Free Daily Post: 16/05/17 (complete)

TIPS

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

4.10 War – Cernunnos UP

6.00 South – Minella Aris WON 3/1>9/4

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.40 War – Im Still Waiting (12/1< guide) UP

 

Flat 2017: +60 Days (test)

6.50 Killarney – Silk Cravat (any odds) *

*I have added a couple more trainers to the +60 list and will update the report asap.

 

**

Pace Wins The Race (test: 0/6,0p = -6)

NONE…

7.10 Chep – Spirit of Rosanna –  I have looked at this one and I think she will go very close from the front here- but I have missed the price. Knowing she was 8s/10s makes taking 4s a bit foolish I think. Were she 6s+ she may have been worth a go still. She should lead here, and will relish this return to softer ground. She won’t have liked good to firm the last day and in any case may come on for the run. There could be more to come this year and she finished last year in progressive form. But, 4s is getting on the skinny side now. 10s last night would have looked decent now. Never mind. One to just watch and see if the ‘pace eyes’ are getting any better. Being more patient and waiting for them to jump of the page is probably the way to go.

The 3.00 Beverley looked interesting also- I thought Henley WON 13/2>11/4,made all… may be able to bag the rail as he can lead/races prominently. He has also run in a couple of races that have worked out well, esp the Southwell contest, and he is top rated on the speed figures here. He won’t mind any rain either. Neither will Jack Luey – and he can front run, and he also ran in the same Ponte race as Henley LTO. These two may well dominate from start to finish but I couldn’t decide so have left it. Another one for me to watch with interest but hopefully they both run well, they shouldn’t be far away.

**

Nothing more to add today.

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  • Willy Watch

    Unless you backed Solar Halo on Saturday we are running at a slight loss so far.Sweetest Taboo is probably not very good,but Ostatnia ran above her odds and is probably one for another day.

    Willy has 4 entries tomorrow but am going for the better value horses,Willy has fairly good record with 3yo at Killarney
    Buttermere 6.50 Killarney 1pt win at 8/1 BV,Ladbrokes,Coral
    Hushing 7.20 Killarney 1/2pt e/w at 12/1 BV

    Hushing is the most interesting of the 2 in his handicap debut,a Godolphin horse,hopefully one of the duo may return a profit

    gearoid180468 15/05/17 7:24 PM Reply


  • Karl Burkes Record in 3yo races is 4-7 for +13.50 profit,he has 3 entries
    4.30 Copper Baked
    5.00 Undiscovered Angel+Super Ruby

    Copper Baked is probably the best of the trio with Joey Haynes booked to ride +46 riding for Burke

    Undiscovered Angel is not really backable at 4/1 and Super Ruby is probably 2nd choice at 16/1 but you never know with his stable,especially if market speaks

    Karl Burkes 5 yr stats for maidens

    2yo 17% +73,this figure excludes the 66/1 winner at Ripon recently
    3yo 17% +33
    Think he is worth keeping an eye on in these types of races,especially at northern tracks

    gearoid180468 15/05/17 7:46 PM Reply


    • Good stuff as always Gearoid.
      Undiscovered Angel now a NR/..& betfair offering 9s on Buttermere.
      Tony Mc.

      BOL.

      tonymc 16/05/17 11:39 AM Reply


  • 16th May Beverley 5f Novice
    4.25 Porchy Party, The Right Choice
    3.75 Go Now Go Now, Laith Alareen,
    3.5
    3.25 Rainbeau Prince
    3 Spoof
    2.75 Magic Jazz
    2.5 Lord Riddiford
    2.25 Skyva
    2
    1.75 Haafdasee
    1.5 Archie Perkins
    1 Dark Hedges
    Preview – I’m sure that I grossly over-rated the Newbury maiden that Spoof ran in. The fact that he now turns up at Beverley with a hood under a 3lb claimer would tend to back that up. 2to where he ran too free, he was beaten by Declaration Of Love who I probably under-rated a fraction at 71. Best case here is that he is around 74. He may be able to win this from that and is drawn well but my preference is for Porchy Party.

    Prior race notes
    Spoof – Similar size to Headway, a bit smaller than the 3rd and 4th but bigger than Gold Town. Bit lighter. Spencer indulging in his usual giraffe strangling to force Spoof to drop in and then rushing him up only for the effort to peter out in the last furlong. How much energy was wasted wrestling him back, he was never given a chance to settle at the pace of the leading group from which the 1,3, and 4th horses came. 85
    Hugh

    alpha2 15/05/17 10:30 PM Reply


    • I think even 74 over-rates Spoof. Looks a dodgepot to me. Porchy party ran ok but Lord Riddeford from a high draw must simply be a better model.
      Doubt hat he is more than a 74/5 though.
      Hugh

      alpha2 16/05/17 2:18 PM Reply


  • Date & Title: 16th May Chepstow 5f Novice Auction
    4.25
    3.75 Connery, Major Peirson, May Remain
    3.5
    3.25
    3 Data Protection
    2.75 Debutante’s Ball, Super Florence
    2.5 Holdenhurst
    2.25 Billiebrookedit
    Preview – I liked My Remain at Windsor where he received a poor ride so with Oisin Murphy up here looks as though he should be able to take this. Super Florence looks the main danger. I am a bit concerned that my early ratings were too high.
    Prior race notes
    May Remain – Not great pictures. Med size, still carrying some fat but a better type than he could show here. Missed break then given an all action bumping up and down flailing about ride by Luke Morris. At least he didn’t start walloping the colt from way too high a la all weather. All this action led to the poor debutant running up the back of Angel Of the South on a couple of occasions as they were both held in on the rail. A disappointing ride that will not have given this baby the good experience a debut run should be. It is worth watching the race to see the contrast between Pat Cosgrave (Declarationoflove) or Ryan Moore (Lethal Lunch) and Luke Morris to see how a 2yo debutant should be handled. Improve from here 75
    Hugh

    alpha2 15/05/17 10:35 PM Reply


    • Well I’ll be…., one of those occasional events, a Stan Moore debut winner. Maybe it was the rain, but no excuse for May Remain really. Another over-rated early season one.
      Hugh

      alpha2 16/05/17 6:12 PM Reply


  • 15:00 Beverley, Ticks the Boxes has another go at 5f @Beverley after getting going far to late lto, the uphill finish should suit as he has only ever won at 6f and might be worth another chance in what is a pretty poor field. 11-1 SB.

    martin whittle 16/05/17 5:11 AM Reply


    • Draw has not been kind

      mozzer 16/05/17 11:53 AM Reply


    • This was from drawbias.com
      Along with the 5 furlongs at Chester, the 5 furlongs at Beverley is probably the biggest and best known draw bias in the country. Quite simply low drawn runners at Beverley over 5 furlongs have a massive advantage.

      The only problem with this is that everybody knows it, and therefore this fact will already be built into the price of a specific horse and so its very hard for knowledge of this particular draw bias to make you any money. The bias is not just due to being drawn on the inside of a tight turn, but also the nature of the 5 furlong course at Beverley means that due to the undulations of the course, the wider drawn runners are actually starting lower down the hill than the inside runners. Which is obviously a disadvantage.

      mozzer 16/05/17 12:04 PM Reply


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