Members Daily Post: 13/05/17 (comp+bet of day)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

Lingfield

4.15 – Dream of Summer (4yo+) 4/1 UP

 

Haydock

none.

 

Nottingham

2.40 – Casterbridge (micro TJC) 6/1 UP

3.15 – Brigadoon (micro class) H3 7/1 3rd 10/1

4.25 –

Tomahawk Kid (4yo+) G3 7/1 2nd 5/1

Lord Franklin (micro TJC) 20/1 UP

 

Ascot

2.15 – William Hunter (micro class) 9/1 UP

4.00 –

GM Hopkins (all hncps + micro going) 25/1 UP

Remarkable (all hncps + micro going/age) 11/1 UP

Charles Molson (all hncps) 22/1 UP

 

Thirsk

6.15 – Rydale Rio (micro dist) 14/1

6.45-

Throckley (all hncps) G1 14/1 2nd 9/1

Transpenninestar (micro TJC) 11/1 UP

Another Go (micro age) G3 18/1

Skindaar (micro runs) G3 25/1 UP

Parole (micro 90 days) 16/1

Top of the Glas (micro run) H3 I3 11/2 UP

7.45 –

Rose Eclair (micro distance) 10/1

My Cherry Blossom (micro distance) G3 12/1

 

JUMPS

Hexham

2.55 – Civil Unrest (all hncps) H1,I1 10/3 2nd 4/1

3.30 – Jac The Legend (all hncps+ hncp hurdle) 5/1 UP

4.05 – Beyondtemptation (hncp hurdle) H1, I3 6/1 WON 3/1

5.15 – Fencote Belle (NHF) 7/2 UP

 

Haydock

2.00 –

Guitar Pete (all hncps) 10/1 UP

Prime Venture (hncp hurdle) H3 5/1 2nd 

3.10 –

Court Minstrel (hncp hurdle) 12/1 4th 20/1

John Constable (hncp hurdle) 8/1 WON 8/1>5/1

5.55 –

Purple N Gold (all hncps + hncp chase) I3 7/1 UP

Never Up (micro runs this season) H3, I3 13/2 2nd 

 

Warwick

6.30 – Sebastian Beach (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro class/going/age) H3, I3  5/1 UP

7.30 – Robin of Locksley (all hncps)

8.00 –

Mister Dick (all hncps+ micro going/age/distance) 6/1

Day of The Roses (all hncps) 14/1

8.30 –

Pyrios (NHF) 8/1

Supakalanistic (NHF) H1,I1 7/2

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

 

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 1/8,6p, +7) (Jumps: 8/48, +31.5) (total: 9/56, +38.5 points)

4.25 Notts – Tomahawk Kid – 1 point win – 7/1 (betfred/PP) 13/2 (general) 2nd 5/1*

*hmm. Maybe best horse won but bit of a strange ride maybe – horse seemed lit up and in fairness to SDS he seemed to settle a tad better when he was taken to the front, but he kicked a long way from home. Maybe it made no difference, but tired late on. One of those. Nearly. 

This one looks interesting to my sometimes questionable flat eyes – he ticks a few boxes… he has course form, he is unexposed at this trip, he can race on the pace (not many/any real front runners in here,SDS may try and dictate,in any case will be in right spot) and he handles some cut. Having watched a few races from here yesterday it certainly wasn’t good to firm, the rain had got in to my eye. That is good for us and maybe a neg for the fav- an unknown anyway. TK handles cut it seems. He also ran well on his seasonal reappearance leading inside the final furlong before fading. He may have needed the run and also 10f may well be his trip. Finally, trainer and jockey are 3/11,9 8 places when teaming up in Class 4 handicaps and that would suggest we should get a run for our money.

There are a few qualifiers above on the #1 strategy… Geegeez or Geegeez + HRB… still caution as this app is based on the ‘jumps’ with the expectation that over time it will work just as well on the Flat. Those with ‘just’ a HRB rating should be treated with  caution, again based on the jumps stats but they may work better on the flat, we shall see. And the ‘I’ ratings are in test mode. I will pull my finger out and get some initial results together by close of play Thursday next week.

**

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Swinton Hurdle Pointers: CLICK HERE>>>

** POST ABOVE NOW WITH SHORTLIST/’TIPS’***

3.10 – Zubayr / London Prize… info above.*

Both poor, unplaced, stats/profile didn’t hold up this time. Just stick with Evan in that race it seems! Now 3/12,7p last 10 years. 

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MEMBERSHIP RENEWAL… 

For those of you on the Christmas offer/£7.50 per month

Your last payment has been made and your access will be restricted one month after that date. For many of you that will start happening in the next few weeks. You will be logged in, go to read a Members Post, and won’t be able to.

At that point you just need to use the ‘renew subscription link’ which you can find in the top right hand corner when logged in. I think you will be automatically redirected when you go to read a Members post. You will still be able to log in as you do now, just your access to members content will be denied. At that point you need to renew.

I have kept the Free Trial links up so that you get an extra 3 weeks free. After those 21 days your payment will come out.

At the moment I am not accepting new members until the flat settles down and I am more confident with advising strategies etc.

You may just be interested in the winter jumps offering. If that is the case do ensure you join before the end of September at which point the prices will be going up. (probably £147  just for Oct-April. £127/£12.50 pcm gets you full access all year at the moment) The current prices will be in place until the end of September and if you sign up to one of those they will never raise- the price is locked in.

Hopefully many of you decide to stay over the Summer months 🙂

(I will email out next week also)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    As you say a lot to go through. Fortunately I only have my own bets to sort so have a lot less to deal with than your good self.

    T 6.45 Top of the Glas (runs)
    Parole (90+ LTO)

    W 8.00 Day of Roses (all Hc’s)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 12/05/17 7:22 PM Reply


    • Bugger. Tried so hard there not to miss any but I suppose it was inevitable! Top of The Glas I thought had 3 runs within Geegeez Card, but first of those was over jumps so he does count. I have just missed the other two. Again. Clearly going to have to try harder as that really isn’t good enough. Thanks again.

      Josh 12/05/17 7:34 PM Reply


      • I miss the odd one also, like Never Up today. Makes you scratch your head sometimes when they are there to be seen but appear invisible at the time.
        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 12/05/17 8:03 PM Reply


  • The Balding handicap angle went well at Chester, a 14/1 winner today. Gosden & Dettori had two as well. One O’Brien winner and one loser. Good job on the stats over the three days I would say.

    martin colwell 12/05/17 9:36 PM Reply


    • Yep they did their job I think, highlighted a few decent winners. Next year I will just back all of Balding’s cappers blind I think! Can’t say I had a penny on either of those two winners, 22/1, 14/1 . Damn. Hopefully you did. Given they were 5/9,7p, that was a tad idiotic, not to have an interest EW nibble on them. Next year.

      Josh 12/05/17 9:40 PM Reply


  • I did back them blindly. For cash in Corals and so emptied them out a bit.

    I was looking at TTP stats re Thirsk. Is JJ Davies the same as John Davies? He has Throckley in the 6.45 .

    martin colwell 12/05/17 10:24 PM Reply


    • Always nice to take some of Corals. Yep it is John Davies,that horse is listed above as a qualifier. HorseRaceBase has him down as JJ. Thankfully not too many confusing ones like that.

      Josh 12/05/17 10:59 PM Reply


  • ITV live racing.
    after a very good Chester festival i’ll push my luck and have another go today.
    Ascot
    2-15. Mohatem 5-1 catches the eye
    2-50. Wild Hacked 5-1, Finished runner-up behind a well-handicapped rival at Kempton two starts back and gained compensation at Newcastle last time. Should take this step up in class in his stride and he’s more consistent than some in here.
    3-25. Tisbutadream 8-1, must admit i’m taking a leap of faith with this one but lost her chance from the stalls in a Listed contest at Lingfield in March and could bounce back in this.
    4-00. The Warrior 14-1 was unlucky in running lto and looks a solid ew bet, Taurean star 10-1 ew is another solid performer and i’m backing both.
    Haydock
    3-10. tricky race and Fergall 20-1 is an intriguing contender , lightly raced and had a pipe opener on the aw could be worth a punt. both John Constable 7-1 and Court Minstrel 11-1 trainers have good records in this and are worth considering.
    Lingfield
    1-55. don’t really fancy any of the top 3 in the betting and will have a quid on Hertford Dancer 16-1 and Flight of Fancy 20-1 for a bit of fun.
    2-30. bit more solid ground here and the Gosden/Dettori partnership could score with Tartini 4-1.
    3-40. the favourite Qemah should take this but at 8-13 i’ll have a small ew punt on Eartha Kitt 33-1.
    good luck to you all if your having a punt.

    martin whittle 13/05/17 8:07 AM Reply


  • Morning all

    my qualifiers

    FLAT

    Lingfield

    4.15 – Dream of Summer (4yo+), 26%, 3/1+ price taken 9/2 (bet365)

    Nottingham

    3.15 – Brigadoon (micro class) H3,17%, 5/1+ price taken 15/2 (coral)

    4.25 – Tomahawk Kid (4yo+) G3, 15%, 11/2+ price taken 7/1(betfred)
    Jumps

    Hexham

    2.55 – Civil Unrest (all hncps) H1,I1, 52% evens+ price taken 5/2(skybet)

    4.05 – Beyondtemptation (hncp hurdle) H1, I3, 16%, 5/1+ price taken 13/2 (betbright)

    Warwick

    8.30 – Supakalanistic (NHF) H1,I1,40%,6/4+ price taken 7/2(skybet)

    Good luck for today all

    Gavin 13/05/17 10:14 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, just uploaded your 60+ days micro systems into HRB. 1st qualifier Best Solution has just bolted up at an early price of 10/1. Great start.Many Thanks

    Steve Addis 13/05/17 2:46 PM Reply


    • Cheers Steve, yep that was fun to watch, a good start for those two angles… the stats/logic etc did look exciting and hopefully that is a sign of things to come. With any luck they may add 40-60 points to the pot over the season, maybe more. Quals are posted on the free daily posts also, albeit given my record of missing the odd thing prob a good job you’ve saved it yourself! Josh

      Josh 13/05/17 2:51 PM Reply


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