3.50 – Chelt
Talk of The South – 1 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/BV/SJ) 9/1 (gen) PU 9/2
Federici- 1/2 point win- 8/1 (general) UP 10/1
Shortlist: Talk of The South / Federici / Upswing WON 7/2>4/1 / Lamb Or Cod
Well the money didn’t speak for Talk of The South, that 10/1 punt was never in it, never really travelling. Maybe the ground, maybe just not good enough to go that pace (could be linked to ground) Beat the market, which was the only positive. Slight drift for Upswing who did it well enough in the end as there was a chance he would. But if I can make a case for ones at a bigger price, I will take them on. Albeit I had no covering fire on him.
Well there isn’t much I can do when the fancied ones bolt up, but pleased that recent selections have been chasing them home. It shows the analysis and 3m+ chase brain is functioning ok. This game is about mindset and I rather be bullish in taking horses on that I think are the right price/others are over-priced. You can’t run scared of fancied horses. Doing Fine deserved to be 7/2 but that wasn’t a price I fancied- given he had shown a liking for not putting his head in front on recent runs- although doesn’t look at attitude issue, he is usually held up- so you need luck in running, and at some point you may have to close leaders and jump faster,so possible errors, and his two previous efforts at the track weren’t the best -although possibly excuses. That’s how I justify taking him on. I am awful when I go to back anything under 6s in general, so over time I probably best not bothering. There were a handful who I thought were over-priced, and they out-ran their odds. You either decide to go with the 7/2 shot (I often get that wrong), run scared and leave the race alone- that’s when a biggie falls in that you ‘considered’, or take them on- often my approach)
As an aside, Azure Fly- no idea what Dickie was playing at. I am a big fan and like how he and D Cook ride chasers- they win many more than they lose through aggressive tactics, but he has killed the poor horse here. He looks in decent form to my eye but why he hasn’t just tracked Troika Steppes god only knows. That has cost him a chance of placing maybe, but may ensure he goes off a bigger price NTO. IF Dickie rides again and there is no other pace, he could make all. He has just done too much there.
Talk Of The South –
At a double figure price I think he is worth a stab here. He is a hold up horse, he is new to the track, and his jumping could be better at times- that is why you want a price. The ground is a niggle. BUT.. he is lightly raced over fences, 0/7,3p, the trainer is in form (4/13,8p last 30 days) and so is the horse- in fact him and Upswing are the only two I would class as ‘in form’- running well, and importantly ‘going forward’ at the finish LTO, rather than backwards. It looks like he needs to go LH and this is his first crack at a really stiff track. That coupled with this distance could be the key. He looks like a stayer. He has ran well on good to soft. Good is an unknown, rather than a known. We don’t have enough evidence to judge , and again, in that situation you want a price. He may relish it. He may get out-paced, not put down, and be PU. The trainer is 2/8,3p here in C2 handicap chases and I think he could be well placed here to out-run these odds.
I just thought he has a different profile, we haven’t seen the best of him yet, and he comes here in form. Which most of these don’t. Stamina won’t be a problem. Some of his placed form is decent enough also, esp his second at Warwick in December. So, he is worth a go for me.
Of the rest…
Federici- well I am on the fence. The race he contested LTO he had won the year before, for his previous trainer, and in that context it was a poor run. He stays that distance but went backwards. This will have been an afterthought. It could be, as with the selection, that this trip at this track is perfect for him. He races prominently and generally jumps well. That Catterick run was decent a few starts ago. He is 8s generally and there are worse ‘spare change’ candidates. I just thought he needs more, and I can’t see why he would build on that run LTO given conditions were ideal- unless he didn’t like the ferry over. He is in better form than most in here, and does have assured stamina. He is on the shortlist and given that I should throw 1/2 a point at him to find out, given he is 8s. It would be a tad annoying if he won this, without any tipping points on. Me and my shortlists.
Upswing- well he deserves to be fav but if I couldn’t back Doing Fine at 7/2, I can’t back him. But, he is in form, and has a decent run here in a much better race, in November 15. So, he handles conditions. Those two factors alone, along with Jonjos decent form, make him deserve to be at the top of the market. But, he is inconsistent, he is usually held up,and can hit a fence. I also am not sure how good he is these days- Ffos Las form is rarely form to follow, but we shall see.
Lamb or Cod- again on the fence a bit – he is inconsistent, 10 years old, and comes here having PU LTO. I wasn’t jumping up and down to back him at 9/2. He could get an easy lead here- but McCain’s won’t be far away, and all conditions are fine. He likes decent ground and likes the track. IF on a going day, then he may well take this. And I will be left thinking 9/2 was ok. PU 0 PU is not a formline I like taking too short a price about. But I won’t put you off if you like him. He doesn’t have to lead – he isn’t a sulker if not getting his own way- so that last run can only be put down to ‘being him’. Backers will hope he is in a better mental state today. Like I say all conditions are fine but the price puts me off a tad. Just the kind of horse I get wrong!
I can’t have the rest, for one reason or another, and if they beat me then so be it.
Tom George Chasers (any odds)
2.40 Chelts- Storming Strumpet
Trainer/Jockey Combo– Live Test
4.20 Chelt – Luccombe Down (12/1< guide)
8.00 Taunt- Golanova
Hugh Fowler’s weekly 2 year old round up can be read HERE>>>
Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Stats (non members)
A combined Flat + Summer Jumps guide will be available on Friday, from around 12pm. The price will be £27 (+VAT), 60 day money back guarantee.
That is all for today.