Free Daily Post: 29/04/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

3.35 Sandown

Vyta Du Roc – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (WH/PP/BetfS) 9/1 (general)

Present Man – 1 point win – 12/1 (general)

 

The final hurrah of the main winter jumps season and in truth bar one mad month it hasn’t been the best on the ‘tipping’ front, but it has been profitable and when time allows I will update results etc. Winning 90 odd points in 4 weeks certainly helped and with any luck I can finish on a high here….

Vyta Du Roc – he is a classy horse, a Grade 1 and Grade 2 winner who has two decent staying runs to his name in the Hennessy and last year’s Scottish National. I keep getting drawn to those and with his tumbling mark I just thought he looked a bit more interesting than most in here. He is 6lb lower than his 9 length Hennessy defeat and that handicap chase form is often some of the best all season. Clearly if he repeats his last two runs then that is 1.5 points more I will be lending back to the bookies. I do wonder if he struggled with 11-12 on his back the last day and in any case he looks like a thorough stayer so 3m around Kempton may not have suited. The flat boys indicated there was plenty of cut in the ground yesterday so conditions should be fine. He usually travels up there, he isn’t a hold up sort, and Henderson couldn’t be in better form. You would like to think they pencilled this in as a target some time ago and he will come here bouncing. We shall see, but at a double figure price he caught the eye and this test could really suit. He must be very well handicapped now but has to go and prove it.

Present Man- I like the fact that he should be up there, right on the pace, and with any luck may well try and lead all the way. He is a solid jumper when in front and he is just in superb form. There should be more to come from him in handicaps. It is all about him being in front, I have never really liked him being surrounded by horses but if he can get into a rhythm he could get plenty of these in trouble. There is a stamina niggle but it is an unknown at again Nicholls is in fine form- it would be fitting end to the trainer’s championship for these two horses to be fighting it out. I thought there was enough there at 12s, which looked a shade generous.

I wasn’t overly enthusiastic to back anything else. 9/2 is ok for Doing Fine but it makes his 7/2 LTO look a steal- another one at the top end I mis-judged, that was a very good price as it turne out. But, this is some step up in quality here and again he will be held up right out the back if adopting usual tactics. I wonder if he will be good enough here. 9/2 feels ok, but probably about right. We know he stays and is in form, and that is more than can be said for plenty in here. He also handles the track. I do wonder if he is good enough and at 9/2 I will leave. The other two from Mulholland just look out of sorts a bit and have a few questions to answer now for me. They both have the ability to take this at their best but again at single figure prices I couldn’t rev myself up to back them. I think Just A Par will get out-paced here in this smaller field on this ground- and the leaders won’t really come back. But he stays, and will keep going.

BenBens may be the most interesting outsider but he is 12 and was doing all his best work late LTO, having got out-paced. He can’t afford to do that here as the fences may then get in the way when needing to close. But if he repeats that big effort only a few days ago he may surprise. Sugar Baron can get back in his races and this is a test for one so inexperienced. Again at single figures, after his UR LTO, I wasn’t jumping to back him today.

I suppose Rock The Kasbah is interesting also, given he is unexposed and has some decent novice form. The ground is a niggle, but only that, as is the big field/possible lack of experience. You could say the same about Present Man but I am hoping he is out the front by himself. I am not sure that Chepstow run screamed extreme stayer but I could be wrong.

I can’t really have the rest for one reason or another.

It is one of those end of season chases. Something has to win it and these two should go well for a time. I am bullish enough about Hendos, I am looking forward to seeing what he can do here. IF he repeats that Hennessy run, and stays on like he did in both that and at Ayr, I think he is the one to beat.It should be a good race to watch.

Good luck with any fancies.

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Saturday TJC (14/1<) 

2.25 Sand- Menorah

3.35 Sand- Rock The Kasbah

4.45 Sand- Brother Ted

 

**

That is all for today.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Two for Tizzard/Brennan chase combination

    3.35 Theatre Guide
    4.45 Royal Vacation

    Theatre Guide should run his race and might even nick a place,BV paying 4 places,but its Royal Vacation that is the one i think is overpriced at 12-11/1.
    The comments were he was lucky to win a Grade 1 race when Might Bite fell at kempton but he was clear of the remainder,and then slammed the field at cheltenham,Tizzard couldn’t buy a winner at the Cheltenham Festival but is bang in form now.The 12/1 with BV is good value

    gearoid180468 29/04/17 7:48 AM Reply


  • Date & Title: 29th April Leicester 5f Novice
    4.25 Never Back Down
    3.75 Haddaf
    3.5 Dragon’s Tail
    3.25 Jedi Master
    2.75 Plundered
    2 Colorado Dream
    1 Bahuta Acha
    Preview – Not much to say here, Never Back Down looked a typical Palmer early season small speedball at Newmarket and it will probably take an 85 plus horse to beat him. Haddaf is the first debutant by Dawn Approach so interesting to see how he looks.

    Prior race notes
    Jedi Master – Small, hard to see him improving enough to win an open maiden. 59

    Date & Title: 29th April Ripon 5f Novice Auction
    4.25 Faraday’s Spark
    3.25 Sandytown, Magnus
    3 Mr Wagyu, Rocket Man Dan, Black Orange, Kikini Bamalaam
    2.75 Kyleque, Capla Dancer
    2.25 Revenge
    2 Aristodemus

    Preview – I nominated Rocket Man Dan for Div 1 of The Brocklesby and he behaved like a hooligan getting in a battle for the lead and wasting all his energy early. The horse that finished alongside him that day Dragon’s Teeth has subsequently run well and Almane and Last Page who also ran in that race have won and been second in ordinary races. Black Orange is physically limited.
    Capla Dancer won at Ripon, a small filly who was in the right place and stuck on well in a good time and is a significant danger, she went off 66/1 that day which suggests that the stable did not rate her very highly but she fought very hard for the win and this is a lower grade where she carries 3lbs less.
    I shall be backing Rocket Man Dan for the win with a forecast Capla Dancer RMDan as a saver.

    Prior race notes
    Black Orange – Bigger and stronger unit than the winner, not as neatly made and a notably poor walker. I would put this defeat down to that more than preparation issues. That proximity on debut to Hellovaqueen now makes more sense and the 2nd div of the Brocklesby may be poor. As the only one with experience he should have done better. 62

    Date & Title: 29th April Doncaster 5f Mdn
    4.25 Dahik, Koditime, Darkanna
    3.75 Central City, DontgiveuponBob, June Dog, Levante Player
    3 Jellmood
    2.75 Angel Force
    2.5 Shay C
    2.25 Funkadelic,
    1.5 The Golden Cue
    .75 Lord Of The Glen
    Preview – Can’t be of much help here, the algo scores above are probably the best guide. Dahik from Varian is interesting. His horses looked in great nick at Sandown yesterday. The same can be said for Clive Cox (Koditime). Darkanna cost 200k and Richard Fahey’s stable is doing its usual 2yo early season performance.
    I am also very fearful of the Palmer horse Central City, as yet Josephine Gordon still has to prove that she is as good on 2yos as older horses, she is currently only 4/78, 5% on 2yos. My instinct is that she has just not been put on many good ones as she made her way through the apprentice ranks.
    Sean Levey (June Dog) seems to have dropped down the pecking order a little from last year at the Hannon stable but is perfectly capable.
    Hugh

    alpha2 29/04/17 9:41 AM Reply


    • Central City is working well and Dahik goes nicely, I’m told.

      chrisrees 29/04/17 10:31 AM Reply


    • Rocket Man Dan unfortunately behaved like a hooligan again and also twice suffered badly when trying to make his move to challenge. No reason to revise upward my estimate of Black Orange. Tough little character limited by physique. I suppose rocket Man Dan if he settles sometime may be 66ish.

      At Leicester Never Back Down won with a struggle from a very tubby looking Haddaf with Dragon’s Tail in third as per the algo.

      The Doncaster race had a few ok ones. The winner Kodiline very fit but very small. Algo scored well here as well.

      Pictures to follow
      Hugh

      alpha2 30/04/17 8:32 AM Reply


  • Cracking season’s finale at Sandown and am a little gutted I am not going since last year it was a great day out even if Mullins slightly spoilt it by taking his horses out when he couldn’t win. Several of these have been backed so up to you whether you want to still back them however thought I’d mention what I am on.

    The most interesting race for me is the 16:45 at Sandown filled with horses which will be winning races however I think you will need a horse with at least half a stone in hand to win this and there are two which look the best well treated. Poker School has correctly been kept away from Cheltenham and Aintree since he needs to go right handed. He had a lovely prep since his win at Kempton where he beat the likes of Two Taffs, San Benedeto and Gold Present who have franked the form this spring. Even off 10lbs higher I think there is more to come. His record on good/soft or better going right handed is 5/7, 6p with the only non-place being a fall. The other one I wanted on my side was Kilcrea Vale who wasn’t disgraced in the JLT and just about everything in that race that has ran since has been winning or thereabouts in Graded races. He could be extremely well in off a mark of 139 on handicap chase debut. I also want a small bet on Josses Hill in the 14:25 who is not a Grade 1 animal but is 112 in Grade 2s and with doubts about the whole field was a shade of value at 9/2.

    Moving on to Doncaster I liked the look on Invermere in the 19:35. The favourite looked one that needed taking on given all her form was on all-weather. (sadly the market seems to have agreed with me). She returns to the track and distance where she was a good 2nd in a competitively looking race and regains the services of Paul Hanagan. Both jockey and Fahey have been in blistering form this season. She is drawn right next to the pace and I expect her to do well. Earlier in the card I thought Chaplin Bay was overpriced in the 16:50 for the equally red hot Ruth Carr yard. He won a shade more cosily than the winning distance suggests and is only up 3lbs for that. Last year he won on his 2nd start so I am hoping he will improve for the run. He isn’t far from the main pace angle and should get a nice tow into the race. Sticking with Ruth Carr I thought Pipers Note was the most likely winner of the 15:20 at Ripon. The trainer has done wonders with the horses she has picked up including Sovereign Debt winning again yesterday. This horse ran very well since joining the yard and his 3rd in the Listed Cammidge was all the more eye-catching considering the ground would have been slower than ideal. He returns to his favourite moshpit at Ripon where he is 5/8, 6p in handicaps on good ground or better and the fast ground should also help (3/7, 4p on good/firm) . Drawn perfectly he should get a lovely tow into the race from Red Pike and kick on from there.

    nickmazur 29/04/17 10:42 AM Reply


  • I like Just A Par for Mr Nicholls, 3.35 SP. Likes this race obviously and his trainer is having a last gasp tilt at the trainers title.

    Paul Nicholls also has Romain De Senam, 4.45 SP.

    Both reasonable prices.

    martin colwell 29/04/17 10:44 AM Reply


  • I’m on Whats Happening 3.35 Sandown. I think this trip will be just perfect and he likes good ground.

    Marcin Sudol 29/04/17 11:54 AM Reply


  • I think you deserved better there mate. UL.

    nickmazur 29/04/17 3:48 PM Reply


    • Painful. Bloody horse takes an age to wind up. In hindsight you ride him a tad closer to pace but there we go. That’s how it goes. Thankfully flat stats ensured it was an ok day!

      Josh 29/04/17 5:10 PM Reply


  • Anything for Wolverhampton 2nite lads

    Rus 29/04/17 6:00 PM Reply


  • If only i did a lucky 15 for haydock id be done for season,but 3 from 4 is great start for TD followers

    gearoid180468 29/04/17 7:38 PM Reply


    • lol…I was thinking the same G……If only….

      Had 5 winners in all with some blanks and places… still a very good day…Cheers Gearoid.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 29/04/17 9:11 PM Reply


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