Members Daily Post: 10/05/17 (comp+Chester)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

Chester

5.05 –

Call Out Loud (all hncps/4yo+) H3 20/1 UP

Edgar Balthazar (micro distance) 25/1

Dark Defender (micro distance) 14/1 UP

 

Bath

7.05 – Gannicus (all hncps) 9/1

7.35 –

Saint Helena (4yo+) 7/1

Russian Reward (micro going) NR

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Newton Abbot

3.45 – Ballybolley (all hncps) I3 4/1 UP

5.15 –

Sheer Poetry (hncp + micro runs this season) 33/1 UP

Treasure The Ridge (micro age) 8/1 UP 12/1

 

JUMPS

Kelso

2.45 –

Witness In Court (all hncps + hncp chase) H3, I3 5/1 UP

Avidity (micro age) 8/1 2nd 13/2

3.20 – Zaru (hncp hurdle) 12/1 UP 22/1

4.25 – Surprise Vendor (hncp hurdle) 10/1 UP

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day (Test) 

(Flat: 1/8,6p, +7)

(Jumps: 7/44, +26)

3.20 Kelso- Zaru – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) UP 22/1 (market told the story there this time)

5.15 Newton Abbot – Treasure The Ridge – 1 point win – 8/1 UP 12/1 (another drift which seemed to tell the story)

 

Zaru – I am a sucker for throwing money away at older jumps horses and here is another. This one stands on on geegeez gold instant expert as being most suited to conditions and that is always a useful starting point. He is 20lb below his last winning mark and on closer inspection I want to roll the dice on the basis of the going. All of his best form in open company is on a sound surface. In handicaps he is 2/5 on good and 0/11,1p on everything else, from Good to Soft-Heavy. In October he returned after 2 years off and ran well. In the seven runs since he has only raced on Goood once, and that was over 3m at Donny at a time when I don’t think the yard were firing. Indeed if memory serves me right they had a torrid middle of the main winter season- possibly an illness, and it could be this one’s more laboured efforts were down to that, combined with the fact that he has never really liked soft or worse. The benefit is that his mark has tumbled and ‘if’ he can run up to the level of any of his wins, he takes this. The market will guide here I think- if he isn’t backed then I won’t be expecting anything. With any luck he is tuned up (has won in this rest pattern) as despite his age he hasn’t had that much racing. If he is he could give these plenty to think about.

Treasure The Ridge – he ticks the ‘unexposed’ box and a decent enough price. This is his fourth hurdle run and makes handicap hurdle debut here. Hill is 2/16,3p with such types, +36 SP, 1/5 at Newton Abbot. Trainer/jockey are 1/1 and he just has a bit of the ‘could be anything’ about him in this sphere. He used to be a decent performer on the flat and his last two runs indicate that he is at least coming into some form. It looks like the tongue tie has helped. He may need further, he may not have much in hand in this discipline, but I am guessing a bit and at 15/2+, will take a stab. Backing this type will see us do just fine, over time.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS UPDATE: JAN-APRIL 2017 (‘Jumps’) : READ HERE>>>

I think this is worth a read and hopefully it all makes sense. These results have led to the odd change in thinking and some new results for those in the 10/1-25/1 range at morning prices. I urge you all to read the ‘summary’  which includes the #1 Advised strategy and Options 1+2.  All the notes/research etc follows and within that you may find some more ideas etc.

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CHESTER: 

NOTES: READ HERE>>>

‘Qualifiers’

Micro Angles

3.00- Reflektor (micro 2, if 8/1 or shorter)

4.05 – Teodoro (micro 1+2, if 8/1<)

5.05- Gin In The Inn / Gabrial The Tiger (micro 3, if 10/1<)

Notes:

1.50 –

Central City (Palmer)

Requinto Dawn (Fahey,dist/2yo only – 10/1<)

Big Time Maybe (Dascombe, odds, 8/1<)

2.25 – Alluringly (AOB)

4.05 –

Whip Nae Nae (Hannon)

Global Revival (Dunlop)

4.35 –

Meccabah (Balding, 9/1<.. very strong,could be a micro)

Bristol Missile (Hannon)

Dacombe’s – got 3 in here, only of any interest if 8/1<

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Any questions, fire away…

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    I think Dalgleish’s pair in the 5.05 qualify on distance.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 09/05/17 6:23 PM Reply


    • Indeed they do, I am not sure that distance stat even clocked in my head when going through that race. Think I have ‘spreadsheet’ eyes today! Thanks.

      Josh 09/05/17 6:30 PM Reply


  • Matt from Geegeez points us towards Jamie Spencer at Chester. He has four rides on Wednesday.

    Dascombe and Kingscote over 5F may pay?

    Good luck,

    martin colwell 09/05/17 9:01 PM Reply


  • i think im getting close to the workhouse over the last week or so nothing coming close to winning, are you sure these tips are not lays./

    trev knight 09/05/17 10:31 PM Reply


    • Hi Trev… thanks for your comment, always welcome…

      1. The only ‘tips’ are in section 2, ‘bet of the day’ is doing ok at the moment,albeit a test and the wheels may well come off but over time I should do fine. Indeed the #1 advised strategy on the jumps + my ‘test tips’ are over +100 points, and over a 100% ROI- hopefully that is a guide for the future and I/#1 strat, will repeat those figures over time. There is no logical reason why #1 strat won’t work over time on the ‘jumps’ stats, the question is how it will do on the Flat, and whether the new ‘I’ ratings can help, esp for Summer Jumps.

      2. Please read the results update above as that may help, esp understanding how the jumps stats have performed over time, with the peaks and troughs. Any one time period can either look like we have struck gold (Jan + March) or don’t have a clue (Feb+April) but that’s how betting with no odds caps, 10/1+ etc goes.

      3. It is always question then of how you approach the content…

      How have you approached the content to date?

      -I have never advised backing everything to level stakes as that is a lot of bets, a low win % sr, and a very very bumpy ride. It has been profitable- in fact backing all jumps bets since Oct blind won followers +100 BFSP come end of April. But, there are much better approaches as discussed in results updates, as above. Backing everything is not advised.

      -I have tried to stress that the Flat is an unknown and to be treated with some caution until it settles down. Logically I hope the #1 strategy transfers to the flat. I need to update results for the Flat+Summer jumps and will do so by the end of next week, so that I can start to build a picture- but I don’t think there have been many on the #1 advised strategy and the stats have been finding winners. I dare say backing the lot hasn’t done that well so far but I need to look at the different approaches, using what has worked for the ‘jumps’ Jan-April as a guide/starting point.

      As ever with all these things it goes up and down and anyone who is patient over time will hopefully be rewarded. The jumps stats, the success of #1 strat in that period, and success of the stats in the 10/1-25/1 range, should give you some confidence moving forwards. In the coming weeks results from the Flat/Summer jumps will confirm whether my own confidence is well placed or not.

      For now I would stick to the #1 strategy if you like/trust that approach. You can hold off on the Flat if you want to wait for more evidence to build. And you can follow my ‘bet of the day’ if you want, or again can wait for more evidence. Or just dip in and out of everything as you please.

      Best, Josh

      Josh 10/05/17 9:26 AM Reply


  • Paddy Brennan has had a profitable relationship on Paul Hendersons chasers in the last year or so.He rides Turban in 2.35 Newton Abbot,shouldn’t be good enough to win this but then that’s what i have been backing for last few years,an e/w price at 20/1 if there isn’t 2 withdrawals

    gearoid180468 09/05/17 10:40 PM Reply


  • I’ve had a torrid few weeks but trying to get back into the saddle. In the Chester Cup (15:35) I like the look of Yorkidding. Drawn well and likes to race prominently. Kingscote is arguably the best jockey at the track. Last year’s Cesarewich has been throwing up winner after winner. She normally needs her re-appearance run so her run LTO was eye-catching. She has ran well both times at the track. When interviewed by Mark Howard before the start of last season Johnston mentioned she comes from a family which improve with age so I am hoping she can take the next step up. I also want a bet on Twin Point in the 17:05. Has a plum draw and and Donohoe does well at this meeting. Comes from a very hot class 3 race (winner won again and went close at the AW championships, 3rd won and went close in a 32k class 2 race and 6th won a class 3) and drops down to a class 4. He is the only front runner who is drawn well and will like the ground. I expect him to be there or thereabouts.

    Moving to Newton Abbot I want to concentrate on the two Tizzard runners with Harry Cobden onboard both. Firstly I think Gentleman Jon looks overpriced. He has excuses for his last three runs but is now only 2lbs higher than his win in a Listed race last October. He really does need good ground to be effective and wont mind if it turns fast. I think several at the top of the market have been priced up on the basis of their trainers and not their achievements. He won on his last visit to the track this time last year. Tizzard is still flying with a winner today and outside Puppy, Cobden now appears to be Tizzard’s go to jockey. 20/1 looked overpriced. I also want a shot at Muffins for Tea in the 17:15. Ran a solid race LTO finishing 2nd of 15 which has work out well (7th, 10th and 11th have all won since and most of those who finished higher haven’t ran yet-record of all runners who have ran in class 4s since is 3/8, 5p). Cobden is 3/10,6p in all handicap hurdles at the track in the past 12 months. Expect him to be there or thereabouts.

    nickmazur 09/05/17 11:34 PM Reply


    • Watersmeet is fancied by the Johnston yard, Nick.

      chrisrees 10/05/17 5:23 AM Reply


      • Perfect example of why its not wise to trust what a trainer says. Thought I had that! 🙁

        nickmazur 10/05/17 3:46 PM Reply


        • Gamble on Muffins landed to make up for the Chester Cup. Not sure why they didn’t lead on Twin Point but 1st, 2nd 3rd and 5th from 4 picks will do.

          nickmazur 10/05/17 5:47 PM Reply


          • Yep a solid return to form there Nick! Well done, super stuff. What price you get on the winner? was 8s wasn’t he? top work and unlucky in Chester Cup. Not sure of Twin Point was quick enough out the gates/quick enough to lead them as it turned out. I was hoping he would make all but those front two were by far best handicapped horses in race so probably made little difference. Think a few of mine are still running!

            Josh 10/05/17 5:57 PM Reply


            • Ah fair enough. Maybe he is just better on the AW. Yeah got the 8s. Everything dropped in price by 40% or more and barring 15p on Jon there were no rule 4 so certainly got the value everywhere. That race I mentioned for Muffins certainly bears watching since I think it will produce more winners at this level.

              nickmazur 10/05/17 6:10 PM Reply


  • here’s a copy of my FB post, i normally put something up for the big meetings (with mixed results)
    first day of Chester festival bur there’s not much to go on in some of the races.
    1-50. Emelia James 5-2 and Yogi’s Girl 5-1 both went well lto and are worth considering.
    2-25. Frankie on Gosden’s Enable could be the one in this but 2-1 is a bit short and my confidence isn’t strong enough for more than a fun bet.
    3-00. again no real confidence in anything in this just a small ew on Spring Loaded 8-1 for interest.
    3-35.Chester Cup. Yorkidding is drawn well and could make all and will be my main bet 12-1 ew, with a couple of small savers on Watersmeet 10-1 and Sir Chauvelin 18-1, some bookies paying 6 places.
    4-05. The Blues Master looks the value 14-1 ew if all 8 run.
    4-35. best watched as something good could come out of the race but nothing stands out.
    5-05. my eye keeps getting drawn to Call Out Loud 22-1 ew but the going and draw are negatives, the favourite Gin In The Inn could hose up but at15-8 i’m not convinced.
    if your having a go good luck whatever you back.

    martin whittle 10/05/17 7:08 AM Reply


    • Past result are showing that position nr3 is worse possible,exactly number 3,from 1 to7 are best exept nr3 i am going nr3 he had great run on Ling World Championship,many horses with good result from that event are doing well on turf

      Pab 10/05/17 10:19 AM Reply


      • Correct i am going for Watersmeet

        Pab 10/05/17 10:21 AM Reply


  • Treva Knight,

    I noted your comment an while you are entitled to your opinion I certainly don’t think it is helpful, any punter/tipster will have a correction in fortune at some point it’s what keeps us grounded so to speak, also while I’m not defending josh he can do that himself, this is still very in the summer jumps and flat season, oh and just a quick piece of advice, I certainly would lay them, as the results suggest you will certaianly end up in the work house,

    Atb

    Paul

    Paul 10/05/17 8:04 AM Reply


  • My qualifiers for today
    FLAT
    Chester
    5.05 – Call Out Loud (all hncps/4yo+) H3, 18% 5/1+ price taken 20/1

    SUMMER JUMPS
    Newton Abbot
    3.45 – Ballybolley (all hncps) I3 20% 4/1+ price taken 9/2

    Good luck

    Gavin 10/05/17 10:02 AM Reply



  • Brown Trix 4.55 Kelso
    50/1 massive over price could sneak a place

    Graham Ashford 10/05/17 1:17 PM Reply


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