Members Daily Post: 18/04/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps

Kempton 

4.45 –

Stowaway Magic (all hncps + hncp hurdle) H3, G3 2/1 WON 13/8

Oscar Hoof (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro runs this season) 6/1 2nd 

 

Ludlow 

7.30 – Cobra De Mai (micro runs this season) 14,30 H3, G3 9/4

 

Exeter

6.10 – Only Gorgeous (hncp chase) H1, G3  1/1 WON 13/8

 

Flat

Newmarket 

3.30 – Briyouni (4yo+, + micro 90 days) 14 G3 18/1 UP

5.05 – Vibrant Chords (micro 90 days) 11/2 UP 2/1

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Nothing to add today. None of the jumps horses, at their prices, can tempt me in and I will personally let them all run.

Flat- well the stats are finding the odd winner which is welcome, just need one or two to start going in on the ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+’ approach, (aka the #1 strategy). I would not be betting on those with the same amount you may do on the jumps ones, not just yet. The long term comfort should come from the consistency of the ratings sets we use, and it appears my approach to the stats will find winners,so in theory it should work just as fine as the jumps. In general though we are dealing with bigger fields it seems, and possibly the average odds may end up higher, but the winners could well pay more, over time. Let’s see how Briyouni gets on today.

Results: I will aim to get the spreadsheets updated early next week, before then doing another ‘monthly review’ for April.

If you have yet to spend anytime flicking through last months results post please do. You can read that HERE>>>

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Craven Meeting Trainer Notes: CLICK HERE TO READ/DOWNLOAD>>>

Newmarket Notes…

1.50

-Mark of Approval (7/2< a pos, + godolphin)

-Dawadebb (16/1< guide ) (micro,+ a few others)

-Borthwen (16/1< guide)

-Elyaasaay (distance)

-Night Circus (godolphin, maiden,others)

2.20

-Devil’s Cowboy (class)

2.55

-Via Egnatia (odds,class)

-Salsabeel (godolphin, career runs)

3.30

-Sacred Act (7/2< a pos) (class/age)

-Next Stage (GB bred/godolphin-career runs, micro is 8/1<)

-Briyouni (hncps)

4.05

-Khalidi (distance, class)

4.35

-Never You Mind (16/1< guide) class, race type, micro if 16/1< (looks unlikely!)

-A Faak (as above, 16/1< etc)

-Top Mission (trainer MO,+ godolphin)

5.05

-NONE

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4.40 Fairyhouse: Members Only

  • 10/10 11-1 or less
  • 10/10 had won within last 6 starts
  • 10/10 yet to win above C2
  • 10/10 No jockey claims (0/42,8p claims)

 

Those leave a ‘shortlist’ of: Joey Sasa UP/ Joshua Lane UP/ Chambord Du Lys UP / St Stephen Green UP / Veinard 2nd 

Running at Cheltenham LTO a slight negative (0/20,4p), as is only have 1 handicap hurdle win in career ( 0/30,4p..could be random stat) but that would ‘remove’ Joey Sasa and Veinard, leaving three…

Joshua Lane 16s  / Chambord Du Lys 8s  / St Stephen Green 16s

No ‘tips’, use that info as you please.

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That is all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • hi josh
    SMITHSCORNER! had £2 BFSP win, was 75 to 1 @ time, bet it as on Saturdays back all 10+,so thought bank holiday Monday is very similar to a Saturday, nearly was!

    pendrem 18/04/17 8:21 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm.. oh that was agonising- i just put £5 to win at 66s, which was idiotic in hindsight given how well his bumper horse had run the day before, and placed. Would have turned a losing day into a very very good day. Not to be. A shame the winner had Codd up top, probably would have won but for bumping into any other jockey. Still, it got the heart racing momentarily.

      Josh 18/04/17 11:03 AM Reply


  • I think Joshua Lane is a good choice for a selection in the 4.40 race. Golden Spear is the “fly” horse, being a bit unexposed.

    The other 3 at the head of the market, including Chambord Du Lys, I will miss out but I would include Thomas Hobson, Ice Cold Soul and also Joey Sasa from your original list

    Norman Stewart 18/04/17 12:15 PM Reply


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