Members Club Results: End April 2017 (complete)

 

SUMMARY 

There is plenty to wade through below and it is worth some of your time. In this summary I will focus on the advised strategies/angles as I see them. Remember this analysis only refers to the main ‘Jumps’ stats results, not the Summer Jumps or Flat stats. In the next few weeks I will pull together results in the same way.

Provided the core stats work in the same way, the #1 Advised Strategy should transfer to the Flat stats. Unfortunately there are no Geegeez Speed ratings for jumping over the Summer.

 

#1 Advised Strategy 

Rules:

  • Horse Qualifiers Against Stats Pack – All qualifiers listed in section 1 of Members Daily Post
  • Horse is a Geegeez Speed Ratings Pointer Horse indicated by a G1 or G3 symbol
  • Horse is priced 10/1 or bigger on morning prices as indicated by the odds I add next to the qualifiers. Alternatively they can be 10/1 or bigger at  a time that you look. I take a temperate check using oddschecker and ensure that the price is available with at least two ‘bog’ bookies. The horse qualifies if in this price range and a bet can be placed, either taking a price or to BFSP.
  • The horse also qualifies IF it is priced 11.00 or bigger at Betfair Starting Price. This covers those horses that are under 10/1 on morning prices but then drift. On morning prices they would not have qualified, but if their BFSP is 11.00 or bigger they qualify that way. You can set a ‘minimum’ odds for these types at a time that suits you. There is no need to monitor prices.

Results:

  • 2017 to End April (Jan/Feb/March/April)
  • 76 bets / 12 wins / 16% sr / +74 early|bog / +99 BFSP / 130% ROI

Notes:

  • As you will see from the analysis below there are now questions over horses that only have a HorseRaceBase rating (H1/H3) and NO Geegeez Speed rating. These types are –  35 bets / 2 wins / -8 early|bog / -18.5 BFSP . The stats for All Ratings Pointers with a H1/H3 rating also add to the evidence and at this stage I don’t think it is advisable to back them ‘systematically’.
  • You will also see that there is some analysis on horses that have a morning price of 10/1 to 25/1. Those Geegeez qualifiers that are bigger than 25/1 on morning prices are 0/8,0 places. These are small numbers and at this stage not a reason to dismiss them completely. They may well pick out a monster one day. But, those are the stats and given there hasn’t been any winner as yet that had a morning price bigger than 25/1, it is something to keep an eye on.
  • ‘DOUBLE RATED’ to note that those qualifiers against this angle that also have a HRB rating (H1/H3) are –
    • 12 bets / 3 wins / +29 early|bog / +30 BFSP

 

This is the only ‘advised’ strategy as such, that I think is a decent starting point for systematic backers. Geegeez Speed ratings will return to the Jumps stats in October as they are currently unavailable. In the coming weeks evidence will grow as to the best approach to the Summer Jumps and Flat stats, and whether HRB or Inform Racing Ratings can have a positive impact.

What follows are a couple of other systematic ideas, to consider.

 

Option #2 

‘It’s All About The Odds’ 

Rules:

  • Horse is listed in section 1 and is priced between 10/1 and 25/1 (inclusive) at morning prices. (or at a time that suits you. The results are based on the morning prices I add next to the horse). Their starting price can be outside of this range but they qualified based on their morning price.
  • That’s it. You then place your bet, either taking a price or to BFSP. Results are recorded to BFSP.
  • Having looked through the winners you would have made an extra +20 points by taking the morning odds quoted.

Results:

2017 to End April (Jan/Feb/March/April)

  • 322 bets / 32 wins / 10% win SR / /+170 early|bog / +150 BFSP / 47% ROI

 

Notes:

  • I think this is the most profitable systematic approach that there is. It is this price range where the profits are made. Those that fall outside of this range on morning prices are -115 point to BFSP. (We know that ‘all qualifiers’ are +35 points BFSP) Note that the ROI is healthy, but that at the moment the #1 advised strategy is much higher. But in terms of points profit, it is the highest I have found.
  • Losing Runs: There have been some hefty ones, as you would imagine with these odds. 27, 36, 42 were the longest ones in those four months with many others in the 8-15 range. I would recommend a 150 point bank to be safe, start betting small and building up over time.
  • It should be noted that +117 points worth of this profit came from three big priced winners. But if you remove those they are still operating at a respectable 12% ROI and the point of this approach is to help find those winners. There has yet to be winner with a bigger morning price than 25/1.
  • This is a healthy stats pool and should give some confidence moving forwards.
  • Another option is to use these ‘qualifiers’ as your starting point in which to add in your own thoughts and to be more selective. Hopefully this base set of stats gives you that confidence moving forwards.

 

Option #3 

‘Bet Of The Day’ 

  • This can be found in section 2 of the Members Daily Posts and my attempt to ‘tip’, using the stats qualifiers in section 1 as a starting point.
  • As I write these are 8/50, +35 points, to 1 point win bets. It is still in ‘test’ phase but it has shown decent promise. I have a fairly set approach with these and in theory see no reason why they won’t tick along over time. Sometimes there are no tips on the day, sometimes there are a handful. I try and focus on those outside of the #1 strategy so that I am adding to those profits. If I can make 100+ tipping points per season say, or per year, hopefully that would be a worthwhile contribution to your experience, and my own bank balance!
  • Do start with small stakes if you decide to follow. I will not be keeping up a 70% ROI and there will be the odd long losing run. But I have confidence in my approach with these, over time.

 

To Conclude…

The #1 strategy and Options 1/2 are an attempt to provide you with a ‘systematic’ approach to the qualifiers against my stats packs. These are options that you can just follow, without much thought, if you wish. Whatever you do with the information above, and below, hopefully it helps you get the best out of the qualifiers.

Any questions, then fire away.

Come the end of May I will be in a better place to discuss the Flat + Summer Jumps and how to approach those but with any luck Option 2 will show similar results as will #1 for the Flat horses. It is early days in terms of my experiment with Inform Racing’s Ratings.

You can find the spreadsheets below and notes on various others angles I have looked at. These build on previous results updates with the addition of some new information/ideas.

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Spreadsheets:-

1.ALL QUALIFIERS: CLICK HERE>>>

2.RATINGS POINTERS: CLICK HERE>>>

 

2017/April Results Update

NOTE: These results refer to the main ‘Jumps’ stats – ie not Flat or Summer Jumps

 

Jumps

Part 1

1.All Qualifiers

Results

  • April: 254 bets / 33 wins / 13% sr / -47 early/bog / -62 BFSP
  • 2017 to date: End of April 2017-
    • 935 bets / 130 wins / 14% sr/ +74 early/bog/ +34 BFSP
  • Main ‘winter season’ Oct 16-April 17:
    • +140 points Early/Bog
    • +100 points BFSP

 

2.#1 Advised Strategy: ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+’

Results

  • April: 32 bets / 3 wins / 9% sr / +2 early/bog / -1.4 BFSP
  • 2017 to date: End of April 2017
    • 113 bets / 14 wins / 12.5% sr / +83.65 BFSP / 74% ROI

 

3.All Qualifiers ‘10/1’+

Results

  • Non Ratings Pointers, 10/1+
    • 89 bets / 4 wins / 5% sr / -41.5 BFSP
    • 2017 to date: 308 bets / 21 wins / 7% sr / +14.5 BFSP / 5% ROI
  • ALL 10/1+ (inc ratings pointers)
    • April: 121 bets / 7 wins / -43 BFSP
    • 2017 to date: 421 bets / 35 wins / 8% sr / +98.4 BFSP / 23% ROI

4.Saturdays

Results All Qualifiers

  • April: 75 bets / 5 wins / -38 BFSP
  • 2017 to date as end of April: 248 bets / 35 wins / 14% sr / +108 BFSP

 

Results All Qualifiers ‘10/1+’

  • April: 43 bets / 1 win / -30 BFSP
  • 2017 to date as end of April: 135 bets / 10 wins / 7.5% sr / +65 BFSP

 

Results All Ratings Pointers Horses On Saturdays (any odds)

  • April: 31 bets / 1 win / -27 BFSP
  • 2017 to date end of April: 100 bets / 16 wins / 16% sr / +19 BFSP

 

5.20/1+ Shots

(either morning prices or BFSP)

  • April: 0/51, -51
  • 2017 Total: 194 bets / 6 wins / 3% sr / -38 BFSP

 

6.11.00-20.9 BFSP

I have had a look at All Qualifiers that were sent off 11.00 – 19.9/1 at BFSP..

  • 2017 To Date: 201 bets / 22 wins / 11% sr / +91 BFSP / 45% ROI

 

7.NEW! 10/1-25/1 shots

(the ‘optimum’ price range)

The ‘Rules’ 

  • Morning Prices (those I put on the blog next to horse) 10/1 to 25/1 inclusive
  • Place bet at Betfair Starting Price (no minimum odds, faffing about etc) Just BFSP
  • (it can be in this price range at a time that you look)

Results

  • 2017 – Jan/Feb/March/April
  • 322 bets / 32 wins / 10% win SR / +150 BFSP (after 5% commission) / 47% ROI

 

Notes

Ignoring any ratings pointers etc this approach appears to be the most ‘profitable’ angle. There is plenty of logic here. The shorter priced ones generally just pay for themselves/run at a loss. And at the other end there is a lot of dead-wood when you head north of 25/1. By using this ‘morning price’ approach we are also getting some guidance from the bookies traders/bots etc or whatever they use to form the initial market. This is some guide. As yet there hasn’t been a winner put in at a price bigger than 25/1 in the morning.

Caution. It should be noted this angle includes the three biggest priced winners, worth +112 points in total. That means the rest are worth around +38 points BFSP, which is still a 12% return on investment. That’s a figure most pro gamblers would be happy with over time.

Losing runs… this approach is for the brave. I would advise at least a 150 point bank to be safe. There have been losing runs of 27, 36 and 42 in those 4 months. And many in the 8-20 range.

This approach has averaged around 2.7 bets per day in that time period and it will be interesting if such an approach produces similar figures for the Summer Jumps + Flat stats.

 

8.National Hunt Flat Horses

  • 2017 Total to end April: 93 bets / 17 wins / +14 BFSP 

NOTE: These figures include the Micky Hammond winner at 49.00 BFSP and if you removed that then the rest of them have lost -35 points. So, it would appear that backing these systematically – outside of one of the strategies/angles – is questionable. These runners do not have Geegeez Speed ratings and many will have been short enough in the market. For the next edition of the guide I may just focus on those NHF making their racecourse debut, rather than all NHF runners. 

 

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Part 2

Ratings Pointers

All Ratings Pointers

  • April: 115 bets / 18 wins / -23 early/bog / -28.5 BFSP
  • Total 2017 to date, end of April: 436 bets / 80 wins / 18% sr/+34 early/bog/+32.5 BFSP
  • 7% / 8% ROI

 

Geegeez Speed vs HorseRaceBase

Geegeez Speed

April

  • Top Rated: 2/16, -7 early/bog, -7.8 BFSP.
  • Top 3 (2nd or 3rd rated): 11/62, -9.5 early/bog, -7 BFSP

Total 2017 to date (end April)

  • Top Rated: 96 bets / 21 wins / +23 early/bog / +11.2 BFSP
  • Top 3: 189 bets / 33 wins / +44.5 early/bog / +51 BFSP
  • TOTAL: 285 bets / 54 wins / 19% sr / +67.5 early|bog / +62 BFSP
  • 24% ROI

HorseRaceBase

April

  • Top Rated: 6/32, -9 early/bog, -11 BFSP
  • Top 3 (2nd or 3rd rated): 8/51, -10 early/bog, -18 BFSP

Total 2017 to date (end April)

  • Top Rated: 102 bets / 26 wins / -2.5 early|bog/+12 BFSP
  • Top 3 (2nd or 3rd rated): 199 bets / 31 wins /-6 early|bog / -26 BFSP
  • Total: 301 bets / 57 wins / 19% sr / -8.5 early|bog / -14 BFSP

 

Ratings Pointers 10/1+

Geegeez Speed

  • April: 17 bets / 2 wins / +1 early|bog / +2 BFSP
  • Total 2017: 64 bets / 9 wins / +45 early|bog / +63 BFSP

 

HorseRaceBase

  • April: 11 bets / 1 win / +6 early|+0.5 BFSP
  • Total 2017: 35 bets / 2 wins / -8 early|bog / -18.5 BFSP

 

Combined/Double Rated (so when a horse hits both Gegeez+HRB)

  • April, 0/2,0p
  • Total 2017: 12 bets / 3 wins / +29 early|bog / +30 BFSP

 

NOTES: 

A case is mounting to ignore any qualifiers that just have a HorseRaceBase rating.

By focusing on those with a Geegeez Rating, + the ‘double qualifiers’ we get..

76 bets / 12 wins / 16% sr / +74 early|bog / +99 BFSP

Having looked through the ratings pointers horses that are bigger than  25/1 on morning prices- those are currently 9/0,0p, and from the ‘All qualifiers’ we know there have been no winners in this price range on morning odds. 8 of those losers have been Geegeez Speed ratings.

So…

Geeegeez Speed Ratings Pointer (G1/G3) (includes those double rated), 10/1-25/1 on morning odds, OR 11.00+ BFSP…

68 bets / 12 wins / 18% sr / +82 early/bog / +107 BFSP

 

 

All ‘double rated’ Qualifiers

All Odds

  • April: 40 bets / 8 wins / -12 early|bog / -12 BFSP
  • Total 2017: 131 bets/ 29 wins / 22% sr / +25 early|bog, +14 BFSP

6/1 + BFSP (7.00+)

  • April: 0/6,0p, -6
  • Total 2017: 37 bets / 9 wins / +50 early|bog / +40 BFSP

 

ALL Ratings Pointers Under  6/1 BFSP

  • April: 73 bets / 15 wins / -22 BFSP
  • Total 2017: 253 bets / 61 wins / 24% sr / -29 BFSP

 

Which means…

Ratings Pointers 7.00+ BFSP

183 bets / 19 wins / 10% sr / +61.5 BFSP 

Within this, ‘HRB Only’ qualifiers are 3/69, -36 BFSP

So, Geegeez Speed Ratings, 7.00+ BFSP

114 bets / 16 wins / 14% sr / +97 BFSP

 

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Placed Horses/EW 

I have had a brief look at EW betting, using the ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+ as a guide…

So those top level figures…

113 bets / 14 wins / +84 BFSP

‘Only’ a further 13 horses have placed. So 27 won or placed.

Using a 1 point EW scenario…

Using 1/5th of the odds, and having noted the place returns, an ‘average’ return of +3 points per placed horse

We get +42 more points for the 14 winners

We get +26 points back from the placed horses, once you remove the ‘win’ side of the bet which is a loser.

That is +68 more points returned betting 1 point EW on the winners + placed horses.

But we lose 84 x 1 point ‘place’ bets for those horses that finished unplaced.

Which I think means, roughly, that a 1 point EW bet on the #1 advised strategy would have lost you around -16 points from the top level figures above.

Betting win only seems to be the best way forward. There are not enough placed horses, and not enough of them at juicy prices, to make it worthwhile. Betting 1 point EW would also reduce the return on investment, and 1/2 EW would drastically reduce the profits also.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

2 Comments

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  • That’s some body of work there Josh,I suppose its natural that April would be a dodgy time for machines predicting things,April is a bit of a winding down time for the jumps,will be interesting if October is similar,when trainers are just getting pipe openers in

    gearoid180468 09/05/17 11:04 PM Reply


    • Yep, who knows. There is some logic there but odd how one superb month has been followed by an awful one from Jan-April, backing them all. A more even spread would be nice! But, the #1 strategy wiped it’s face and was 1 or 2 placed horses away from having a decent enough month. It will be interesting to see what any graph looks like over time,and I will create some kind of visualisation in due course. Provided ‘backing all’ (not advised) ticks over and makes a profit, we should have enough selections with which to attack/find the best approach- and with strat #1, and Option#2,we may have that.

      Josh 10/05/17 12:51 PM Reply


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