Free Daily Post: 13/05/17 (complete)

 

4.00 Ascot – Victoria Cup

Test Tips

(running total: 0/4,0p, -8)

George William – 1 point win – 12/1 / 11/1 (gen) 2nd 8/1

Taureen Star – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP

*Not sure if GW was unlucky there- that is the nature of these races- jockey had to snatch him up a tad just as winner got a gap,may have been closer but for that, who knows. They didn’t go much of a pace here which was my hunch, Taureen had no chance. Another day for him. 

 

Shortlist

I looked at those that had… yet to run over 10f+ in career (a neg for fav), had won over 7f+, Not top2/bottom in weights,0-2 class wins,not run G1 level before,no headgear,5-7lb claimers a neg/ran in race with 8+ runners LTO

That leaves: Outback Traveller/Donncha/Steel Train/Withensea/George William/Stamp Hill/Taureen Star/Shady McCoy

A top 5 finish last time out (LTO) is a big positive, and only the two selections tick that box, from that shortlist.

 

George William- he is unexposed and comes here on the back of a decent run LTO over 8f. This 7f takes some getting and that extra stamina is no bad thing. He is also draw high which means we have one from each side. I think there is more pace high but these things are always tricky in races like this and you never know what the jockeys may do. There is a chance there is a near-side bias at the moment also, but tbc. I can’t see why he shouldn’t run his race here and he ticks plenty of boxes for a big run. Hopefully there is a pace for him to aim at and he isn’t doing all his best work too late. That may well happen but hopefully the jockey gets after him soon enough.

Taureen Star – ticks all the boxes. He is in form, so is his trainer, and his jockey who we know excels in these type of races. Sometimes he times the challenge a fraction too late but his mounts usually finish strongly – because his aim is to settle them/preserve energy- and he wins/places in many more big field handicap races than he would otherwise do, imo anyway. If you back his mounts you can’t moan about the rides as you know what you’re getting with him. Anyway, the horse is unexposed enough and could step forward from that last run. He is drawn low- which may well be a negative but again I am guessing a bit. There is the odd pace setter down there and this horse can race more prominently I think, if he wants. He wasn’t held up right out the back from memory LTO, or in any case was in the right spot a couple furlongs from home. I am not sure the Yamrouth-Ascot route is a tried and tested one mind!

So, in what is a typically competitive race I will attempt to get on the board with one of these two. I have ditched the EW approach as lumping 4 points on two horses in these races may not be the best way forwards. I will go the foolish route today.

**

 

**

stats/trends/pointers

10/261, 40p

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 9/10 top 5 LTO
    • 6th or worse: 1/114, 12p

Horse Age

  • 8/10 aged 4 or 5
    • 6/7: 2/75,9p
    • 8+ : 0/22,3p

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • Had run over 10f+ in career: 0/53. 4p

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Ove

  • Yet to win over 7f min: 0/34,2p

Odds

  • 33/1+ : 0/92, 7p

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Headgear

  • Headgear worn: 0/47, 5p

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top 2: 0/22, 3p
  • Bottom: 0/16,1p

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career).

  • 3: 7/57,16p, +52 SP

H-Win (Class)

  • 3+ : 0/28, 3p

 

Miscellaneous 2

Distance Move

  • Up 1f+ : 1/50,4p

Highest Class Run

  • Run at G1 level: 0/30,3p

H-Places (Hncp/Non)

  • 0-1: 0/28,1p

Jockey Claims

  • 3lb: 1/31,3p
  • 5lb: 0/31,3p
  • 7lb: 0/15,2p

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Hcap/Non

  • Non handicap: 1/42,1p

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • Class 4/5: 0/17,0p

(LR) No. of Runners

  • 7 or fewer: 0/28, 1p

(LR) Track

  • Newm (Rowley): 3/32, 8p
  • Newb: 2/24,6p
  • Kemp: 2/29,5p
  • 1 win: South/Dundalk/Leic
  • Donc: 0/24,4p
  • Hayd: 0/18,4p
  • Thirsk: 0/19,0p
  • Lingfield: 0/26,3p
  • Ascot: 0/18,3p
  • Ponte: 0/9,0p

 

Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics

1st Run Distance

  • 5f: 0/28,5p
  • 8f+ : 0/23,3p

1st Run Placing

  • Won: 0/48,2p

***

Trainer Yard Location

  • Yorkshire: 0/59,7p

Trainers (of interest)

  • No multiple winners in the period.
  • 1 win: Marnane/C Appleby/J Goldie/G Margarson/D Elsworth/A Jarvis/B Ellison/D Coakley/B Hills/B Meehan
  • K Ryan: 0/11,0p
  • R Fahey: 0/13,2p

**

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.00 Hayd – Luccombe Down (12/1< guide) DNQ 4th

2.00 Hayd – Prime Venture (12/1<) 2nd

3.10 Hayd- Court Minstrel (12/1<) DNQ 4th 20/1

 

Flat 2017 (live test)

2.30 Ling – Best Solution (14/1<) WON 11/1>7/1

(this new report is HERE>>>)

**

That is all for today. Good luck with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • Some early thoughts for Saturday.

    Doesn’t Peace and Co, 3.10 HP, outclass these?

    Fastnet Tempest, 4.00 As, seems progressive and is worthily placed at the top of the market.

    I hear that Mohatem, 2.15 A, is well fancied by connections.

    So Beloved, 3.45 HP, looks solid each way value to me.

    One at a price, Oh Land Abloom, 2.00 A, 20/1, has some reasonable form.

    Due to working I do not post that much these days. I intend to go back to the pro punting later in the summer so you will hear more from me then.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 12/05/17 9:52 PM Reply


    • I’ll kick myself if Oh Land Abloom wins tomorrow having tipped it LTO and only getting beaten by a Pegasus but all his form is right handed. GL though.

      nickmazur 12/05/17 11:01 PM Reply


  • For the Victoria Cup Taureen Star looks extremely solid not to mention he has 2 big field wins at the track including at this meeting last year and has arguably the best big field jockey in Spencer (11/50, 18p +45 in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years) who was onboard for both those wins and the trainer is red hot as well. I have had a saver on The Warrior who is extremely well handicapped (12lbs lower than his 8th in this last year with the jockey claim) and fits most of the trends. I have been following the horse since his win at Goodwood from the car park and I am convinced he will win a big handicap this year. Away from the trends I think 50/1 does a disservice to the chances of Shady McCoy who is 4/9, 7p in 7f handicaps and needs the fast pace these big field handicaps provide.

    Sticking to the flat I want to be on Young Tiger in the finale at Thirsk. Ran very well LTO from the wrong side on re-appearance. Should come on for the run and is now drawn where most of the pace is. At Haydock London Prize seems to fit the trends and the race LTO wasn’t run to suit.

    nickmazur 12/05/17 10:43 PM Reply


    • I agree re The Warrior being well handicapped, although there are a few improving horses in the race.

      martin colwell 12/05/17 10:53 PM Reply


      • Professor returns to ideal conditions, off a 29lb lower rating, drawn 21, and the stand side seems to be where the pace is.

        chrisrees 13/05/17 6:21 AM Reply


        • NR

          chrisrees 13/05/17 11:56 AM Reply


    • Shady keeps up his consistent record over 7f at 50/1 to save the day a little.

      nickmazur 13/05/17 4:11 PM Reply


  • A trends based firm who Josh recommended go with FASTNET TEMPEST as their selection in the Victoria with DESERT ENCOUNTER in the Buckhounds .
    However i think Taurean is great ew value in the Victoria and UAE looks a solid fav in Buckhounds .

    je 12/05/17 11:59 PM Reply


    • sean levey gave a great ride on DE waiting for gap

      je 13/05/17 2:57 PM Reply


    • Not bad going 2/2

      Je 13/05/17 5:06 PM Reply


      • Yep, decent day that! Which particular service/person was this one?

        Josh 13/05/17 5:09 PM Reply


        • it is festival trends , you sent out an email about 4-6 weeks ago and i joined for year £65 but lesser options too

          je 13/05/17 5:46 PM Reply


  • I shall look forward to reviewing the fillies maiden from Ascot yesterday. I ended up backing three (breaking my rule that if you can’t narrow it down to two you don’t know). In descending order of stake these were Ziarah, Ertiyad and Mrs Gallagher which gave me a warm glow but a loss on the race. I will explain how this came about in the photo review.

    Today’s will have to be a no bet without being there to see Aqabah who will have to be close to group class to beat the other three highly rated ones on debut.

    Date & Title: 13th May Ascot 5f Novice
    4.25 Cardsharp, Haddaf
    3.75 Aqabah, Jellmood
    3.5 Carouse
    3.25 Zabaletaswansong
    Preview – Both the top two have had a run, Cardsharp won was a weak race at Brighton where it is rare to see a better one risked. That said he looked a fair-sized unit and won un-pressed. Haddaf did not look anywhere near ready on debut but finished in front of Dragon’s Tail and close to the small but precocious Palmer winner of a Leicester novice, Never Back Down.
    Jellmood was third behind Dahik who was beaten by Dragon’s Tail yesterday in what I at the time thought was a decent race. I will want to see Jellmood mix it with Haddaf to justify that opinion.
    The question is, did I under rate Haddaf who now, after Dragon’s Tail’s win looks under rated, or over-rate Jellmood after Dahik’s underwhelming performance at Chester?
    Looks an interesting race despite the small field. Aqabah will have to be very smart to beat Haddaf and Aqabah on debut, however given the way Charlie Appleby’s debuts have been going this may well be the case.

    Prior race notes
    Haddaf – My paddock comments were, fat, not ready, heavy horse, not fit, so to see him up there throwing it down to the winner was a surprise. Medium size but very heavily built. Depth right through but simply looked 2 races away from competitive. Clearly an ok type with a good attitude. Tempted to give him 75 which is probably a bit light given his room for improvement.
    Jellmood – Another smaller but bulky one. Strongly made in no more than a top end of small frame but a sprint build. Not sure which of the two, him or Dahik will end rating higher. 80

    alpha2 13/05/17 8:16 AM Reply


    • Any thoughts on Muntazah today hugh?

      keith sharrock 13/05/17 9:03 AM Reply


      • Hello Keith, thanks for pointing this out, I’m on parent duty today with my 91yo Mother and so had resolved not to bother looking at anything other than the 2yo race.

        Well he is my cliff horse but down in grade today from a Gp 3 lto, I can’t resist. He was not fully tuned that day and certainly not given a hard time. If he is ever to fulfil the potential I thought he had, today must be the day.

        Hugh

        alpha2 13/05/17 12:13 PM Reply


  • 3.50 Nottingham, some notes from last year about the 3yos in this listed fillies.

    Tropical Rock – proper big girl, strongly made and looked fit enough to give her best. Missed the break (note to watch and see if this is a feature of Fran Berry with 2yos) closed up well and still running on at the death. Only appeared to be shown the stick. Should be a contender up to group level. 90
    Pichola Dance – Neat and ready small one. Notably good walker with a long stride for her size. 76
    Pichola Dance – Very likeable at Kempton lto and simply looked in better condition than anything else in this race and fairly rated. 79
    Glitter Girl – Lightly made and weak at the shoulder. Needs to grow up 75
    Tallulah Rose – Despite my antipathy for the trainer’s methods the size and calmness of this one together with a decent physique won me over. Tall filly, top end of medium height but a bit lighter bodied than say

    High draw looks ok according to RP, not enough to go on from Geegeez so I am hopeful for Tropical Rock.

    alpha2 13/05/17 1:08 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Re Victoria Cup
    My system says to go with both Fastnet Tempest and Squats both from W Haggas.
    These are from the 5 year stats half of my system. Both of your selections are in my 2 week stats half but unfortunately so are another 5 selections including both Haggas horses so will stick with those.

    Cheers Stuart

    Stuart Hazelwood 13/05/17 2:07 PM Reply


    • Good luck Stuart, Fastnet just too short for me in a race like that, missed the 8s or whatever was available a few days back/last night. Appears he has a decent chance. Squats just falls down on not having won over 7f but on paper it looks like he stays it no problem, always finishes strongly here- strikes me as needing a lot to fall right but he is 22s. I am not sure how much pace is on here, suspect plenty will be finishing strong late, and may want a stronger pace- that could include my two. But you never know how these will pan out fully.
      Hopefully one of our pins lands on the winner.
      The Chammings horse looked interesting at a price, TTP pick also and prob time a 5/7lb claiming jock won it! May have some change EW on him.

      Josh 13/05/17 2:20 PM Reply


  • Well done on the SBS micro Josh,got 11/1

    gearoid180468 13/05/17 2:35 PM Reply


    • cheers, yep that was fun to watch, always enjoy when they win like that! The money came in the end. Think 12s in places but I took 11s also. A decent start.

      Josh 13/05/17 2:39 PM Reply


  • I should really have passed on Solar Halo from the McCreery stable at the Curragh that just won at 14/1 but with so much racing today and it being a 3yo handicap,still there is a couple entered tomorrow,and with them flying will have a go at these

    gearoid180468 13/05/17 3:32 PM Reply


  • Cheers guys got Best Solution at 12s.
    Solar halo at 16s.
    I have Druminpete 8.30 War J Scott with nick schofield. 20s.
    What was the Trends guy Josh gave that je mentioned earlier?????.
    Just landed Indian Princess’s 9/2.
    Appleby at Nottingham.
    Good day alround. What a Blog.
    Josh and Conte in 24 hrs.

    Mike

    mickeydee 13/05/17 5:43 PM Reply


    • Sounds like a good day!
      Link to Festival Trends, by Gavin Priestley who is one of the good guys and was one of guys who got me interested in stats/trends/micro angles etc, along with Matt B and Ben Aitken etc…
      http://festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/aff/go/joshwright

      (that is an affiliate link 🙂 )

      Josh

      Josh 13/05/17 6:09 PM Reply


  • Willy Watch

    I am posting the qualifiers for Curragh tomorrow to avail of the early prices.Willy had a winner in a 3yo handicap today,good thing is trainer is still red hot,the bad is i didn’t post it,so really shouldn’t dismiss his 3 yo’s out of hand.

    2.25 Sweetest Taboo 1pt win 7/1 Bet365
    2.55 Ostatnia 1/2pt e/w 33/1 Bet365

    Sweetest Taboo ran well a few weeks ago 3rd to Miss Power,Miss Power is owned by The Powers,owners of Sole Power,so i would say that this one is heading for the top echelons,solid bet at a decent price.
    Willy has had a few winners in listed class at big prices at the Curragh so can’t dismiss Ostatnias chance,the O’Brien horse,Alcapulca has been highly touted coming from Wesley Wards but we are going for the value and the selection may sneak a place.Think that’s it until Killarney later in the week.

    gearoid180468 13/05/17 6:00 PM Reply


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