Members Daily Post: 04/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps

Towcester

3.20-

Moscow Me (hncp hurdle) H3 8/1

Ujagar (hncp hurdle) 8/1

 

Sedgefield

6.00- Christmas Twenty (hncp chase) 12/1

6.30 –

Bell Weir (all hncps) H1  I3 5/1

Four Mile Beach (all hncps) 14 5/1

Knocknamona (micro class + age) I1 8/1

7.30 –

Sendiym (hncp hurdle) I3 7/1

Grand Paradiso (micro age) I3 9/2

8.30 –

Brecon Hill (NHF) H1, I1 4/6

Kick On Dottie (NHF) 14  9/2

 

Flat 

Redcar

2.00 – Our Little Pony (1st 2yo) 6/4

4.30 –

Tailor’s Raw (all hncps + 3yo+) I3 8/1

Shamaheart (TJC) G1 16/1

 

Musselburgh

7.10 – Ellaal (micro TJC+going+distance) 10/1

8.40 –

Tanawar (micro going) H1, I3, G3 6/4

Jessie Allan (micro runs) 20/1

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

No bet of the day test today. I have had a good flick through all qualifiers/races and nothing is really jumping out at me. As I write I have had a nibble on Shamaheart as he is a #1 strat qualifier from the flat and although still early days for that approach, I still throw something at them. And as yet I don’t have a penny on anything else. There are a few multiple qualifiers in races which makes ‘tipping’ one a bit dangerous, and plenty of the races are moderate enough. 3.20 Towcester- well both in there look interesting to a point but it is moderate and there are few lightly raced ones from decent yards that look interesting – but at 8s the pair some sort of case could be made I suppose. Moscow Me may go off 11.00+ on BFSP and qual on #1 strategy that way. Nothing at Sedgefield grabbed me at the morning prices but I am sure one or two will leave me with egg on my face.

Good luck with whatever you go with, and it will be interesting to watch how the new speed ratings get on.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

VERY IMPORTANT- PLEASE READ >>>

You may have noticed some new symbols next to the qualifiers, as explained in the updated ‘Key’ above. With the kind permission of Mr Inform Racing (Ian Welch) I have added his unique speed ratings into the mix. (I1,I3)I could test these in private but there ins’t much fun in that really and you may as well benefit from their success.  The Top 3 in Ian’s Master+Average column for speed ratings average around a 56% win strike rate in handicaps- of course that’s if you backed all three in any said race. But, that is decent.

With any luck they will operate in a similar way, or even better, than Dr Peter May’s Speed ratings. (Geegeez Speed, G1/G3)

The #1 advised strategy will remain as it is at the moment, until any official update. We need some evidence from live play.

As I have said previously with the flat stats, we will know much more in a few weeks time- however it looks like backing the lot may tick along in a similar way to the jumps, which is our foundation. With any luck the ratings pointers do the same job, or even better, than they have on the jumps. I will add them into the results recording from now on.

You are free to use them how you please but it may be wise to ignore them until their is further evidence. However, these ratings clearly work as Ian’s service has been around for a number of years. There is plenty of interesting content on Ian’s website/blog and you can check that out HERE>>>

I have no plans on adding more ‘ratings’ to the team.

Any questions etc then do fire away.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

4 Comments

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  • My qualifiers

    Jumps

    Towcester
    3.20 – Moscow Me (hncp hurdle) H3 18% 9/2+ price taken 9/1

    Flat

    Musselburgh
    8.40 – Tanawar (micro going) H1, I3, G3 24% 3/1+ to match bfsp min odds 4.0

    Good Luck

    Gavin 03/05/17 10:48 PM Reply


  • Shamaheart 18/1 only one CD winner 1 lb above winning mark lto race at Nott 7/14 but only 3.75 btn

    Pab 04/05/17 1:10 AM Reply


  • Josh it looks an intersting new angle, have just viewed the vid on above link.
    One Question what is the differance 11 & 13 and don’t say 2!

    Gary 04/05/17 2:38 PM Reply


    • Hi Gary…
      As with HorseRaceBase and Geegeez, the ‘1’ so H1, G1, I1, just marks out whether they were Top Rated in the race, rated #1! (that can include joint rated #1s)

      H3,G3,I3 is effectively those that were rated #2 or #3 in the race.

      I just like recording it that way as it may, or may not, give use options/strategies moving forward etc, if we can see how the Top Rated get on over time. Just gives members more options really.

      I wasn’t forced to try another as such- but there is no Geegeez Speed ratings for the jumps until September- so needed to try something speed related. Suspect the methodologies are very different so it will be interesting how they do, and with any luck will help us add more profits from as few a bets as possible.

      Hope that helps,
      Josh

      Josh 04/05/17 2:48 PM Reply


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