handicap chases she is 0/8,0p returning withing in 60 days. With breaks of 61+ days she is 4/6,5p, +21.5 SP. Something to note for the future maybe. I think her mark needs to come down a tad but knowing my luck she will win today and dismiss that rest pattern idea.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing much to add today.

Tabley Point to Point was great fun, and if you’ve never been to a PtP I would recommend it. Superb day out.

Blessed to Empress…

Well we are shooting for the stars second time up and she is entered for the Marygate Fillies Stakes (Listed) at York on Friday. The intention is to run and I will be making the trip over. Very exciting.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Good morning all

    Tough week again wins 2/17, saw lots of 2nd places 6/17, ended the week -6.25 points still showing profit of +5.14 overall, so I’m happy with how it is going so far.

    My qualifiers

    FLAT

    Brighton
    5.25 – The Big Lad (4yo+) H1, I3, 53%, evens+ price taken 9/4 (Ladbrokes)

    Windsor
    6.50 – Dont Blame me (micro runs) 23%, 7/2+ price taken 9/1 (BetfairSB)

    JUMPS

    Towcester
    6.00 – Better Days (micro runs) H3, I1, 33% 2/1+ price taken 9/4 (BetfairSB)

    Good luck all

    Gavin 15/05/17 9:40 AM Reply


  • Goring now 8/1

    Mike

    mickeydee 15/05/17 9:51 AM Reply


  • Blessed to Empress is 20/1 Skybet.

    Mike

    mickeydee 15/05/17 10:11 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh,
    glad you enjoyed the day at the Points. A lot less intense and far more comradely than rules meetings in general. Footy results will have further brightened your day no doubt.

    What I was trying to allude to in my less than sober state on Saturday evening about runs in season once again occurs.
    Looking at the cards in the RP /SL etc, you would assume that Don’t Blame Me is a qualifier. But further checks show his last run was Mar 31 so has had no runs ‘this season’
    Furthermore Shifting Star in the B 3.50 shows form of 4 runs but has only had 2 this season so should be a qualifier.

    Or am I taking a too simplistic view?

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 15/05/17 10:36 AM Reply


    • Morning Mike,

      Yep I have just spent a few minutes working out what the right approach is with seasons runs, given all stats based on the horse race base interpretation.

      Their ‘runs this season’ for the Flat is from the official start of the flat season which this year was the 1st April (day of the Lincoln handicap)

      I have no idea when the Racing Post determine the start/end of the flat season but it isn’t that date – looking at the hyphen (-) for flat then it is clear the 1st April was not the cut off. I don’t know if they just go by calendar year or what.

      The confusing aspect is that for the jumps, the end/start of the season is correctly marked down in the RP! the hyphen is in the right place, marking the start of the new season on 30th April (day after Sandown’s Gold Cup which marks the end)

      Having run a system test through HRB the ‘runs this season’ appears to use the official start of the flat season.

      So, yep, on your Flat examples you are correct. Jumps has been fine.

      I won’t change today’s as they are what they are now. And from tomorrow will have to treat all Flat ‘runs this season’ as from 1st April.

      Cheers Josh

      Josh 15/05/17 11:06 AM Reply


      • Thanks for clearing that up Josh. I’ve generally concerned myself with NH in the past so have only just noticed the anomaly. At least I now know not to rely on the cards only for past form on the high st.

        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 15/05/17 11:46 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike….I use a simple 3o days to split the season…That way at least it sets a rule..wrong or right.

      A great performance by my beloved Reds…I hope we can keep Coutinho…..remember Suarez and Torres etc…mascerano all spring to mind….But what a player that kid is.

      tonymc 15/05/17 11:58 AM Reply


      • Hi Tony
        cheers for the input.

        Coutinho…….reminds me more of one P.Beardsley. Opposition never had a clue what he was going to do. I’m not sure he did til the last second some of the time.

        titus_a_duxass 15/05/17 12:28 PM Reply


        • Quazi…what a great player too….
          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 15/05/17 4:23 PM Reply


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