Members Daily Post: 12/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

 

Lingfield 

None.

 

Chester

1.50-

Sound Advice (micro distance) 12/1 WON 12/1

Lat Hawill (micro distance) 20/1 UP

5.05 – Nabhan (4yo+, + micro class/age)  14 G3 16/1 UP

 

Nottingham

6.50 – House Of Commons (micro class) I3 10/1 UP

 

Ascot 

5.35 – Oceane (micro class) I3 6/1 2nd 

6.05 – Ertiyad (1st 2yo) 15/2 2nd (nose)

 

Ripon

7.05 –

Straightothepoint (all hncps+micro distance) H1,I1,G3 5/2 2nd 

Lathom (4yo+, +micro age) I3, G1 4/1 UP

7.40 – Lincoln Rocks (4yo+, + micro age) H3,I3,G3 11/2 UP

8.15 –

Medina Sidenia (micro class) G3 7/1 UP

Attention Seeker (micro class) H3 16/1

 

JUMPS

Market Rasen 

2.05 – Swinton Diamond (hncp hurdle) 10/1 WON 10/1>5/1 (15p R4, 8.5/1)

3.10 – Destinys Gold (all hncps+micro age) 2/1 UP

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 1/8,6p, +7) (Jumps: 7/47, +23) (total: 8/55, +30)

 

2.05 MR – Swinton Diamond – 1 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/SB/BetF) 9/1 (general) WON 10/1>5/1 (15p R4, 8.5/1)

It has been a bit of a trudge since the last winner… which was only 6 days ago, but it feels a lot longer. That’s the ‘value’ game and I have taken another stab here. The market may well guide here- I don’t like Hammond drifters, (not sure if there are stats to back that up, I suspect there may be) as they are shrewd and seem to know when their horses are bouncing/in races they expect them to go well in. Swinton Diamond is having his 3rd start for the yard and is lightly raced. There should be more to come at some point, this being only his 4th handicap hurdle start. He may well be useless but I am sure his canny trainer will win the odd egg and spoon race with him. What caught my eye here? Well, other than the fact that there should be more to come at some point, I liked the fact that he drops in trip here, quite markedly so. I just watched the video of his last run and it was interesting- down the back, approaching the last flight, he made up plenty of ground and nearly took it up. It was an impressive change of gear, for the level. I don’t know what happened then as they turned in, but it is possible that after 74 days off, he started to tire and also that the trip then started to stretch him. Breeding suggests this may be as far as he wants to go, plenty of flat blood in him, 7-14f.  I have in my mind that he will track the leaders here, and attempt that impressive turn of foot jumping the last. Here’s hoping. Trainer/jockey are 3/15,9p in handicap hurdles at the track and at a double figure price I will have a stab. Hopefully he is nibbled at. If he isn’t, I expect he will start to go backwards at some point in the race. Oh, and he has dropped 13lb in the two runs Hammond has had him, the canny bugger 🙂 He is probably just out of form, but I can’t help myself at that price.

 

That will do for bet of the day.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

CHESTER: 

NOTES: READ HERE>>>

Just the Micro Angles today…

4.05 – Cheerfilly (micro 1+2, 8/1<)

5.05 – Modernism (micro 3, 10/1<)(He isn’t trained by Fahey!)

5.05 – Gabrial’s Star (he is..)

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SATURDAY….

I will get some trends/stats for the Victoria Cup up on the free post, and for Members’ a look at the Swinton Hurdle from Haydock- with any luck there may be some decent stats/trends there.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    Tim’s also got Attention Seeker in the 8.15

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 11/05/17 7:54 PM Reply


    • No idea how I miss those. cheers.

      Josh 11/05/17 8:05 PM Reply


  • Karl Burke does well with 2yo at Ripon.The profit figure of +106 includes a 66/1 winner but nonetheless the other 5 winners amassed a profit of +40.Star of Zaam 6pm at 8/1 might add to that tally.He can ready them fto too

    gearoid180468 11/05/17 8:00 PM Reply


  • Putting up my qualifiers earlier than usual due to 8.30 am tee off time in the morning want to be back in time to watch Chester 🙂

    FLAT
    Ripon

    7.05 – Straightothepoint (all hncps+micro distance) H1,I1,G3, 32%, 2/1+ price taken 3/1 (Bet365)

    7.40 – Lincoln Rocks (4yo+, + micro age) H3,I3,G3, 29%, 5/2+ price taken 11/2

    Good luck

    Gavin 11/05/17 10:20 PM Reply


  • The O’Brien angle stood up at Chester on Thursday. So did Ed Dunlop in handicaps and Dascombe/Kingscote over 5F.

    They all go again on Friday:

    2.25 Cliff of Moher; 3.35 US Army Ranger; 5.05 Michaels Mount; 4.35 Reflektor.

    martin colwell 11/05/17 10:38 PM Reply


  • 3 winners and 3 seconds yesterday so i’ll have another go 🙂
    Day 3 Chester festival.
    1-50.i’m going against the favourite in this with a couple of ew shots Sound Advice 10-1 and Hillbilly Boy 14-1
    2-25. both my poets let me down yesterday but i’m going with another in this Bay Of Poets 6-1
    3-00. nice open race and i think Evergate 5-1 should do well, at a bigger price Simmie 25-1 ew is very inconsistant but at the price is a worth the risk.
    3-35. i’m torn between US Army Ranger 5-2 and Western Hymn 9-1 and will probably have an interest on both.
    4-05. Gymnaste 5-4 should have the quality to take this but in this type of race upsets do happen.
    4-35. i’m going to take a chance on Reflektor 11-1 will have to run to his best but if on his game has every chance
    5-05. i really like the chance of Archippos 7-1 and will be my biggest bet of the day.

    martin whittle 12/05/17 1:16 AM Reply


  • great start with Sound Advice doesn’t need many of them to boost your bank back up 🙂

    martin whittle 12/05/17 2:10 PM Reply


    • Don’t forget bet of the day haha! Rather glad the Hammond horse won, I very nearly ‘tipped’ Sound Advice but talked myself out of him- damn, tipping wise. First time I have done that mind so I won’t complain. Glad you had a piece. TTP needed a couple of 10s+ .

      Josh 12/05/17 2:16 PM Reply


    • and now swinton diamond 8-1 🙂

      martin whittle 12/05/17 2:19 PM Reply


      • Lovely start to the day there

        nickmazur 12/05/17 2:22 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the “diamond” of a tip. backed it singly at 7/1 and a cheeky double with Dollar and a Dream in the 6:20 at Kilbeggan this evening.

    bricat 12/05/17 2:35 PM Reply


    • ha cheers…, no problem. well, that is exciting, I will watch with interest. Good luck!

      Josh 12/05/17 2:36 PM Reply


  • Dr Nick Hardman going well today at Chester with winners ( esrly prices) at 12/1,8/1 amd 10/1 so far at Chester. He has had an outstanding meeting.

    harriers 12/05/17 4:47 PM Reply


    • Yep, knows his stuff… all about the long term with him, his tipping approach not for everyone given win %, average odds etc – can mean some dips..but if you can live with those you’ll be well rewarded long term. His big race tipping record, over time, must be the best around. Glad you’ve had a good day.

      Josh 12/05/17 4:59 PM Reply


  • Star of Zaam was backed into 7/2,not out of stalls fast enough,made great progress to lead final furlong,then Jockey got his reins in a tangle and race was over before he got going again,one that got away

    gearoid180468 12/05/17 6:11 PM Reply


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