Members Daily Post: 15/014/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps

Carlisle 

4.30 –

La Dama De Hierro (all hncps) 15/2

Basford Ben (hncp chase) 30 G1 7/2

5.00- The Vocalist (NHF) H3 7/2

 

Haydock

2.05 –

Monetaire (all hncps + hncp chase+TJC) 8/1

Some Buckle (hncp chase) H3 11/2

Ballinvarrig (hncps chase) H3 18/1

Cernunnos (hncp chase) 7/1

2.40 –

Rathlin Rose (all hncps + hncp chase+ TJC) H1 13/2

Onderun (all hncps) 14,30 G1 25/1

Moss On The Mill (hncp chase) H3 16/1

Behind The Wire (hncp chase) H3 13/2

3.15 – Caius Marcius (all hncps) G3 14/1

3.50 – Fille Des Champs (hncp hurdle) G3 22/1 

4.20 –

Fortunate George (all hncps) 14,30 H1 G1 6/1

Chic Theatre (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro TJC) 14/1 

4.55

Conquer Gold (all hncps) H1,G3 5/1

Song Saa (hncp chase) 10/1

5.30 – Abracadabra Sivola (all hncps + hncp chase + micro TJC) H1 7/1

 

**

Summer Jumps

Newton Abbot 

4.10- Moorlands Jack (hncp chase + micro 90 days) 9/1

4.45 – Jaboltiski (hncp hurdle) 8/1

 

Stratford 

6.50 –

Elysian Prince (micro TJC) H3 G3  10/1

Whispering Storm (micro distance) G1 4/1

7.20 – Goonjim (micro going) H1 G3 4/1

**

Flat 

Musselburgh 

3.35 – Stipulate (4yo+) G3  16/1

4.05 – Washeak (1st 2yo) 30 4/1

 

Brighton 

6.35 – Becca Campbell (all hncps + micro 90 days) 5/1

7.35 –

Panther Patrol (all hncps) H3 G1 3/1

Beau Minstral (micro going) H1 G3  2/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Nothing else. No bet of the day etc. I have run out of time what with looking at the two 3m+ chases in the free post.

**

#1 Advised Strategy – Ratings Pointers 10/1+… Any horse above with a red symbol, whose price is down as 10/1 or bigger already. There are 7 of those above I think. They already qualify on that angle now, and bets should be placed if you follow it systematically.

There would have to be some major drifts on some of the others to then qualify at 11.00+ on betfair SP, but you never know.

HorseRaceBase – those of you who read the last update will have noted the questionable results of those ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifiers that had ‘only’ a H3, or H1 next to their name.(no geegeez speed rating) This is only a sample of 24 or so up to end of March and as yet not enough evidence to change the approach. Plenty of confidence in the G1 + G3, and any ‘double qualifiers’ such as Elysian Prince in the 6.50. This is something I am monitoring but at the odds we play at they are 1 or 2 winners away from going into profit. Ballinvarrig and Moss On The Mill are the two that fall into that category today, of only having a HorseRaceBase rating,10/1+ … those types, as per the results analysis, were 1/24, -19 BFSP, come end of March.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

One of those very busy days, which are thankfully rare! Any guide users, do shout if think I have missed anything, or indeed missed an entire meeting! 🙂

**

4. P Hobbs April Micro (14/1<)

(as per last months research article…yep I know, I need to re-post the ‘resources’ post with links to all old articles, if you like such things…)

3.15 Hayd- St Saviour

3.50 Hayd – Poppy Kay

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    S 7.20 Goonjim, A.Dunn (going:good)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 14/04/17 6:58 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mike,I had it down as Good To Firm where I was looking but you’re correct, it is officially Good and with no rain forecast shouldn’t be changing.

      Josh 14/04/17 7:05 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, do you advise any particular staking plan with your selections/systems?

    Dave 14/04/17 10:50 PM Reply


    • Hi Dave,
      No I don’t in short. Well, 1 point win is the main advice and is what I record all results to. I am not one for over-complicating things and am a firm believer than any approach must work to 1 point win bets.

      In truth I have never thought about any more complex staking plans. I suppose one option is to bet a % of a bank until you get to a level stakes amount you are happy with.

      The main advice is to follow the #1 advised strategy as a minimum, and then you can work out how to engage in the rest of the qualifiers from there, using my results reviews etc to help guide.

      One member has been following the #1 advised strategy and started with a £250 bank betting 2% (so £5 win) and worked his way up to betting £20s, which was a level he was comfortable with and now sticks at.

      Other members may have thoughts on more complex staking plans but my advice is not to over-complicate things too much. Staking plans etc isn’t something I know too much about as yet- I have always been a level stakes punter.

      Josh

      Josh 15/04/17 11:09 AM Reply


      • Thanks for replying. 1 point win is fine, nice to hear someone not over-complicating things.

        Dave 15/04/17 11:55 AM Reply


  • 5.00- The Vocalist (NHF) H3

    This was very well backed LTO, went off fav + got a nightmare passage. Out again and there at 4/1. Will likely be well backed again.

    4.10- Moorlands Jack (hncp chase + micro 90 days)

    I fancy this also.

    luciferm 15/04/17 12:58 AM Reply


    • They’ll do nicely

      luciferm 15/04/17 5:07 PM Reply


      • Well done! Homed in on the only two winners so far, top work! Did you do a muggy double??

        Josh 15/04/17 5:42 PM Reply


  • Woohoo Josh! Elysian Prince save the day from being a wipe out @12/1 for me hope a few others got that price 🙂

    Gavin 15/04/17 7:10 PM Reply


    • Rule 4 so worked out at 10/1 dam the rule 4 🙂

      Gavin 15/04/17 7:15 PM Reply


      • Yep a good end to the day. Will be declared 7.5/1, + whatever BFSP was. 10/1 with 25p R4. I think that takes the RP 10/1 ‘double rated’ to 5/12 +50 odd points in 2017 for all ‘jumps’. Not bad.

        Josh 15/04/17 7:56 PM Reply


        • Miss calculated thought it was R4 20p so 9.5/1 bugger :-/ still good end and yes not bad at all 🙂

          Gavin 15/04/17 9:20 PM Reply


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