Members Daily Post: 30/04/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Flat

Salisbury 

3.00 – Di Fede (1st 2yo) 14/1

4.30 – Glaring (micro going) G3 22/1

 

Thirsk 

2.15 – Saxon Gold (4yo+) 20/1

4.15 –

King of Paradise (4yo+) 14,30 16/1

Steccando (micro age) 14 25/1

Whitecliff Park (micro runs this season +going) G3 11/2

4.45-

Casterbridge (4yo+)  14,30 18/1

Pomme De Terre (micro TJC) 18/1

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

nothing today.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Good to see a nice few flat winners on Saturday, including one at 22s>8s and one for the #1 strategy at 10s>17/2. Hopefully you backed one or more of them. As I ‘ve said before, the Jumps/Summer jumps is proven really, as is the ratings approach- the flat is an unknown to a point and in a few weeks we should have a clearer idea on the best systematic approach. The stats are finding winners though,that is always a good start. I see no reason why the #1 strategy won’t work as well on the flat.

NOTE: For any TTP users, JJ Davies is the name down in the guide under Thirsk, 4yo+. That is how he is in HorseRaceBase but is down as ‘John Davies’ everywhere else it seems, as per the 2.15 and Saxon Gold.

 

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That is all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Morning all

    No qualifiers for me today.

    I’ll put up my results for past 9 days later on, it’s only small sample but it is the end of the month 🙂

    Gavin 30/04/17 10:16 AM Reply


  • My results so far

    21th-22th April backing any horse which I thought was value at any percent chance of winning saw 20 bets 0 wins, -20 points down.

    So looking at that which I know was only two days, I thought there were going to be too many bets and variance was just going to have too bigger swings for me. For a smoother ride I decided to only back which I thought had a 15 percent or higher chance of winning and were value to what my odds line is for that race. 23th-30th April 28 bets with 6 wins, s/r 21% for 14.42 points profit to early price taken /BOG. ISP 2.62 points profit and BFSP 7.51 points profit after commission.

    Very early days but good signs so far.

    Gavin 30/04/17 5:15 PM Reply


    • 14 points is good and good luck. I will be interested on how you go with a decent sample, say 6 months.

      martin colwell 30/04/17 10:07 PM Reply


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