Free Daily Post: 17/04/17 (complete)

 

**

5.00 Fairyhouse: Irish National Tips

Alpha Des Obeaux – 1 point win – BFSP UP

Abolitionist – 1 point win – BFSP 3rd 

Haymount – 1 point win – BFSP UP

Oh well no complaints there, Abolitionist gave me something to cheer looking like he may go close turning for home. Haymount ran ok. Thunder And Roses ran well, such a shame he got bumped in the big one. They have all bumped into one there who looks destined for the top table of the staying chase division. No doubt plenty more to come. Impressive for one so inexperienced, brilliant ride, probably only thought he was in a 4 runner race. That’s three tipping races in a row a shorter priced, ‘could be anything’ type has romped home. Damn. 

**

The shortlist is below and I have very much focused on that. As always with races like this it looks a tricky affair to work out. I have gone BFSP on the lot personally and will declare at those prices. You can of course take a price but I can’t see many shortening drastically in this race. I could be wrong.

Alpha Des Obeaux – he is lightly raced and unexposed, with a touch of class. I believe he has burst blood vessels the last twice which doesn’t fill you with confidence but he should be a decent price here and given his place on the shortlist I had to have a go I think.

Abolitionist – well he has been in superb form for his new trainer and deserves a crack at this prize. Like with most in here the trip is a bit of an unknown but I can’t see a reason not to have a go. Ticks plenty of boxes and with luck in running should run his race again.

Haymount- well he ticks that ‘distance LTO micro’ of sorts below, which in effect is those that ran in the NH Chase at the Festival LTO I think. Both he and Arbre D V did that. He ran a decent race there, even more so given he took the first fence with him. He also came from the back in a race that wasn’t too strongly run I don’t think. Mullins is now 0/20,2p in this but I won’t let that put me off. If he has a blowout here, maybe it is just a race he never targets with the right horse.  He ticks enough boxes and with any luck will stay.

Of the others…well you know I have probably left the winner on the shortlist, or more likely they have not been mentioned at all.

Bonnie Kate came into this race last year in much better form and ended up being PU. She was PU LTO and those two things have put me off a tad. But you can make some sort of case and could be ‘small change’ material. But I have some doubts.

Arbre De Vie- stamina is a real unknown having rarely raced beyond 2m5f. But, he does tick plenty of other boxes and on the approach I used clearly wouldn’t be a total shock- but stamina the big query really. I would have liked to have seen some more solid form over 3m,3m+.

Sambremont- isn’t in best form and all of his career wins/best efforts have been in heavy. I was happy to dodge him.

I have used some ‘random/strange’ stats to create that shortlist below, but they stood out to me and given how recent weeks have gone I won’t change that approach. It is likely I haven’t mentioned the winner but with any luck these three can run a big race.

GL with whatever you fancy. That’s it for tips today.

Irish Grand National Shortlist 

I used a ‘winning profile’ of… ran in last 90 days (20 year stats decent enough) , 5th or lower in the weights, Not 1-2 handicap chase runs only, ran in Novice chase/handicap chase/novice hurdle LTO, Not a G3 LTO, 7+ runners, Not 2m2f-2m5f LTO.

I think that leaves: Alpha Des Obeaux / Abolitionist / Haymount / Arbre De Vie / Bonny Kate / Sambremont.

(full trends in the comments below)

**

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo– Live Test

4.15 Chep  – Diamond Fort (12/1<) WON 11/2>7/1

 

***

NAME THE HORSE: POLL 

The guys at White Diamond Racing received over 200 emails with name suggestions, both from you good folk and their other promotional activity on twitter. The one with the most votes below, combined with their twitter poll, will be the name chosen. And if you suggested that name, you will win the main prize.  Have a vote on your favourite… (poll closes at 6pm) (a blog post on the opp to consider a share will be posted soon)

Name The Racehorse Competition: 1 Vote...

  • Seven Blessings (27%, 44 Votes)
  • Box of Diamonds (20%, 32 Votes)
  • Holy Moly Amy (20%, 33 Votes)
  • Blessed To Empress (33%, 54 Votes)

Total Voters: 163

 

**

I think that is all for today.

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh,
    I’m probably ” Barking Mad !! “, but my bet is going to be — First Lieutenant E/W. —I hardly ever back E/W but am bottling it here !!
    If it wins I’ll explain my reckoning ,rather than not writing and being wise after the event. When it gets stuffed,I’ll go back in to my shell !!

    goldenbear3 17/04/17 9:44 AM Reply


    • Hey, haha, well he is a decent price and even if he places that is a good return, not sure even I would put you off EW at 66s+. Spotting the right cap is going to be fun. GL

      Josh 17/04/17 11:35 AM Reply


    • You may be on the right track as it is a system bet for horses weighted below 10st 10 @ value prices – and the trainer targets the race too.

      chrisrees 17/04/17 11:56 AM Reply


  • BLESS THE WINGS. 16/1
    I backed him at 25/1 AP for the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham where he finished second to Cause To Causes,
    who has franked the form by finishing second in the Grand National.
    If he is in the same mood as he was at Cheltenham then he should run very well in the Irish National for the second year running having been beaten a short head second in last years race, and he is just 2lb higher.

    ian straker 17/04/17 10:36 AM Reply


    • Astonishingly, a member of another forum, who uses current form, has him rated 25lb clear. Something I’ve never seen before in such a handicap.
      I’ve had a bet on Wounded Warrior as two years ago he had G1 form suggesting this trip would be needed. Should be fully fit after a run to the last fence in the GN, so 66/1 seemed tempting.

      chrisrees 17/04/17 10:50 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh/ All

    Went through the Irish National trends last night with your method Josh. I used the last 14 yrs in line HRB V4 builder. I’ve had some success with this method in big field Irish hcap races like the Paddy Power winner – Noble Endeavor.

    Anyway here’s what I found:

    12/14 IRE Bred (78%R,81%P), FR Bred 2/45,7p, GB Bred 0/27,3p, Other 0/8,0p
    14/14 Aged 6-10 (91%,91%) / 13/14 Aged 7-10 (85%,83%)
    14/14 were 0lbs ahead (75%,85%)
    14/14 Carried max 10-13 (0/50,3p above)
    14/14 Ran in Lst race or above previously
    14/14 Had 1-3 runs in 90 days (85%,93%)
    14/14 Had 11-31 C-Runs (77%,76%)
    14/14 Had 2-7 C-Wins (89%,94%)
    14/14 Never won @ Dist
    14/14 Had 0-4 Hcap CH wins
    14/14 Had 1-4 CH-Wins (86%,85%)
    14/14 Had 3-15 C-PL (85%,83%)
    14/14 Had 2-7 CH-PL (81%,80%)
    14/14 Ran 16-90 Days ago (85%,93%)
    14/14 Never had 7lbs claimer /0/23,5p used a 7lbs Claimer
    0/21,2p Ran in G1 LTO
    Did not run @ Fhse, Punch, Aintree, Limerick or D.Royal LTO

    Leaves:
    Another Hero (IRE) – NR
    Fletchers Flyer (IRE)
    Haymount (IRE)
    Minella Foru (IRE)
    Oscar Knight (IRE)

    There’s interesting trends for odds cap:
    12/14 SP 12/1-50/1 (78%,78%) / 2/82,12p Outside of this
    0/10,2p SP 7/1 or less
    1/16,3p Fav or JF

    All 4 of the shortlist will have to be watched in the betting as all on hovering around the 12/1 mark. Fletcher’s Flyer is unlikely to drift but I can’t leave him out having been laid out for this and my liking of his trainer.

    I’ve a number of secondary trends but I felt a shortlist of 4 was sufficient. I’ll probably dutch all 4 e/w for interest, hopefully it works out better than the English version of the race!

    Joe H

    Joe H 17/04/17 10:37 AM Reply


    • Top work Joe, good luck. Good to see with our different approaches to the stats that we agree on one! Maybe Haymount will break Willies duck this year. Will watch the others with interest. Hopefully the winner is on one of our shortlists
      Josh

      Josh 17/04/17 11:37 AM Reply


      • Be nice to have Haymount come in for both of us! Fingers crossed & good luck

        Joe H 17/04/17 11:52 AM Reply


  • My tentative vote for the Irish National goes to Bonny Kate who fits the trends pretty well. I have also thrown a couple quid e/w on Raz De Maree who would be a complete trends buster but I would kick myself if he won after he got hampered and brought down early last weekend.

    A couple in the UK. Firstly Oh Land Abloom (Market Rasen 16:30) is a very consistent animal at this level and 10/1 looked like a solid bet. Neil King is in good form and the horse loves it around here.

    I also want to take a bit of a punt on Brother Tiger in the 16:55 at Redcar. He has been dropped 8 lbs for his last run which seems a little excessive. He drops down in class even further. JoGo gets the ride for the first time which is a positive. His last win was only 14 months ago off 12 lbs higher even if it was on the all weather. His run style should suit and his only ever win on the flat came on this track. He could be completely gone at the game and his trainer could be in better form but 25/1 looked too big and given the sea of blue on oddschecker someone else seems to agree.

    nickmazur 17/04/17 10:43 AM Reply


    • Yes, I was an early backer of Brother T. despite an anxiety about the trip.
      430MR Card Game had some strong back form and with a better run lto was a bet.
      1245H I missed the prices for Gasoline before the plunge; his trainer has him ready now!

      chrisrees 17/04/17 11:00 AM Reply


    • Oh Land of injustice Nick, what a pick! Took another £5 at 31 in running.
      Hugh

      alpha2 17/04/17 4:38 PM Reply


    • Someone pass me the bucket!

      Nick Mazur 17/04/17 4:39 PM Reply


  • The Irish National

    TRENDS

    10 years: 10/269,38p

    Days Since Run

    Ran 91+ days ago: 0/14,0p
    Horse Weight

    10/10 10-13 or less
    11-00 + : 0/33,1p
    9/10 had 10-9 or less
    10-10-10-3: 1/30, 3p
    Meaning 10-10+ : 1/63,4p
    Horse Official Rating

    OR 143+ : 0/32,0p
    OR 138+ : 1/82, 8p
    Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

    8/10 had won over 3m+
    Had Not: 2/96, 14 p

    ***

    OTHER STATS

    Miscellaneous 1

    Origin of Horse

    GB: 0/21,1p
    IRE: 9/206,32
    FR: 1/35,4p
    Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

    Top 4: 0/49,3p

    ‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

    H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

    0-1: 0/38, 7p
    H-Run (NH Race Type)

    9/10 had 12 or fewer chase runs
    13+ : 1/86,10p
    (Winner last year, 1/11,3p last year)
    H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

    1-2 handicap chase runs only: 0/64,6p
    H-Run (Last Win)

    9/10 had won at least once on last 4 starts
    Had not: 1/121,13p

    The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

    H-Win (Career)

    9/10 had 2-4 career wins
    5+ : 1/116,16p
    Miscellaneous 2

    Distance Move

    Down 3-4F from last run: 4/19 runners, 5p, +60 SP, +89 BFSP
    Up 1m-1m3f from last run: 0/85,10 places
    H-Places (NH Race type)

    8+ : 0/41,7p

    Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

    (LR)-last run – NH Race Type

    9/10 ran in a novice chase or handicap chase LTO
    ‘Chase: 0/37,2p
    Handicap Hurdle: 0/34,5p
    Handicap Novice Chase: 0/16,2p
    Novice Hurdle: 1/3,1p
    All Hurdles: 1/48,6p
    (LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

    9/10 ran in C1 or 2 LTO
    Class 3 or lower: 1/78, 10 places
    (LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

    Grade 3: 0/49,5p
    Grade 1: 0/17,2p
    (LR) No. of Runners

    6 or fewer: 0/34, 3p
    (LR) Distance

    2m: 1/7,2p (that was over hurdles, the only ‘LTO run over hurdles’ winner. It was a novice hurdle)
    2m2f-2m5f LTO: 0/85,10p
    4m: 3/10,3p, +54 SP (possibly all the National Hunt Chase at Festival)
    Ran 4m-4m1f LTO: 4/19,5p… +60 SP, +90 BFSP
    (LR) Track

    Chelt: 5/68, 12 places
    Leop: 2/33,5p
    1 win only: Gowran/Naas/Navan
    Fairyhouse: 0/16,3p
    Down Royal: 0/9,0p
    Trainers (of interest)

    M Morris: 2/9,5p
    Jonjo O’Neill: 2/8,4p
    1 win: Motherway/A L T Moore/Love/Buckler/S Hughes/T Gibney
    G Elliot: 0/11,2p
    W Mullins: 0/20,2p
    N Meade: 0/12,0p
    P Nolan: 0/8,0p
    M Hourigan: 0/12,5p
    A J Martin: 0/16,1p
    Dreaper: 0/7,2p
    **

    Josh 17/04/17 11:12 AM Reply


  • Ng101DT

    Peter nottingham 17/04/17 12:20 PM Reply


  • My trends angle came up with a shortlist of 5. Much the same as Josh give or take 1, as I chucked Haymount out on the fact it hadn’t won over 3m+. I settled with backing Bonny Kate EW. Low weights normally favoured in this. Good luck all

    Rob P 17/04/17 12:29 PM Reply


    • good luck Rob. Yep the 3m bit is a niggle, but in the end just enough for me to go on- him running over 4m=4m1 LTO swayed me also, looks an interesting micro moving forwards given 4/19 runners last decade. I think that is the National Hunt Chase LTO so I should go back and have a look at what others qual on that angle really. Following those over the next decade may pay quite well, we shall see! GL.

      Josh 17/04/17 12:34 PM Reply


  • First post since Friday when my 66/1 poke failed despite the cheek pieces. Next time they Ms Kellaway may try roller skates and an engine!

    Looks hard to me today. I did like the way Tiger Roll won at Cheltenham and so would put him up in the IGN despite being a stats buster.

    I also like Hidden Cyclone, 245Fai, In Fairness, 1.40 Fak, East Indies, 2.25P.

    Good luck

    Martin Colwell 17/04/17 12:33 PM Reply


  • Why doesn’t General Principle not qualify on your trends, Josh?
    Thanks.

    John Trig 17/04/17 1:52 PM Reply


    • Ran in a G3 LTO (0/49,5p 10 years) and also race with fewer than 7 runners (0/33,2p, 6 or fewer) – just the kind of stats that may be blown out of the water! He hits a few others people’s trends approach I have seen, but there are many ways you can look at ‘stats and trends’ and I have my own way which has been working well enough.

      Josh 17/04/17 2:47 PM Reply


      • Thanks for replying.

        John Trig 20/04/17 8:49 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Must be one for the ladies this year.
    Aboliitionist…Miss E Holden

    Stuart

    Stuart Hazelwood 17/04/17 3:22 PM Reply


    • Hi Stuart, I do hope you’re right. Has done nothing wrong, in the form of his life, in decent races, if he stays then I would like to think he will go close. Something may have more in hand but given not many starts for trainer, and if trip brings about improvement, could be more to come. A must bet given place on shortlist/odds. Fingers crossed.

      Josh 17/04/17 3:28 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh,
        So near but so far. Right sex but wrong one. Had niggly feeling about that one, but Abolitionist was my system selection.

        Hey Ho

        Stuart

        Stuart Hazelwood 17/04/17 6:10 PM Reply


        • Hi Stuart,
          That’s how it goes.. I clearly can’t pick when to be with these well handicapped good things or when not to take them on!, three races in a row now this last week, but I will always take on 6/1 shots in a race of that nature- they have all just bumped into one there, clearly a very smart horse. That’s how it goes, can’t win them all! Got excited a couple from home before realised winner was pulling away.

          Josh 17/04/17 6:35 PM Reply


  • I really like Alpha Des Obeaux my next best Bless The Wings and Haymount a little short
    4:20 R Dubai Dynamo Ruth Carr and 4:50 CH Wadswick Court

    Pab 17/04/17 3:34 PM Reply


  • Oscar Knight and Measureofmydreams two for IGN

    Marcin Sudol 17/04/17 4:09 PM Reply


Post A Reply