Free Daily Post: 04/05/17 (complete)

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

7.30 –

Im Still Waiting (12/1< guide)

Hughesie (12/1< guide)

 

A Perrett – AW (12/1<)

3.40 Ling – Russian Reward

 

**

Horses Of Interest…

6.20 Clonmel – Ruler Of France- 15/2 (general) UP 8/1

Didn’t move in the market, and you would have liked to see some money. Lead, although pestered, not that it mattered. Ran as if he needed it in the end. No significance to that jockey booking at all! 

I can’t leave this one unbacked- one of those where it seems too good to be true – and they never go well. But, using the various tools within Geegeez Gold he stands out somewhat.

The ‘way in’ is his trainer- 4/9,6p with horses returning after 60+ days in the last 2 years. Having dived into HRB I can see that with flat runners returning 121-365 days he is 3/4. He can get them fit. As simple as that. Hopefully he has got this one fit and the intention is for him to run his race. The fact he has booked the best flat jockey in Ireland? / and some would say Top 2-5 in the UK/Ireland, is some indication.

Pace- well that also caught the eye. He likes to make all and the race is there for him to do that I think, if he wants to. The odd other one has led, but has also been held up, and if Smullen is forceful early on, I think he can dictate.

The horse- well he has solid form on good to firm and over this distance. No problems there. Infact he is 2/2 over this exact distance on the turf. Class if fine, he is 1lb below his last winning mark and doesn’t have too many miles on the clock.

The only question is fitness- he returned here last season after a similar break for this yard and may well have needed it. He went off at 12s, so the market was some guide. Maybe he is a horse that just needs the run, regardless of the trainer’s ability to ready them. The market may well guide here- any drift and I will know my fate. I just wondered why you would bother booking the main man if he needs the run. Especially as K Leonard, who rode him the last twice, is on an outsider.

I won’t go mad, but if he is tuned up fully here, he should be out-running these odds.

**

That is all for today.

Good luck with any bets.

Josh

 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Sorry I put the Wilsterman v Palmeries bet out so late yesterday
    Pete

    peter walker 04/05/17 7:53 AM Reply


    • Nice Peter, thanks.

      lately 04/05/17 9:25 AM Reply


    • Nice one thanks

      Marcin Sudol 04/05/17 9:41 AM Reply


    • Nice tip, thanks.

      Diggs 04/05/17 9:41 AM Reply


    • Good shout Peter.. Thanks.
      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 04/05/17 11:14 AM Reply


  • 2.00 Redcar, looks like basement stuff. I am always wary of 2yos with names like Our Little Pony, if they are called little or tiny they usually are so despite breeding and stable would not be fancying this.
    I saw Tie Em Up Tel on his first run when he was unsteerable, he was entered at Bath a couple of weeks ago and did not go. My notes said strong back end and worth another go on a straight course, he might be a bit of value as a fun bet.
    Hugh

    alpha2 04/05/17 8:57 AM Reply


    • Our little Pony win or lose is the wrong price.

      April foal and as Hugh says must be called little pony for a reason.
      Fahey is the Juvenile trainer in form hence the price
      but straight into a seller shows the horses ability and while she may win by default
      because the others prove to be totally useless
      prices around 11/8 don’t appeal.

      I have a little question every time I am thinking of having a decent bet at a fairly short price.
      does it pass the last grand test?

      if you were having a terrible time and have lost heavily and then had time
      to calm down.

      When you have calmed down you decide to have your last £1000 on one short priced horse.

      would the bet you are considering be that £1000?

      so would you consider having your last £1000 on My little Pony
      I think it is highly unlikely(unless Richard Fahey himself had told you in confidence that it was a certainty)
      so if you are not prepared to have your last £1000 on why would you consider it a bet?

      The 3.30 at Redcar is a 7f claimer and I am surprised that Manatee Bay is Favourite
      he has a 0-6 record over 7f and at 7 years of age is unlikely to suddenly develop stamina and while he is joint top rated he hasn’t got that much in hand against 4 horses who all have proven winning form
      over the trip.

      LETS TWIST would be a confident selection but he has given trouble at the start
      a few times and can be slowly away.
      if starting on terms he is the likely winner but backing him is like backing horses like Labaik
      It can be all over before it starts

      CAPOLAVORO is rated 8 lbs behind MANATEE BAY but is fit has won twice over the distance
      and his 5lb claiming rider evens it up a bit, only 6 year old and put in to be claimed for £10,000
      so connections don’t want to ship him out at a cheap price but at 11/4 is priced to his chances

      Cabal is an interesting one as she has won over c/d and has the excellent David Allan in the saddle
      now 10 which will keep the price honest, 2nd last time in a Beverley handicap
      shows she is in good form.
      she will run her race so goes to the race with every chance
      she is the dependable horse in the race who may or may not be outrun by younger legs.

      Black Dave is the key to the race for me, if he goes from the front and makes it a true test (highly likely)then I think Manatee Bays chances will be very low
      Manatee is a 6f horse and if they go a slow pace he wins but Cabal, Black Dave and Capolavaro
      have all won over a mile or more so it wouldn’t be in any of their interests to go a slow gallop
      setting it up for the favourite.

      SUMMARY
      without Knowing if Lets Twist will consent to break on terms
      it is difficult to back a horse with maximum confidence
      but with three horses who have won over a mile or further in the race it would be stupid
      of all of them to go a slow gallop to suit the 6f horse MANATEE BAY
      so I expect at least one of them (Most likely Black Dave) to go for it
      if that is the case I just can’t see the favourite lasting home
      and he could be out with the washing

      with only 7 runners I am laying MANATEE BAY win, 2 places, 3 places and even 4 places
      he is 2/5 to be in the first 3 but I can see him as far back as 5th if falls apart in the last furlong chasing a strong gallop as he simply isn’t that far ahead in the ratings to handle the last furlong

      peter walker 04/05/17 10:52 AM Reply


      • Great summary Pete.

        tonymc 04/05/17 11:23 AM Reply


      • 2.40 at Lingfield the favourite Flowers on Venus looks rock solid
        as he is top rated, won its last two races
        handles course and distance ticks about every box tickable
        but will be odds on and no real leverage in the price.(pass the £1000 test?)(no way)

        The angle that interest me is the market without Flowers on Venus and
        the match bet between Varsovian and Quatrieme ami
        and in both cases QA is favoured over Varsovian but my money will be on Varsovian

        a six furling course and distance specialist Varsovian will almost surely run to form
        QA has shown no inclinations of getting todays distance(6 furlongs) to date,(0 from 5 and no places) so I think over this trip it will see Varsovian finish in front of QA despite being the worst horse of the two on ratings.
        Flowers on Venus won from the front last time so should there should be enough pace in the race
        to give the advantage to the 6f horse.

        in fast run races serial losers at a distance who have only ever won over shorter trips
        rarely last home.

        So the formula is fairly straight forward look for a horse
        who has solid winning form and is one of the highest rated in the race
        but is a multiple loser over today trip which is further than any of its previous winning form.

        once you have found a possible check that there are previous distance winners in the field
        who go from the front.
        A 5 furlong horse can win over a mile if they jog the first three furlongs but
        if they go a decent gallop early the 5f horse will be tailed off.
        it may seem that non stayers would have no chance as the track get stiffer
        but that sometime can be wrong because the stiffness of the track can sometimes
        make the jockeys worry about their horse lasting the trip and they go a crawl first few furlongs and
        give the advantage back to horse who are better at shorter distance

        If I was doubtful about a horse getting home at Beverley with its uphill finish I would be strongly against it if in the opposition there was a horse who had won over c/d making all

        peter walker 04/05/17 11:59 AM Reply


        • QA ran as expected and fell back in the final furlong to finish 3rd
          shame that Varsovian didn’t read the script and ran well below form and finished 4th

          peter walker 04/05/17 3:12 PM Reply


      • I think my message was heeded as MANATREE BAY was beaten out of sight
        and drifted to a massive price by the off
        was 2/5 to be placed first 3 on my first message but was odds against come
        post time

        Sorry about VARSOVIAN.
        QA ran 3rd but still beat the solid horse which was a shame

        peter walker 04/05/17 3:41 PM Reply


    • 3 minutes before the race and our Little Pony is 2/1 to lay
      so if you had laid it early at 2.4 you could have assured an easy profit

      PETER WALKER 04/05/17 1:57 PM Reply


  • Does anyone know where I can get the latest handicap mark for destinys gold please

    thomasson67 04/05/17 5:10 PM Reply


    • Still 112 isn’ it? Do they put horses up that fell/BD etc LTO- certainly too early for capper to say he would have won. Be surprised if he went up.

      Mark hasn’t be updated on BHA site… http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/horses/horse/#!/2172773

      Josh

      Josh 04/05/17 5:26 PM Reply


    • According to the racing post website it is still 112 over hurdles (118 over fences) although he only ran on the 1st so if he does go up surely it would be on Monday. They do put horses up for falling although they don’t like putting them up too much since they want to give them a chance to win. Something Phil Smith mentioned at the Cheltenham Preview evening when talking about Might Bite who went up 4lbs for falling at Kempton although he thought he was a 160 horse so would have put him up 12lbs if it wasn’t for the fall. What A Good Night went up 7lbs for falling in 2015 and still chinned my pick NTO 🙁 . My personal view is anything which goes up for falling is still likely well treated assuming there are no mental scars.

      nickmazur 04/05/17 5:49 PM Reply


      • Yep- but he was coming from behind- not as like he was a fence clear, or a few lengths in front. I have no idea how the capper could deem he was going to win/ahead of his mark, at that point in the race – still a few horses in front of him. Yep we shall see on Monday, won’t have been re-assessed yet, good point.

        Josh 04/05/17 5:52 PM Reply


        • You’re probably right would be a bit harsh but we will see Monday. (was just commenting on the “Do they” part of the post)

          nickmazur 04/05/17 5:57 PM Reply


          • yep it was a good point, my initial reaction was that they don’t – but as you point out, they clearly do! Definite question for ‘ask the handicapper’ if he gets raised. But yep he won’t be missed in the market next time.

            Josh 04/05/17 6:06 PM Reply


  • Can you keep me informed on Monday lads

    thomasson67 04/05/17 6:06 PM Reply


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