Free Daily Post: 27/04/17 (complete)

A decent enough day yesterday across the blog with a 7/1 winner for ‘bet of the day’ and and 18/1 winner from my Punchestown notes,as well as a decent second at 25s.

Thursday looks a bit quieter on here…

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers

3.35 Perth – Smoking Jacket

Alan King (16/1<)

5.25 Chelm – Mccools Gold

 

**

Nothing much else today, I have repeated some notes below for Beverley- I had a quick flick through the card on request from a member who is going to the track. Be warned- my record when I have a ‘quick glance’ is questionable but we shall see how some of these go…

BEVERLEY 

1.40- Lucky Beggar (fit,well drawn,front runs/on pace,could get rail) and Lydia’s Place (again can be up there but maybe could have run better LTO) look the most interesting to me. Cue another one from TTP bolting up! Spirit of Wedza is high drawn and yet to prove 5f is what he wants,but a fair bit of pace on and if there is a collapse maybe something just off it swoops past)

2.10- looks like the Johnston horse is the one to beat- fit, has experience, and Fanning will try and make all- short price- could do some muggy forecasts maybe- and given how Fahey’s 2yos are going,put his in it- jockey bookings suggest shazzab is the one- he may even win.

2.45 – Arc Royal- he stool out to me with my 60 second glance- bit of experience, fit,appreciate step up in trip and they may try and make all with him- Johnton’s may be up there but may need the run and he doesn’t have to lead- should give backers a run for their money I think.

3.15 – Dapper Man 33s- an at the track fun EW punt – I just liked the pace angle as I suspect they may try and make all again- he faded over 8f LTO- drop to 7f here and has now had a run. It could be he just isn’t very good but could get the heart racing until about 1f out, then who knows! They will probably hold him up now.

Suppose Geophony looks of interest also of those near the top end – had a run and drops in trip, Fanning may try and be handy with him also, given drop back. A race full of unexposed 3 year olds so who knows!

3.50 – covered in TTP, of those near top end of market ‘Bit of a Querke’ looks interesting – although th e number of placed efforts may start to be a concern, maybe he doesn’t fully go through with his effort but he is fit, will run on the pace/try make all, and the yard is in form.

**

That is all for today.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • I have posted list of south American clubs altitudes
    and it can be found on the 25/4/17 free posts would appreciate feedback
    as I am trying to develop a stronger game plan
    Pete

    peter walker 27/04/17 11:09 AM Reply


  • Fergal O Brien +61.93 all runners this season,I think we might have done a little bit better than that by being bit more selective and getting early prices

    gearoid180468 27/04/17 11:22 AM Reply


  • Hugh,
    What is your opinion on Emilia James?

    She showed very good early speed on debut, is a nice early foal
    and was only caught close home by a Fahey horse with Experience.

    Mark Johnstons juveniles haven’t been as ready FTO as last year
    so I expect improvement.
    we know she handles the course and distance and goes on quick ground
    at even money she seems to tick all the boxes for me.

    I am think of going in with a tidy bet but I thought I would run it by you first
    Thanks
    Pete

    PETER WALKER 27/04/17 11:45 AM Reply


    • As Baldrick would say I have come up with a cunning plan.

      The more I look at the 2.10 at Beverley the more it looks like Emilia will be away and gone
      in the first couple of furlongs and if she were to be beat it will only be one of the newcomers running her down close home.
      she led clear on debut and from the same stall should do so again.
      after 2 furlongs I expect to be in a clear lead

      so the plan is simple have £500 on at evens on betfair
      and as soon as the stalls open put in a bet to lay her at 1.50 For £600
      if she leads and holds on you win £200 but if she touches 1.50
      is matched and then gets caught close home you win £100

      ok if she misses the break and never touches 1.50 and gets beat you lose the £500
      but I am confident she will go a lot shorter in running than the current evens on betfair
      The reason you lay as the stall open is the simple fact that most tv feeds are a few seconds behind and
      in 5f races that can be vital.
      by the time you can get on if you watch it unfold it can be to late.

      I would be interested to know what price she is 25 seconds into the race(around the 3 furlongs from home marker)

      PETER WALKER 27/04/17 12:27 PM Reply


      • Peter, did your cunning plan work? She appeared to be up against a school of shrimps, other than the reluctant loader Foxy’s Spirit, from whjat I could make out.
        Hugh

        alpha2 27/04/17 2:21 PM Reply


        • yes nice when a plan comes to fruition
          had £500 on at 1.98 and laid off £600 at 1.49 and that was before the race even started!!

          after 2 furlongs she was 1.38 she has blinding early and her dam won the Hillary Needler
          over c/d although she hacked up here I did notice she came back a bit in the final furlong.

          Beverley is a stiff five and I think she is a 5f horse pure and simple

          PETER WALKER 27/04/17 2:42 PM Reply


          • Well done Peter, that worked out well. Never in doubt. Printing money 🙂

            Josh 27/04/17 3:02 PM Reply


          • was at track and Emilia James was more than impressive never in doubt the way she came up the hill i reckon she could be even better over 6f

            martin whittle 27/04/17 6:45 PM Reply


    • Hi Peter, Only just got in to post, car trouble! I agree with you could only oppose if something really stands out to the eye. It took a good performance to push those with experience as hard as she did last time.
      Hugh

      alpha2 27/04/17 1:17 PM Reply


      • To the eye it looked like she improved a lot for the run but the clock
        didn’t really back that up when she finished 2nd the winner ran 1m 3.24
        and she was beaten a length.Today on very similar ground she ran 1m3.41 so still

        .17 of a second slower than Almane ran when she beat Emelia last time.

        Almane v Emelia if they raced next week would be interesting
        on a 60 second plus course on standard times I would be with Almane
        on a 58 second track would be with Emelia

        on a fast track with a turn like Catterick would really fancy Emeila
        on a stiff up finish ie Pontyfract/Carlisle would bet the other way.

        in better class races would be on Almane in a match against Emelia as I think if Emelia
        had to duel for the lead she will be vulnerable while Almane doesn’t need to be up there early

        for instant if they both made royal ascot and they were even money in a match race I would be with
        Almane although neither would win

        I have a gut feeling that if they met tomorrow EMELIA would be a short priced favourite to beat ALMANE
        but I think on the right course it would be a 50/50 play

        peter walker 27/04/17 3:19 PM Reply


        • I was at Bev both days Peter/Hugh. I’d take Almane over Emelia any day in the future bar a very quick 5. Almane still green/learning, Emelia very forward/professional from day one. Regards.

          Adam 29/04/17 7:23 PM Reply


  • Apparently i hear that Dont Touch It is unbeatable at Punchy this afternoon! I got on at 9/2.

    I also like at a price King of Brega, 3.40 Pu.

    Good luck today.

    martin colwell 27/04/17 1:10 PM Reply


  • Date & Title: 27th April Beverley 5f Fillies Novice Auction
    4.25 Royal Crown, Shazzab
    3.75 Suanas
    3.25 Emilia James, Hypnotic Dancer, Lady Lintera
    3 Miss Mar Beach
    2.75 Foxy’s Spirit, Monkey Magic
    1.5 Plansina
    Preview – Emilia James was only just beaten on debut by a 2to Fahey runner and will be very difficult to beat. If one of the top three above her looks a size bigger and is supported it may be worth a dabble.
    Hugh

    alpha2 27/04/17 1:13 PM Reply


  • Not sure if he would have caught the leader but Petite Power would have certainly gone close if not for a bad mistake at the last.

    Three from me from Punchestown so you may want to adjust your stakes. Firstly I think there are three reasons why Lil Rockefeller can go one better than Cheltenham in the 17:30. Firstly I think he prefers right handed tracks. Secondly King is in the best form he has been all season (4/12,8p in the past 14 days) and Dickie get onboard. Given he has had a mid season break he comes here fresher than most. At the prices he looks a solid e/w bet.

    I was lucky enough to throw a speculative £5e/w on Sizing Granite yesterday and there are similar reasons why I can see Sizing Platinum going close today in the 16:15 in a first time tongue tie. All the Tizzard horses have ran well at Punchestown and given his form behind Fox Norton earlier in the season he could be very well treated. I think his last run would have been a prep for today. You could argue he is slightly better right handed.

    Finally I think No Comment has been saved for this in the 18:05. I don’t think he was really put into either of his last races. He won a bumper on this card last year and hasn’t lost going right handed this season. He was on Mark Howard’s top 40 to follow for this season. The handicapper actually dropped him a lb for his last run when he he glided through the rest of the field to finish second. I really expect him to be there or thereabouts.

    nickmazur 27/04/17 1:19 PM Reply


    • Good luck Nick, yep I think they all have a decent enough chance, I like Sizing Platinum and No Comment, although I appear to have a few bullets scattered around the 3.40 and 6.05 – I had a nibble on Tizzards other one at 25s that chased you home yesterday- as you say they seem to be running well.
      Odd that most were so under the weather during Festival week- something was clearly up but whatever it was has clearly gone now.
      Yet to have a go at No Comment but will no doubt throw something at him having tipped him LTO- i wonder if this has been the plan.

      Josh 27/04/17 1:37 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. At a slight tangent its interesting that Cobden has managed to latch on with Tizzard more as the season has gone on. I presume Nicholls is not really going to be able to have STD, Bowen and Cobden plus the stable conditional next season so Cobden might be the odd one out there or am I over thinking things?

        Nick Mazur 27/04/17 1:48 PM Reply


        • Yea no real idea. He is some serious talent and I can’t think Nicholls will let him leave as such- not sure what the relationship is though and how that will work moving forwards. Tizzard has the horses- that could well be a move by the Potts also? They strike me as definitely having a say as to who rides their horses ,albeit he has clearly ridden a few for Tizzard outside of theirs. And he doesn’t have a stable jockey as such, and with his yard growing still, maybe he could become stable jock. A watch this space one maybe, but I can’t see him struggling for rides.

          Josh 27/04/17 2:06 PM Reply


          • Harry Cobden has ridden Dragoon Guard for the Geegeez syndicate I am in and he is an impressive individual. Cool headed, articulate and seems both serious and driven.
            Furure to draw I think.
            Hugh

            alpha2 27/04/17 2:30 PM Reply


  • Spot on with Dapper Man Josh.Nice bit of 33 ew ta very much.

    Colzoss 27/04/17 3:28 PM Reply


    • cheers, yea had to have a little 5EW myself at 33s, payed for a few Punchy darts!
      Shame another wanted to get to the front but sensible ride on him then, has ensured he got placed and in truth given how winner has done it, I think a place was the best he could have hoped for. Turned into two races until late on.. clearly has the pace to lead over 7f,one for the tracker as around a turning track you would think they will find a win in him, making all.

      Josh 27/04/17 3:32 PM Reply


      • had a fiver each way myself and a score on atteq so my best race by far, also had a fiver saver on Bit of a Querke @6-1 , great day out and managed to show a small £23 profit on the day, cheers Josh.

        martin whittle 27/04/17 6:50 PM Reply


        • my lad was having a mare until the last race but had a big wedge on Rinaria to recoup all his losses so happy boys all round

          martin whittle 27/04/17 6:52 PM Reply


  • That should read “future top draw”!

    alpha2 27/04/17 3:33 PM Reply


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