Members Daily Post: 27/04/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps 

Taunton

1.50 – Zephyr (all hncps) H3 G3 13/2 2nd 

3.25 – After Eight Sivola (all hncps) 9/2 UP

4.30 – Cockney Wren (NHF) H1 11/10

 

Market Rasen

I dont think there are any.None.

 

Bonus 

3.40 Punch – Highland Fling 33/1 4th  / Soir De Chantenay 18/1 UP

 

Summer Jumps

Perth 

2.35 – Valseur De Granval (hncp chase) H1 G3 11/4 UP

4.10 – Mystifiable (all hncps) G3 4/1 WON 4/1

4.45 –

Petite Power (all hncps) 7/1

Hello George (micro class) H3 G3 2/1

 

Bonus

3.35 – Wot A Shot (novice hncps) 10/1 UP

 

Flat

Beverley 

1.40 –

Lucky Beggar (all hcncps) 5/1 UP

Spirit of Wedza (3yo+) 8/1

Lydia’s Place (micro going) 10/1 WON (10p R4) 9/1 

Lawless Louis (micro runs 90 days) H3 5/1 3rd 8/1

3.50 –

Lopito De Vega (all hncps) H1 10/1 UP

All You (4yo+) G3 9/1 UP

4.25 – Gaelic Tiger (4yo+, +micro TJC) H1 7/4

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day… (test: 7/37, +33 points)

I am going double handed again here…

3.40 Punch- Soir De Chantenay – 1 point win – 18/1 (BV/PP/WH) UP

4.45 Perth – Petite Power – 1 point win – 11/2 (general) (2 non runners now,reformed market price)

 

3.40 – Well this one is unexposed, 0/3,1p in handicap hurdles and it appears the trainer won this race last year. He also arrives in form having run well enough in a fairly big field LTO. He isn’t really doing anything different – bar the going. This is his first run, in a handicap anyway, on a decent surface and given his sire is USA bred – who I generally think of as wanting a sounder surface but then breeding isn’t my thing really – he may improve for it. He isn’t usually held up either and given there should be more to come at some point, at that price, I will roll the dice.

4.45 – Petite Power- hmmm.. well I will trust Fergal here that he is none the worse for his run yesterday. He may just bomb out and be knackered but they know the horse and if he was droopy you’d think they wouldn’t run him. But sometimes you don’t know until you run them. He was running very well yesterday until an error at the last and this trip could bring out more. He reverts to hurdles which take less energy to clamber over and I thought it interesting that the last time he ran in a handicap hurdle, he bolted up. That was the first sign of decent form for the yard really and suggested they had found the key. He is unexposed generally, but certainly in handicap hurdles. And, with the fav now a non runner, it does open this up a bit I think. If he runs like he did yesterday he goes close for me, or he will be PU. At that price, in this field, I will take the chance. All bar Total Assets have a few questions to answer, and she has to defy a 7lb rise for her win LTO. It looks an open race. Oh, and Fergal is 2/7,3p with horses returning within 7 days.

 

That is all for today.

 

**

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Punchestown ‘qualifiers’ (against notes)

Blimey, the stats throw up quite a few pointers/starting points today…

3.40 –

Pinkie Brown (Chelt LTO/PU- 25/1 2nd yesterday) 3rd 

Bobabout (JH 15 days/unexp) WON 12/1

Orchard Road (GE handicap ‘micro’) UP

Sweet Company (Martin IF 6/1<) UP

Highland Fling (trainer all) 4th 33s

Soir De Chantenay (as above) UP

Stamp Your Feet (as above) 5h 8s

 

4.15 –

Bold Henry (Chelt LTO/Distance ‘move’) (JP- 16/1+ a NEG for these types) UP

Mr Fiftyone (Chelt LTO/Dist ‘move’) (JH Hncp chase BUT 5+ hncp chase runs a ‘neg’) UP

Sizing Platinum (Chelt LTO/Dist ‘move’) UP

Tully East (Chelt LTO/Top 3- 2/3,3p) UP

Dont Touch It (JH hncp chase/last 15 days/unexp) WON 5/1

Shadow Catcher (GE handicap ‘micro’) UP

Third Option (as above) UP

Neverushacon (JE, hncp chase/unexp) 3rd 20/1

 

5.30 – Unowhatimeanharry (Fry all, + JP Chelt LTO)

6.05 –

Skip The Cuddles (Chelt LTO/Dist Move/3m Punch)

Sure Reef (Chelt LTO as above)

Kate Appleby Shoes (Mullins hncp pointers/’micro’)

Billys Hope (JH 15 days/unexp)

Okotoks (Martin, 6/1<)

Minella Awards (Fry all)

 

6.40 –

Ballyoisin (JP Novice)

Great Field (JP Novice)

**

My Punchy Thoughts…

From my own ‘Punchy Punting Bank’ (5vers flying around everywhere,thankfully one landed on Jessie’s 18/1 winner yesterday…)

Well, 3.40 – Pinkie Brown EW looks a must- esp given 5th in race last year, and that Chelt LTO PU angle… And the Two Cromwell horses,with pref for JPs… they are bonus picks, trainer record at meeting from very few runners, they are decent prices.

6.05- SkipTheCuddles- hits a couple of angles and of interest McPherson sends this one over here- he is 4/16 with handicap debutants in last 2 years also. Given his price, I may have to have nibble. Kate Appleby Shoes hits Mullins handicap profile for this meeting- and is a double figure price, so she will have something on.

I may see if there are any ‘winning profiles’ for either of the two big handicap hurdles..

Doesn’t look like there are any trends/stats for those two big handicap hurdles. 

No further thoughts really.

I suppose Billy’s Hope looks of some interest in the 6.05 also, and I have just noticed No Comment runs here for Hobbs- I tipped him LTO at Aintree where he was held up in a race where the winner made all- and he could be really smart for Honeyball. The ride cost him getting closer for me, but then again they may have ridden him that way to ensure he got the trip – or JP wanted to ensure he was well handicapped for this race! 🙂 

 

Do with all that as you please, and if it is too much, just ignore the lot.

 

 

**

 

4. Hobbs/April (14/1<) (10/1< best) (from last month’s research article)

3.25 Taunt – Beau Du Brizais

4.15 Punch – Bold Henry

(as an aside, HOBBS… he was at Perth yesterday and when interviewed said he was travelling over to Punchestown today before heading onto Sandown on Saturday… no idea if that means anything but any runners he has at Punchy may be worth a second glance. Unless he just likes a party…although his wife was staying in Perth. He had runners earlier in the week in Ireland,one in the bumper,so of interest he wasn’t there then maybe. Or that means sod all.) 

 

 

 

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • Josh, anything else take your fancy at Beverley as it’s tomorrow i’m going?

    martin whittle 26/04/17 6:56 PM Reply


    • Nothing stood out when I looked earlier but in general low draw is your friend particularly over the shorter trips

      Nick Mazur 26/04/17 7:02 PM Reply


    • Leave it with me. Will post up any thoughts in comments in morning. Will have a flick through tomorrow early on.

      Josh 26/04/17 8:06 PM Reply


    • Ravenhoe 3:50 Beverley has come up from a decent Johnston/Beverley micro I have set up (probs one of Josh’s older ones). The stable are starting to have winners and this one is a course winner.

      I also like the look of Pinkie Brown in 3:40 Punch @ 28/1. Fifth in race last year and running off same mark with 7lb claimer when Fehily is available. Has shown decent form over fences early season including a decent 2nd to Forest Bihan giving 2Ib, and now running off much higher mark over fences. Switch to hurdles and back down in trip is interesting at price.

      Chris R.

      broadsword 27/04/17 8:00 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin..
      My record when I have a ‘quick flick through the cards’ is questionable, so take these with a pinch of salt…

      1.40- Lucky Beggar (fit,well drawn,front runs/on pace,could get rail) and Lydia’s Place (again can be up there but maybe could have run better LTO) look the most interesting to me. Cue another one from TTP bolting up! Spirit of Wedza is high drawn and yet to prove 5f is what he wants,but a fair bit of pace on and if there is a collapse maybe something just off it swoops past)

      2.10- looks like the Johnston horse is the one to beat- fit, has experience, and Fanning will try and make all- short price- could do some muggy forecasts maybe- and given how Fahey’s 2yos are going,put his in it- jockey bookings suggest shazzab is the one- he may even win.

      2.45 – Arc Royal- he stool out to me with my 60 second glance- bit of experience, fit,appreciate step up in trip and they may try and make all with him- Johnton’s may be up there but may need the run and he doesn’t have to lead- should give backers a run for their money I think.

      3.15 – Dapper Man 33s- an at the track fun EW punt – I just liked the pace angle as I suspect they may try and make all again- he faded over 8f LTO- drop to 7f here and has now had a run. It could be he just isn’t very good but could get the heart racing until about 1f out, then who knows! They will probably hold him up now.

      Suppose Geophony looks of interest also of those near the top end – had a run and drops in trip, Fanning may try and be handy with him also, given drop back. A race full of unexposed 3 year olds so who knows!

      3.50 – covered in TTP, of those near top end of market ‘Bit of a Querke’ looks interesting – although th e number of placed efforts may start to be a concern, maybe he doesn’t fully go through with his effort but he is fit, will run on the pace/try make all, and the yard is in form.

      No real thoughts on the final two races, could use the ‘paddock eye’ and see if anything really jumps out at you on looks etc.

      Enjoy.

      Josh 27/04/17 9:19 AM Reply


      • thanks Josh, i’ll probably leave the qualifiers alone as already backed on BF, might give Tick The Boxes an ew punt in the first in case he can reproduce AW form, the rest look interesting especially Dapper Man, iv’e got my jammy git money so just going to have a good day out.

        martin whittle 27/04/17 9:57 AM Reply


  • Well -2 point for Wednesday, so that puts my test running at -21.88 points early days yet. (-20 points on first two days before I decided to only look at 15%+ chance of winning)
    My qualifiers
    Jumps
    Taunton
    1.50 – Zephyr H3, G3, 17% 11/2+, Price taken 15/2
    Summer Jumps
    Perth
    2.35 – Valseur De H1, G3, 49%, 11/8+ Price taken 5/2
    Bonus
    3.35 – Wot A Shot 19% 4/1+ Price taken 8/1

    Flat
    Beverley
    3.50 – Lopito De Vega H1, 17% 9/2+ Price taken 10/1

    Good Luck

    Gavin 26/04/17 10:13 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    don’t know if you realise it, but when get site on computer it is saying problem with your security certificate and advises not to log on?

    pendrem 27/04/17 5:24 PM Reply


    • Hi Malc, you going through google? It isn’t my site. I thought that had been sorted. The guy who helps me with all things technical has another side on the server etc – and for some reason google mixes them up. Have let him know as he thought it was fixed. You should see the ‘secure’ green text in top right hand corner when on this site, I can see it as I write…

      There is nothing wrong with this site, or that one actually. second link down when you google is all fine.

      Josh

      Josh 27/04/17 5:43 PM Reply


    • Try with firefox chrome is strange sometimes

      Pab 27/04/17 8:25 PM Reply


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