Members Daily Post: 11/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

Chester

1.50 – Brorocco (runs this season)  H1,I3 3/1 2nd 

 

Catterick

3.45 – Be Royale (4yo+) 16/1 UP

4.15 – Dream Serenade (4yo+) H3,I3 9/2 UP

 

JUMPS

Carlisle 

8.55 – Rockalzaro (NHF) H1 2/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester 

2.15 – Horseguardsparade (all hncps + hncp chase) I3 12/1 UP

4.55 –

Bite The Biscuit (all hncps) 14,30 13/2 UP

Gingli (hncp hurdle) H1, I1 5/1 UP

5.25 – Mr Kit Cat (hncp hurdle) 14  8/1 2nd 5/1

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 1/8,6p, +7) (Jumps: 7/46, +24) (total: 8/54, +31)

5.25 Worcester – Mr Kit Cat – 1 point win – 8/1 (BetF/PP/Boyle/Betway) 7/1 (general) 2nd 5/1

This one looks the most interesting on the day to my eye and I can’t ignore that he is doing a few things differently here… firstly the trainer is in form, 3/14, 6p the last 14 days and I can’t actually recall him being ‘in form’ for much/any? of the main winter season. I don’t know if they have had issues but they seem to be bouncing at the moment. The horse… This is only his 4th handicap hurdle run and he did show some ability in maidens, including a win over CD. We also know he handles Good to Firm- and this can get quick here- a few of the others have that to prove. I also found it interesting that the hood returns – he hasn’t worn that on his last two starts, and it returns here on his 3rd run back after a break. He wore it for his three decent career runs to date. Finally, he drops in class. This is the weakest handicap hurdle he has contested to date and he is still unexposed in this sphere. When you pull all of those factors together I think he looks a bet at 7/1, 8/1.

**

No other bets of the day.

 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS UPDATE: JAN-APRIL 2017 (‘Jumps’) : READ HERE>>>

I think this is worth a read and hopefully it all makes sense. These results have led to the odd change in thinking and some new results for those in the 10/1-25/1 range at morning prices. I urge you all to read the ‘summary’  which includes the #1 Advised strategy and Options 1+2.  All the notes/research etc follows and within that you may find some more ideas etc.

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CHESTER: 

NOTES: READ HERE>>>

 

Qualifiers/Notes…

MICROS

3.00 – Arc Royal (micro 1, if 8/1< SP)

4.05 – Dragons Tail (micro 2, slight caution 2yo only)

4.35 – Full Intention (micro 1)

5.05-

Capanova (micro 2)

Energia Fox (micro 3)

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Notes/starting points

(Any horse from AOB, worth second glance,but winners rarely missed by market)

1.50 – Brorocco (balding hncps / 9/1<)

3.00-

Aventinus (palmer)

Areen Heart (10/1< /distance)

Mutauratheb (hannon)

3.35 – AOP, all

4.05 –

Auntie Pam (all TD, 8/1<)

4.35 –

Leontes (Balding, hncps)

Zamjar (Dunlop)

5.05 –

Banish (palmer)

 

 

**

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Date & Title: 11th May Catterick 5f Nov
    4.25 Izzy Bizu, Royal Crown, Suanas
    3.75
    3.5
    3.25 Nisnas Alward, Capla Dancer,
    3
    2.75 Mistress Of Venice, Saella, Three Little birds
    2.5 Lady Anjorica
    2.25
    2
    Preview – With Capla Dancer carrying the extra 7lbs and 2to potential improvers looks too difficult to me.

    Date & Title: 11th May Chester 5f Mdn
    4.25 Dahik, Dragons Tail, Auntie Pam, Nobrassnolass
    3.75 Last Page, Milton Road, Porchy Party, Kat O’Strophic
    3.5
    3.25 Floss The Hoss
    3 Our Man In Havana
    2.75 Felisa
    2.5
    2.25
    2 Rusty Blade
    1.5 Haveoneyerself
    Preview – Very hard to get away from Dahik and Dragon’s Tail. Both of these looked mentally in need of the race on debut. They both have potential to improve, I hope for the sake of my post race ratings below that they finish in the correct order. It really depends who jumps best and gets the rail; with Franny Norton on a small one in stall one and these two in stalls 2 and 3 it should be a real tear up. Wild card is Jeremy Noseda’s Kat O’Strophic from 6. My notes suggest that when they have cost more than 60k (this one was 70k) they must be taken seriously, even more so with Buick up.
    Dahik the most likely winner as I just had the impression that Dragon’s Tail, although he ran well on debut, was a bit gawky and wouldn’t be best suited by Chester. However, no-one is better at getting them to jump than Richard Kingscote.
    I am hoping that Dahik wins this well to confirm my impression of the Doncaster race which is added below, but there is no value here for a bet.
    ‘This week for the first few races it was easy, small early season ready types mostly 60’s or lower but then suddenly at Doncaster there seems to be a field of better ones. Some of the good ones under-perform, some surprise me. It seemed to me that this was a better race and there should be at least 8 winners come out of it during the season. We shall see.’

    Prior race notes
    Dahik – Small but strongly made, a good Society Rock sprinter. Didn’t think he was ready to run as well as this as he looked a bit bulky. Develop well with time. 80
    Dragons Tail – Green in the prelims and looking overawed. Ok frame with the potential to get up to medium sized. Generally likeable good walker but far from ready to seriously compete. More mentally than physically and should go close nto. 72
    Auntie Pam – Clear now that the race she ran in at Wolverhampton was a bad one. Plain, small. 58
    Milton Road – Lower medium, compact and quite strongly made. Still a bit woolly and not fully tuned. Ran a competent race and should be competitive at a small track nto. 70
    Our Man In Havana – Chunky strong compact chap, carrying a bit of fat so not quite ready to give of his best. Slowly away from the widest draw and got behind, made up some ground but then ran out of puff late on. Improve and could find an early season race. 64
    Hugh

    alpha2 11/05/17 6:31 AM Reply


  • Chester festival day 2.
    a pretty good start yesterday so i’ll have another go today.
    1-50. Brorocco 3-1, had a good run lto at Epsom and worth a small wager.
    2-25. a tricky looking race with a few potential winners but i’m going to side with Poet’s Word 3-1.
    3-00. i’m going to let my heart rule my head in this one and go for Mutawatheb 11-2 always runs his heart out.
    3-35. the booking of Ryan Moore on Venice Beach 5-2 could be significant and is the probable winner, i’m also going to have a little ew on Druids Cross 20-1 if all 8 stay in.
    4-05. haven’t a clue in this one, if i had to pick one with a gun to my head i would probably go with Dragons Tail 5-1
    4-35. decent handicap with some fair runners i’ll side with Poets Society 6-1 drawn in the middle could run a big race.
    5-05.Kapstadt 7-1 is less exposed than many and ran a creditable 2nd in France lto only worry is the going likes it a bit softer.
    good luck all whatever you go for.

    martin whittle 11/05/17 7:00 AM Reply


    • Good luck today Martin, some good picks yesterday.

      Josh 11/05/17 10:16 AM Reply


  • Morning

    It’s a tough time at the minute early on in the test -5 points for the 3rd week so far and -8.23 points for May, losing run stands at 16. Still in profit overall +6.39 points, so fingers crossed for a turn around 😀

    My qualifiers for today
    FLAT
    Chester
    1.50 – Brorocco (runs this season) H1,I3, 22%, 3/1+ price taken 7/2 (188bet)

    JUMPS
    Carlisle
    8.55 – Rockalzaro (NHF) H1 90% even+ price taken 9/4 (skybet)

    SUMMER JUMPS
    Worcester
    4.55 – Gingli (hncp hurdle) H1, I1 21%, 7/2+ price taken 5/1(bet365)
    5.25 – Mr Kit Cat (hncp hurdle) 14 8/1 21% 7/2+ price taken 7/1(Stanjames not bog)

    Good luck all

    Gavin 11/05/17 10:05 AM Reply


    • Good luck Gavin, all about the long term and doesnt take many winners at good odds to turn any short term losing run around.
      Looks like we have the value on Mr Kit Cat, and we could do with a break! (i’ll get my coat)

      Josh 11/05/17 10:18 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, hehe I missed 8’s messing around this morning 7’s still nice value by the looks of the market although taken with SJ, I’ve lost BOG with them. Yep totally agree long term is the key as long I’m happy that I’m getting value, like you say it doesn’t take many winner at good odds. Had a few never misses four 2nd places this mouth which I think a couple of them where just by a head bob, all part of the game hehe 🙂 so overall happy with the approach and very very early day yet.

        Gavin 11/05/17 10:32 AM Reply


        • Yep, i don’t think your lack of BOG will matter now! and if he drifts back out to 7s+ I doubt he will be winning.
          I need to go through the results etc asap, but from memory there haven’t been many on the advised strategy #1, and I need to see how the 10/1-25/1s are getting on… 22/1, 14/1 winners recently from memory so they may have covered plenty of losers! Early days for the Flat stats, with any luck we all find an approach that works. As you say there have been a few near misses, a couple breathtakingly so, but that’s racing and it should even out over time. You have patience, so will do just fine!

          Josh 11/05/17 10:37 AM Reply


  • 2 for me today. 3.00 Chester Via Egnatia, front runner, drawn 1, Gosden/Dettori combo, top 2 speed rating, form of impressive maiden win last back end franked by Never Surrender win yesterday. Maybe not fully wound up lto so can forgive that run, i’m surprised its 4/1, so maybe i’m missing something.
    The other i like is 3.45 Catt Alpine Dream ,came 6th in Hot race at Thirsk over 6f lto, running on from the back, 7F today, trainer could be inbetter form, but 8/1 good enough for me

    jamesm 11/05/17 10:34 AM Reply


    • GL James… hmm yep that Alpine Dream does look interesting… a lot of Tim’s have been needing the run I think this year/may be deliberate, but not many have won 1st time up after a break. Can see why you like him, unexposed still, ran ok LTO- came wide as well, and the way he won at Carlisle over 6f, up that hill, suggests 7f around here could be ideal- fair bit of pace on paper also,which could collapse. I may have to have a nibble. Good spot. 8s seems big.

      Josh 11/05/17 10:43 AM Reply


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