Members Daily Post: 01/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

JUMPS

Warwick 

3.15 –

Rapanui (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 20/1 UP

Ultimate Dream (all hncps + hncp hurdle+ micro class + going + age) 11/2 UP

Anythingmayhappen (all hncps + micro class + going + age) H3 11/2 UP

Psychocandy (hncp hurdle) 7/1 UP

4.25 –

Spiritual Man (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro class + going +age) 15/2  UP

Jam Session (hncp hurdle) H3 5/1 UP

5.00 –

Moonlight Flyer (all hncps) 20/1 UP

Yeats Baby (hncp hurdle) 10/1 2nd 5/1

Ducloyne Lady (hncp hurdle) 16/1 UP

 

Kempton 

4.05 – A Boy Named Suzi (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 13/2 UP

4.40- Minella Rebellion (all hncps+ hncp hurdle+hncp hurdle debut) 7/2UP

5.15 –

Artifice Sivola (all hncps) 13/2 2nd

Parsnip Pete (micro class) 13/2 PU

 

Bonus (late addition 11.25am)

2.40 War- Cobra De Mai H1 WON 3/1>2/1

 

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FLAT 

Beverley 

1.55 – Time Trail (1st 2 YO) 10/1 WON 12/1

3.40 – All You (4yo+, + micro TJC) 11/1 UP

4.15 –

Tin Pan Alley (all hncps) 20/1 UP

Sunglider (4yo+, + TJC, + 90 days) 6/1 WON 

4.50-

Jacbequick (4yo+) 11/2 UP

Billy Roberts (4yo+, + micro going) 14 G1 11/4 UP

Mon Beau Visage (4yo+) H3 9/1 UP

 

Windsor 

2.35 –

King Of Spin (all hncps) 6/1 WON 7/1

Artscape (4yo+) 8/1 UP

4.20-

Get Back In Paris (all hncps) H1 7/2 UP

Cape Banjo (micro age) H3 4/1 UP

4.55 – Lime And Lemon (4yo+) H3, G1 14,30 9/4  UP

 

Bath 

none.

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Nothing to add today, no ‘bet of the day test etc’- mainly as it’s a Bank Holiday and I haven’t got time to look in any depth.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE: There will be no speed ratings via geegeez for any JUMPS fixtures from May through to end of August. That poses a conundrum for the Summer Jumps- I am going to email Dr Peter May and see if that is just geegeez related- as if he does produce them I will just buy them direct over the summer. Or I will have a look at Inform Speed ratings or something else I can try out. The next jumps fixtures are not until Thursday so with any luck I can find a solution by then.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Dr Newland – FTO Switchers in Handicaps (where the runners last race was a h,cap)

    All NH 13/43 30.23% 51.13% Place

    Hcp Hurdle 8/26 30.77%

    Hcp Chase 3/14 21.43%

    I would say .. Dr Newland verses the run of the mill summer jumps yard ….. No contest imo .. His runners will certainly be getting my attention

    Destinys Gold W4.25 5/1 SBet …. to start

    joners 01/05/17 10:28 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Tony- just to clarify, is that first start for the yard I assume? He can certainly improve them/bring exposed horses back to life with a change in routine etc. GL Josh

      Josh 01/05/17 10:33 AM Reply


    • Bad Luck re Destiny’s G. If it had a different jockey it would have won. DJ rides everything the same way, leaves too much to do and/or tries to win cosey all the time. The only time ive seen him pushing 1 out was Might Bite at kempton on boxing day!

      jamesm 01/05/17 4:38 PM Reply


      • Yea really unlucky and I may have had a go at him. He was to blame for Vyta but in fairness ever since I hammered him for his rides on Fox Appeal he appeared to be riding out of his skin- He was pushing and shoving at Vyta a long way out but apparently thought he was riding to the second winning post and mis judged the distance – not sure if that is true but a shame he didn’t start his challenge from closer to the pace- they went no pace and he would have been able to hold a position much closer…
        But on this occasion not sure he is to blame too much- he got there comfortably to my eye and wasn’t having to pick up much speed to close in – looked like he jumped ok but landing gear didn’t come down quick enough- not sure how much to blame him- and possibly riding to instructions- fine balance between winning cosily and winning by too much/ruining his mark – he was winning that for sure, plenty in hand.

        Josh 01/05/17 4:44 PM Reply


  • Morning
    My qualifiers for today.

    JUMPS
    Warwick
    3.15 – Ultimate Dream 17% 5/1+ Price taken 13/2 (stanjames)

    Kempton
    5.15 – Artifice Sivola 31% 2/1+ Price taken 13/2 (Paddypower)

    FLAT
    Windsor
    4.20- Cape Banjo H3, 50% 6/5+ Price taken 4/1 (Skybet)

    Good Luck

    Gavin 01/05/17 10:34 AM Reply


    • Hi Gavin,
      Thanks for these thoughts… I am intrigued as to how you judge something as ‘value’ and align the % chance etc… is it a rather complicated method or not? You may well have explained before and sorry if so but I am always intrigued as to how others think about the game.
      Josh

      Josh 01/05/17 10:39 AM Reply


      • Hey Josh,

        Not really a complicated method, I rate each horse over a number of factors ie Form, Distance, Ground, Course, Jockey, Trainer etc… I then total up all the combined rating and then divide the horse’s rating which gives me a percent chance of winning the race according my rating, I then use so simple math again to create my odds line. I then cross match these with a service I’m testing, which pretty much does what I do manually. If I am happy with my percent chance of winning and odds, then I check the bookie odds to see if there is value against my odds lines.

        Gavin 01/05/17 11:16 AM Reply


  • Josh
    Just been informed Blessed to Empress is running tomorrow 6.10 Chelmsford.
    The horse we all nearly bought into.
    Any info on it?

    Mike

    mickeydee 01/05/17 10:44 AM Reply


    • I will pass it on when I do… I actually did end up buying a share myself!

      Will wait to see what I receive etc and it will be a bonus section part of these members’ pages, as will anything else I can get from the trainer with any luck.

      From what we know already- she is very forward, and has been happy leading work at home. They think she has a bit of pace and has been to the track for a test experience etc. I think she will be there to run her race if good enough and I am hoping, given how they have trained her, they may make all. But it is first run and making sure they have a positive experience is important for the future also.

      I can only assume Amy thinks the surface will be fine etc.

      Will let you know more when I have it.
      Josh

      Josh 01/05/17 10:53 AM Reply


  • hi josh
    regarding speed figure problem, TOPSPEED in racing post are both good and free

    pendrem 01/05/17 11:07 AM Reply


    • Hi Malc,
      Yep, Peter has confirmed there are no speed ratings over the summer so will get the thinking cap on- with any RP related ones it is just whether they suck all the value out/whether they are considered in odds etc. But, that is always an option- I will have a think.
      Josh

      Josh 01/05/17 11:17 AM Reply


  • Great start to May Josh,first bet hits the net,and great price 12/1

    gearoid180468 01/05/17 2:04 PM Reply


  • Having a great day so far
    Miss Power 7/1 3.20 Naas E.Lynam 5/6f
    Twizzel 9/1-4/1 K Burke 3yo(3-6) 3.05 Bev
    Roc D’Apsis 11/2-7/2 3.30 Kempton T.george(Same Dist)

    gearoid180468 01/05/17 3:58 PM Reply


    • Good day indeed Gerry, + the 12/1 winner… are they all from previous angles discussed on these pages over the months/years? I recognise the George one…

      Josh 01/05/17 4:02 PM Reply


  • The Karl Burke one is one I found last night Josh,He is a trainer i like to keep an eye on,up and coming too,always watch out for his 2yo at northern tracks.He was 3-6 with 3yo at beverley,not sure if Handicaps though.The Lynam one may be from last years Irish Bonus Pack,not sure if i have details right,was it 5 and 6f furlong handicaps,Sunglider just gone in so things getting better

    gearoid180468 01/05/17 4:20 PM Reply


  • with my back all policy with a staking plan my results are always going to be a bit different and after a great start when i was up 301pts at highest had a terrible run (suffering a lot on prices didn’t help) but all coming good again and getting 18.5 on Time Trail helps, back up to +248pts.

    martin whittle 01/05/17 6:29 PM Reply


    • Good to hear Martin- a no odds cap approach is always going to be more up and down than others, and esp when you are backing them all to some degree with your own approach – but, for 2017 to date, that isn;t a bad profit figure 🙂

      Josh 01/05/17 6:39 PM Reply


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