Members Daily Post: 28/04/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps

Huntingdon

5.45 –

Conteur D’Histoire (all hncps) H3 5/1

Royal Supremo (all hncps + micro 90 days) 7/1

6.50 – Bronco Billy (all hncps) H3, G3 7/2

7.25 –

Not Never (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro age) 7/4

Intifadah (micro class) H3 6/1

 

Chepstow

5.20 – Bobble Boru (all hncps) H1, G3 7/1

5.55 – Fingerontheswitch (all hncps) H1, G3 9/2

6.30 – Act Four (all hncps) H1, G3 3/1

7.35 – Phangio (all hncps) H3, G3 7/4

 

Bonus

4.55 Punch – Elusive Ivy – 7/1

 

Summer Jumps

Perth

2.35 –

Mystifiable (all hncps) 10/1

Solway Dandy (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro distance) 20/1

5.25 – (morning addition…)

Anywaythewindblows (NHF) 11/2

Ragged Wood (NHF) 16/1

 

Bonus

3.10 – Chidswell-  H1, G3 9/2

 

Flat

Sandown

None.

Doncaster

2.10 – African Blessing (4yo+) G1 6/1

5.05 – Shesthedream (4yo+) 9/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day… (test, 7/39, +31 points)

 

5.45 Hunt – Royal Supremo – 1 point win – 7/1 (Bet365/BV/WH) 3rd 5/1 *

Ah well that looked so good all the way until about 2 out where he then just plugged on- fitness wouldn’t have been an issue so can only think he didn’t quite see that out as well as the other two. Maybe he travelled a bit too powerfully for the most part, I don’t know. I won’t go looking for excuses there, decent enough run just not good enough. He travelled like a horse with more to come, maybe a drop down is needed after all. 

 

This one ticks plenty of boxes- making handicap hurdle debut (at a track the trainer seems to target with such types) and taking a big step up in trip, which given he is related to a Grand National winner may help. He has actually achieved a fair bit in NHF/Novice hurdles already – that Warwick bumper second has plenty of depth to it and has thrown up plenty of winners. He then won a couple of races at the back end of last year. Kim Bailey’s string had issues before Christmas- I think they had an illness or something, so I think his last two runs can be ignored. I don’t think his string was right. They all seem to be fine now and they are in fine form, 3/19,10 places in the last 14 days. This mark should be within range and the trip should bring out more. Fitness shouldn’t be a problem and they may have been waiting for the better ground. He has a type of profile you can be fairly bullish about I think. Clearly Jonjo’s will probably now do me but I like this one’s profile much more, and he is a couple of points bigger. He really could be anything here. As with all types like this you would like to see some market support.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

Punchestown.. ‘Qualifiers’…

4.20-

Balko Des Flos (chelt LTO -up dist/0 hncp c runs)

Diamond King (chelt LTO – PU,same dist, GE )

Last Goodbye (chelt LTO- Up dist)

Le Prezien (chelt LTO – Up dist, JP Chelt LTO)

Arbre De Vie (Mullins race type)

Discosimo (Mullins race type, hncp c debut, Townend- not C1/2 LTO a slight neg)

Woodland Opera (JH, ticks a few)

Bright Tomorrow (JH)

4.55-

Rock On The Moor (JH, distance, hncp chase debut)

Girly Girl (JH, distance + hncp debut, 15 days,non hncp LTO)

Keppols Queen (JH,a few, as above)

Definite Ruby (GE ‘micro’)

Elusive Ivy (trainers all)

5.30 –

My Tent Or Yours (JP – Chelt)

Brain Power (Hendo Micro) (Late addition, as of 15.40)

6.05 – Outspoken (JP Novice races)

7.10- Chirico Vallis (JP Novice races)

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That is all for this post.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • whoops,
    P 5.25 Anywaythewindblows
    Ragged Wood (nhf)

    I’m sure you’ll have them written down but got sidetracked with the bonus.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 27/04/17 6:13 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mike, no idea what went on there, I may have just missed the entire race. 🙂 Will have to give you a rebate at this rate!

      Josh 28/04/17 7:38 AM Reply


  • Anywaythewindblows will be Brian Hardings last ride,maybe Nicky will have readied one to send him away on a winner

    gearoid180468 27/04/17 6:23 PM Reply


  • I always try to have a look through the stats packs for members before racing. At Chelmsford the Best Fox combo was highlighted. I see that they had one selection, Pendo in the 8.15, and it won at 20/1.

    I also like to keep an eye on Bin Suroor runners on the all weather. He had two from two at Chelmsford, only 11/10 and 3/1 though.

    Martin Colwell 27/04/17 9:06 PM Reply


  • Bet 365 opened up Anywaythewindblows at 14/1,30 seconds later was cut 11/1,still its best priced at 6/1 now,hard to know with the early prices whether price was driven down by a punt,or people just latching onto fact that its Hardings last ride,its rare though to have the Hollywood ending.

    gearoid180468 28/04/17 8:13 AM Reply


  • Good morning all

    What a beautiful day it is here in Huddersfield, hope it’s cracking the flags where you are today 🙂 It’s days like this when it would be rude not to have the afternoon off and being a Friday is a nice Brucie bonus haha 😀

    My qualifiers for today

    Jumps
    Huntingdon
    6.50 – Bronco Billy H3, G3, 21% 7/2+ Price taken 4/1

    Chepstow
    5.20 – Bobble Boru H1, G3 20% 4/1+ Price taken 13/2
    5.55 – Fingerontheswitch H1, G3 35% 11/8+ Price taken 9/2
    6.30 – Act Four H1, G3 39% 6/5+ Price taken 10/3

    Summer Jumps
    Perth
    2.35 – Solway Dandy 16% 11/2+ price taken 20/1

    Good luck all

    Gavin 28/04/17 9:28 AM Reply


  • Just a random note here really. Below are my comments from his 2yo days for Muntazah (2.20 Sandown) when he won at Leicester.
    Muntazah – Absolutely looks the part and unfortunate not to have won fto. Big and strong dominated the paddock in every sense. Probably not a lot behind him but confirmed previous impression despite slow time. 93++
    Last year I thought he would win the Dante but received a ride of consummate muppetry from Bud Flanagan and ended up missing the break and baulked twice as Bud sought all the closed alleyways on the wide open space of the Knavesmire. It was after this ride I became convinced he would get the sack.
    Today Jim Crowley assumes the position. Now he seems to be an ‘unlucky’ horse and Owen Burrows is only 9% fto after a break, so hardly a safe bet today. I just hope my infatuation with him is not misplaced. I thought he had Group 1 potential as clearly so did Hamdan if he was put in the Dante last year.
    I shall post a photo with my review next week.
    Hugh

    alpha2 28/04/17 12:15 PM Reply


    • I hope we don’t all end up ‘Underneath The Arches’.

      chrisrees 28/04/17 1:17 PM Reply


    • Well Muntazah looked magnificent. He is a superb specimen, not quite as big as Royal Artillery who looks like he should be pulling artillery but an impressive individual nevertheless.

      I learnt from his groom that his stable name is Horace which endeared me to him further.

      The problem today was that he was still fat and if anything looked the least fit in the line up. They did not seem to go much of a pace (race slow by 8 secs) so he was able to lie up easily until the sprint for home. Despite this he stuck on welland although given 2 0r 3 reminders they looked pretty gentle to me.

      It will be very interesting to see where he goes next. Jim Crowley appeared to get on well with him and the candle of hope though flickering remains alight. All told however it looked a pretty mediocre race, course over watered, no idea if this was a help or a hindrance to Horace.

      In recent years according to Gavin of Festival Trends Route 66 this has been a good prep race for Ascot. I don’t really think there was an Al Kazeem in this bunch unless it was Horace. Although Ulysses won well enough, there is not a lot of substance to him.
      Hugh

      alpha2 28/04/17 6:51 PM Reply


  • Oooh a No. 1 strategy flat winner at least he was just about 10/1 on the machine last night. Hopefully they will start rolling in.

    nickmazur 28/04/17 3:26 PM Reply


    • Yep nice to see him win, did it well- technically won’t qualify on how I take morning odds, but that is an example of where you may well end up doing even better if you can get 10/1+ ‘when you look’. All stats have been finding enough winners and ticking over ok I think, but yep don’t think we have had a #1 strat yet, and a few losers. As I said, with the flat, we will know much more in the next month or two. No concerns with the jumps.

      Josh 28/04/17 3:33 PM Reply


      • Yeah I know. I have noticed the winners are coming in so perhaps it’s a case of looking them differently than the jumps from an odds cap POV. I am sure you’ll figure it out. Makes up for the 12/1-7/2 non-qualifier at Catterick which got done by a neck earlier this week though so early approach works both ways. Interestingly have you ever taken a look and compared then when it came to field size or difficult to figure out? (just thinking of a reason why the bigger priced ones not performing as well on the flat)

        nickmazur 28/04/17 3:39 PM Reply


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