Hugh Fowler: 2 Year Olds (#1)

Hugh Fowler -reader, Racing to Profit Member, Geegeez Syndicate Member and expert in all things 2 year old horses, has kindly agreed to share his thoughts, for free, throughout the season. 

You will have seen his comments on daily posts with previews of the odd race, and these will continue through the year. In these feature posts Hugh will look back over recent races and review the action and the horses.

If you have any interest in learning about this specialist area, and tracking horses for the future, these posts will become a must read.

Below you can find two reviews.

Before that…

 

#1: An Introduction From Hugh

Personal – Married with 2 kids 21 and 18. I first went racing to 1950’s point to points in the back of my farmer Dad’s Mk1 Landrover. He came from a Worcestershire farming family who raced Point to Pointers. My Uncle who I was apprenticed to in the late 60’s was a former champion point to point jockey. I am allergic to horses.

Career – Friesian herdsman and shepherd, Window cleaner, Toilet roll salesman, Hoover warehouseman, wine waiter, Dunlop motor sports press officer, Pizza restaurant manager (South Africa), Wendys restaurant manager (Ohio and London), Pub manager (Fleet Street), Baked potato barrow boy (Tower Bridge), Restaurateur (Covent Garden).

Racing – Throughout all this I always managed to go racing and in 1999 with a mate bought my first racehorse, Thinkers Effort who won a 2m6f novice hurdle fto in the UK at Stratford. Then came Alpha Two, Turkestan and Thrilling Prospect all who won races. Nearly all of these ended their careers injured and the attrition rate led me to look at the flat and stumbling across B2yor was my eureka moment. Luckily my first share in Orpen Grey was a winning one, followed by Red Presence for the same syndicate.

Two year olds and paddock review – I had done a lot of cattle judging as a youngster but until I found B2yor had never really applied myself to looking at horses in the same way.

For the last 5 years, I have travelled to 2 or 3 flat meetings a week during the turf season, photographed the 2yos and learnt paddock review skills. This alone is not enough as the best-looking colt can have an ugly trainer and jockey. Drawing from B2yor and Geegeez trainer track stats approach I created an algorhythm which I use as a first point in desktop analysis. From this I develop an algorhythm score, (I suppose this is akin to a personal tissue as it throws up my opinion by weighted average of a number of stats as to the chances of any given horse winning in a numerical form).

This gives me the top few to focus on for paddock review. This is assessing the athletic ability and scope of any 2yo by means of its physical confirmation and mental readiness in the paddock before the race.

In addition to the physical build of an individual, its athleticism and potential, there are also a lot of tells that an inexperienced horse or one not properly prepared by its trainer can show that can help the experienced reviewer form an assessment of whether this horse is mentally strong enough to cope with the hurly burly of a race.

Post race I attribute my personal rating to each runner. These are based on the B2yor range and although broadly similar to official ratings tend to be lower. This is because the official handicapper tends to rate most open maiden winners around 75 unless they have produced an outstanding performance. Particularly in early season this leads to many over rated animals by OR. I find it difficult to rate 2yos much above the mid 90s. The poor ones are easier to discern whereas the physical difference between a 90 and a 100 horse may be far less obvious and have more to do with mental attitude and heart.

**

 

#2: Hugh’s Methods Explained

You can read Hugh’s Methods at the link HERE>>>>

 

**

 

#3: The First Reviews of the Season. 

Below you can find Hugh’s Reviews for Leicester and Windsor. There are photos to go with these but I am having trouble loading them onto the site. I may or may not find a solution at some point. I wanted to just post a link with a photo doc but the file is too big. Anyway, I will find a solution hopefully.

For now, there is plenty to read through…

 

Title: 7th April Leicester 5f Novice

3.5          Shovel It On

3.25        Airshow, Kick On Kick On, Manco Inca, Straight Ash, Zain Flash

3              Bunch Of Thyme

2.75        Poignant, Jedi Master

2              Rockesbury

Preview – A race which can vary greatly in quality from year to year, but has mainly been contested by small ones the trainers are trying to get an early win out of before any bigger ones come along. The relatively low algo scores tend to back this up, in fact the only two that could be easily ruled out are Rockesbury and Poignant both drawn out wide from trainers who are unknown quantities with 2yos. I might add Manco Inca to these two as he is also out wide, he cost only 6k but both Tuite and Oisin Murphy are capable of getting at least a competent run out of a 2yo.

Others score low due to sires of unknown calibre as yet, such as Red Jazz (Jedi Master) but unless he knocks the eyes out I will find it hard to invest there although drawn ok. Bunch Of Thyme is on the rail and Bill Turner does get his to jump well, Bunch Of Thyme cost £20k (a lot for this stable) and even with 9 better jockeys in the race could well be hard to beat from that position.

This leaves Shovel It On with top score, well drawn but Evans seldom gets his jockey bookings the wrong way around and Brock was 1/59 on 2yos last year, I have to think that Egan (Zain Flash) is the stable no 1 here, also he cost 32k to Shovel’s 5.5k. Zain Flash is drawn 7 so high enough.

Airshow is drawn in the middle with another pilot who does not seem to have mastered the 2yo game yet. Trainer Millman is very hard to predict, however he does get early season debut winners and Master Carpenter won this race for him in 2013, ridden by Andrea Atzeni which may tell a story.

This leaves two Hannon’s Straight Ash (36k drawn 6) and Cox’s Kick On Kick On (52k drawn 4). Both trainers who do not necessarily target fto wins but can be expected to have their horses well drilled and ready to compete for the win. Presumably Move To The Front who ran for Cox in the Brocklesby D2 is a nutcase as even Kirby could not steer him. This seemed atypical.

All this seems to narrow it down as far as Straight Ash, Zain Flash and Kick On Kick On in the first rank and Airshow, Jedi Master and Bunch Of Thyme not being unimagineable winners. Not feasible to make a confident selection without seeing them as any of them could be the ‘better’ physical type.

Kick On Kick On review

I didn’t find the winner of this on the day. It was as suspected very much a bunch of smallish ones. Guilty of being influenced by the market and thought Cox’s needed to be a couple of points shorter.

Kick on Kick On – Not a stand-out in terms of size, I don’t have any notes for him suggesting nothing to grab my attention. Not supported in the market. However, it was run in an ok time, close to Kool Kompany’s on similar going so KOKO certainly has an engine in his small frame. How small can be seen by how far Adam Kirby’s legs are dangling down, although he does have long legs. Hard to get a measure of this one, if he was expected he would certainly have been shorter in the market so maybe he was just the furthest forward of an average bunch. 73

Zain Flash – Plain type, sloping away a bit toward the tail, a bit of substance to his build, should improve a little for the run. Went hard early and faded allowing smaller weaker types to close. 65

Airshow – An ordinary runty little chap, still carrying some winter coat. Missed the break which did not help, stayed on but will always be size limited. Perhaps they can find a little race at Brighton or Bath soonish. 58

Shovel It On – Probably flattered by his finishing position as he stayed on as others faded. One of Dave Evan’s electric mice. Easy to see him whizzing around an aw track 2to. Not tiny like Airshow. 60

Straight Ash – Green in prelims, leggy and looking gangly but with a bit of scope and a frame to fill out in due course. Ran well for a May foal getting outpaced and staying on. 67 with possibly more to come.

Jedi Master – Small, hard to see him improving enough to win an open maiden. 59

Poignant – Another small one, calling beforehand, reasonably fit for this early in the season and seemed to have been well prepared. Improve for some growing and perhaps a bit further. Archie Watson may well be worth watching with his 2yos. 62

Rockesbury – Green, short stride at the walk, not a bad type but unlikely his trainer will be able to extract the necessary. 57

Manco Inca – On his toes, short back, downhill at the shoulder 59

Bunch Of Thyme – Heavily built, didn’t seem to be able to use himself. Probably plain slow. 50

**

 

Date & Title: 9th April Windsor 5f Novice

4.25        Lethal Lunch

3.75        Daddie’s Girl, Give Em A Clump,

3.5          May Remain, Angel Of The South, Controversial Lady

3.25        Declaration Of Love

3              Milton Road

2.5          Rock Of Estonia

.5            Mullion Star, Glimpse Of Dirhams

Preview

Nice to see the first progeny of Lethal Force and Society Rock on the track. Ryan Moore is supreme here and riding 62k Lethal Lunch drawn 5 for the Hannon’s will probably go off odds on. Hard to see Rock Of Estonia forecast 2nd fav on RP being a serious challenger drawn 11 with Spencer up for Charles Hills. A questionable draw, a trainer who seems to have softened his debut approach from a couple of years ago and a jockey who is obsessed with holding them up, not very tempting, although high drawn held up have an above average impact value here. Daddie’s Girl for Millman only cost 5.5k, let’s hope she is bigger than Airshow at Leicester.

The main dangers to LL would seem to be the 170k Angel Of The South, Dean Ivory perfectly capable of a debut winner, good jock, good draw. Give Em A Clump for the wily Welshman, by Camacho who gets very early winners with Kirby up which is always a positive sign for Evans, moderate draw. Paul Cole likes his Windsor winners but one never knows if they are going to be mad as a box of frogs or ready to roll, he has the 26k May Remain from stall 4.

Controversial Lady does not appeal as Stan Moore’s always need a run.

Tom Clover (ex assistant to William Haggas) makes his 2yo training debut with a debutant for Declaration Of War called Declaration of Love. The worst of the draw but it will be interesting to see how well prepared he is.

Lethal Lunch would appear the most likely winner but the Hannon’s never rush theirs to get a debut win at Windsor, both Give Em  A Clump who is likely to be precocious and Angel Of The South as well as to a lesser extent May Remain cannot be discounted. The pictures will tell the story.

Rock Of Estonia review – A bitter pill to swallow as not only did Spencer jump out and go from the front but Charlie Hills had the horse ready. I had also not clocked that these were the same colours as Cotai Glory.

Apologies for the quality of the pictures, a grey day and a new camera.

(This Review, with Photos, can be found HERE>>>)

Rock Of Estonia – Mid medium size, lovely bright chestnut, best stride of any in the paddock and good muscling on the rump, still carrying some condition, nicest example but Spencer and Hills fto put me off. Kept rugged until last second. Won under hands and heels 80 possibly better.

Angel Of the South – Lightly made grey filly, well-proportioned if a fraction tubular. Not looking fully tuned but seems to have plenty of speed. Slightly harder ridden than Rock Of E. 77

Daddies Girl – Smaller filly, good compact shape. One of those whose proximity to the front two has one wondering if they can be all that. Small ready type, some improvement still to come but will struggle against bigger girls. 66

Declaration Of Love – just under med size for time of year. An opportunity here to assess how Tom Clover would turn out his 2yos. DoL looked as fit as anything in the paddock, was well behaved and ran a competent race from a wide draw jumping well and tracking the winner until 2f out under hands and heels 71

May Remain – Not great pictures. Med size, still carrying some fat but a better type than he was allowed to show here. Missed break then given an all action bumping up and down flailing about ride by Luke Morris. At least he didn’t start walloping the colt from way too high a la all weather. All this action led to the poor debutant running up the back of Angel Of the South on a couple of occasions as they were both held in on the rail. A disappointing ride that will not have given this baby the good experience a debut run should be. It is worth watching the race to see the contrast between Pat Cosgrave (Declarationoflove) or Ryan Moore (Lethal Lunch) and Luke Morris to see how a 2yo debutant should be handled. Improve from here 75

Milton Road – Lower medium, compact and quite strongly made. Still a bit woolly and not fully tuned. Ran a competent race and should be competitive at a small track nto. 70

Lethal Lunch – Mid medium, looked a bit lifeless in the paddock but Hannon’s are often laid back. Not the stride of the winner and seemed a bit green, hanging both ways at times. Never asked more than to learn the game by Ryan. Improve nto but by how much I am not sure. I would have expected a place here if this is going to be anything more than a nursery candidate. Worth another chance but probably no better than 70.

Controversial Lady – Small and modest looking filly. Typical Stan Moore debut. 60

Give Em A Clump – Another kept rugged and hard to assess, looks a bit lacking behind. Ran very green and never put in race, attempts by Kirby to hit him looked like airshots. Enough size to think he is better than this but hard to come to a verdict given how badly he ran. Might be ok but 65 for now is flattering what he showed here.

Glimpse Of Dirhams – Tiny, looked fairly fit, 50

Mullion Star – Ok build, medium, looked well but ran as M Madgwick’s do. Often he has one out early that looks as though it might make up into something but he’s only had 2 2yo winners since 2002 so its not worth paying to find out. 63

**

That is all for now.

The aim will be to try and post a review from the previous week’s action at the start of each week, on the Monday or Tuesday.

**

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • Great stuff Hugh. Will follow with interest.
    Paul

    blueboy199 11/04/17 1:48 PM Reply


  • Hi Hugh, Firstly thanks for taking the time to post on here, I’ve read your first few posts with interest and was curious about your shortlisting algorithm so its great that this blog explains that in detail.

    One question if i may; after shortlisting, your paddock analysis is obviously key to what you decide to back. How did you develop the understanding of the physical and mental characteristics that display if a horse is ready to put on a good performances on that specific day?

    Its an area i’m interested to learn more on but not sure where to start, so if you have any links to any useful literature that would be great.

    Thanks
    JA

    Jackadam 11/04/17 1:56 PM Reply


    • Hi JA, best I can do is refer you to the anthology or articles section on B2yor.co.uk. Here’s a link.
      http://www.b2yor.co.uk/by2or_prev_explain.htm

      As to how to develop the understanding, I think if you spend enough time watching them eventually it gets absorbed. It is still easy to get fooled by immature behaviour, coltishness, calling etc and be put off a fine specimen. One who stood out a mile last year in the paddock was Escobar on debut, he did everything wrong, colty, shouting, rearing but he never really looked that upset. He just wanted everyone to know he was the boss and did he show it on the track. No easy way ‘see’ it, I still make embarrassing mistakes on a regular basis.
      Hugh

      alpha2 11/04/17 5:42 PM Reply


  • Ng10 1DT

    Peter nottingham 11/04/17 4:12 PM Reply


  • Excellent stuff, Hugh.

    Re May Remain is there a chance that a ‘bad’ experience FTO could have a lasting (negative) mental impact? One that could take a few more races to get over? Or does your experience suggest this is unlikely?

    Stephen Cross 11/04/17 5:48 PM Reply


    • I hope it wasn’t that bad, as long as he didn’t get frightened. I wouldn’t worry about it nto but would like to see a more sympathtic pilot up. Last year he used Crowley, De Sousa and JPS on his best ones and Morris just occasionally. Same pilot gave a scrappy ride to Our Man In Havana at Lingfield today.
      Hugh

      alpha2 11/04/17 7:13 PM Reply


  • A great piece & addition to site .Looking forward to the subsequent articles. Very informative.

    David Black 12/04/17 8:25 AM Reply


  • Hi Hugh,
    I really want to get into 2 year old racing I have always thought that you could have an edge
    if you knew what you were looking for and could attend racing regularly.

    I specialise in claimers as I think there are a lot of false favourites in them.

    I think CORINTHIA KNIGHT looked a useful early type
    a January foal he looked very professional on debut and his breeding suggests he will get 6f maybe even 7 as a two year old.

    His trainer Archie Watson is one of the up and coming trainers I like and he certainly knows how to get one ready the time of 58.87 wasn’t bad for a debutant Juvenile and stands up pro rata.
    to the class 5 handicap winner in the 3 year old contest. .35 on a second slow per furlong against
    angel of Darkness .39 seconds per furlong slow.
    EAGLE CREEK ran .21 seconds per furlong slow in the mile maiden and that also looks a horse to follow.

    Oisen Murphy is one of my favourite jockeys with two year old as if the trainer
    has them ready and he is on they make few mistakes
    Spencer on the other hand I avoid like the plague as his Mo seems to be give then an easy fto

    Black Orange I think will struggle to win a race and the other horse in the race to note was CROWNTHORPE
    who ran ultra green and will improve

    peter walker 12/04/17 8:39 AM Reply


  • Hello Hugh,
    Have you any knowledge of a Mark Prescott 2 year old called True North?

    Roger Crabb 12/04/17 12:32 PM Reply


    • The sire is Henrythenavigator and the dam is cosmic fire

      There is bundles of stamina on the dams side and this one looks a typical
      Prescott stayer, expect him to run three back end 7f- mile maidens
      and be set up for staying handicaps as a three year old.

      if you want the full pedigree.
      pedigreequery.com
      is a good site to visit

      just go to the home page type in your horses name and you get the horses pedigree back 5 generations
      free
      Regards
      Pete

      Peter Walker 12/04/17 1:31 PM Reply


    • Hello Roger, Peter, No I don’t tend to research the 2yos pre-season as I try not to influence my opinions with that of pundits or stable whispers. As far as Mark Prescott is concerned he is an enigma with 2yos. As Peter says he mostly is planning to run them in 7f races at the back end to obtain a good h’cap mark, however sometimes he runs a more precocious one earlier and they sometimes pop up at great prices.

      Pete, I’d never seen that pedigree query site, sounds good. thanks for that.
      Hugh

      alpha2 12/04/17 6:35 PM Reply


      • The dam side of the Prescott horses gives you a good idea
        if they feature horses like Shirley Heights ,Ardross, Darshaan , Ela-mana-mou
        you can bet they will be 1m4f plus horses.

        if he bring Juveniles out a bit earlier over 6f and there is more speed on the dam side and
        the sire is a sprinter then it could mean business.

        Mark is a very patient man and he is prepared to wait and that gives us punters a clue how to play,
        because a lot of his horses are backward and being set up for three year old careers.
        They can run very free and green in their three losing maidens
        and quite often as three year olds they still take a race or two to hit their stride
        or run a couple of decent races and then throw in a below par effort
        This is usually down to inexperience

        One of his may have had 3-5 runs and still be green while a Sharp Hannon
        Juvenile may be race smart after 1 or 2 runs.

        As Hugh can spot a poor physical the next step is to judge mental maturity
        in a horse.

        Hugh covers the paddock angle so the first thing to look for is at the starting gate.
        An experienced horse will stand quietly while waiting to go in and then load easily
        and break ahead of or with the rest of the field.(MOST OF THE TIME)

        An inexperienced horse will often back away from the stalls turn repeatedly
        and take a bit of loading it isn’t completely wild but apprehensive
        and will often break slowly or jink out sideways when the stalls open.

        The first furlong is worth watching as some inexperienced horses simply haven’t a clue
        what happening and will lose many lengths by either putting its head in the air
        swerving violently across the course pulling the jockeys arms out their socket etc
        just watching the video replays of the races will enable you to watch every horse in the first furlong.
        this is a vital review for backing maidens next time out

        What happened after the first furlong?
        did the horse settle down pick up the bit and start racing
        or did it go from bad to worse and run totally green

        The horse that takes 2 furlongs to settle down but then runs the last 3
        well balanced and strides out with pulling hard are horses to note.

        The all over the place horses need more time and if you think it is one of Hughs good physical types
        then as soon as you see it start knuckling down from the start its early form can be ignored.

        So what are we looking for.
        1 A horse who is lively and alert at the start but goes in fairly quickly
        2 breaks at least with the pack coming out of the stalls straight without the Jockey
        pushing for all his life to get the horse moving
        3 head balance, watch older experienced classic horses or top class jumpers and you will
        see that when they run their head is perfectly still and balanced looking straight forward
        with no excessive pulling or worse throwing their head from side to side.
        this point alone will keep you from backing loads of losers.

        4 bends. for the green horse courses with bends eg Lingfield
        can spell disaster where they can run so wide off the bend all chance is lost
        I owned a horse call oniz tiptoes and on his 2nd flat run he ran at Lingfield
        he ran so wide he was nearly in the car park.
        5 Final furlong the green or nervous horse will often back off a duel in the final furlong
        the mentally mature horse will simply out battle the green one in a head to head
        6 pulling up, watch after the finish line horses that haven’t given their all will have plenty of energy left and will often take a fair time to pull up.
        A horse that has given everything will often stop very quickly after the winning line
        if you see a horse pull up very quickly and then it is out again within a week beware this really
        is relevant in 7f to 10f races as they are distances that are beyond sprints but not stayers
        sometimes a horse has to really go to the limit at these distances
        a quick pull up after the line is a major negative if the it returns quickly

        7 After the race check the horses coming in.
        if the horse in the winners enclosure is breathing very heavily that is a sign they were either unfit and taking a long time to get their breath back(remember after the race the horse walks to the winners enclosure)
        so if he hasn’t got his breath back by then it isn’t a good sign.
        Same as humans if you are unfit it will take you five minutes to recover
        sitting down after your sprint for the bus.
        When you are fit you will recover more quickly no matter how hard you sprinted.
        This horse could be a lot fitter next time or it could have a possible breathing issue
        and run a string of bad races
        best bet is to watch it next time if it runs another stinker then steer clear
        if it runs much better then a good sign it is getting fitter and winning is possible in the next couple of races

        8 listening to the jockeys comments to the trainer
        what the trainers and jockeys tell the press and public is often miles away from what
        they tell each other.
        I have been in the paddock when the jockey told the trainer
        that his horse who finished third would have won if he hadn’t been cut up on the final bend
        the trainer stated after the race that the horse pulled hard
        and needed better ground.
        next time out it won easily.

        9. times.
        times against the standard can be false readings.
        due to head winds rail movements false ground reports etc
        what I like is pro rata ratings against other races on the card
        eg if your juvenile runs 5 seconds slow over 5f
        and an older class 3 handicap over 6f is run 6 seconds slow
        then both were 1 second a furlong slower then the standard time
        so that would make the Juveniles time very good
        so this example
        juvenile run 5f 2.50 seconds slow of the course standard = .50 second per furlong slower than standard
        class 4 handicapper age 4 run 7f 2.85 seconds slower than standard =.409 seconds per furlong slower than standard
        this would still be a good Juvenile performance
        races above 7f to be ignored as the early pace could have been a crawl and time is not relevant
        times in distance races are open to jockey tactics
        The times in sprints are dominate by weather, going, early pace
        and class. a class 5 handicap sprinter can often run a very fast time but upped in grade
        lacks the early pace and runs very much slower.
        rather like dog racing.

        10 Jockey inexperienced jockey on inexperienced horse = no hoper
        Experienced jockeys can often be running a horse for experience
        and their prime aim is to teach the horse how to race
        so they wont worry about break getting the horse in a winning position or
        racing it out to win
        The trainers instruction will have a bearing if a top jockey is told
        the horse needs to learn than that’s what it will do.
        if he is told the horse is super sharp and ready to win then it will be ridden that way
        so note any horse apprentice ridden FTO and then a pro takes over for its second race
        if money starts coming for it review the horses first run for the apprentice.

        hope this helps any would be player

        Peter walker 13/04/17 9:50 AM Reply


        • Cracker of a read that Peter, super stuff! I hope from time to time you may highlight the odd horse who catches your eye etc! 🙂

          Josh 13/04/17 9:56 AM Reply


          • will do.

            peter walker 13/04/17 10:13 AM Reply


          • football Peruvian premier league Saturday 19.00 uk time

            AYACUCHO v ACADEMA CANTALAO
            back AYACUCHO at evens with bet365

            AYACUCHO is at 2761 meters altitude while ACADEMA are based in Barranca at sea level
            ACADEMA played away last week to another lowland team UNIVERSIDAD SAN MARCO so they will have only 5 days to acclimatise to 2761 Meters.
            in February AYACUCHO went to ACADEMA and won 3-1 and with the altitude
            now in their favour I estimate they are 4/6 chances
            evens therefore is in my opinion a decent price to play.

            peter walker 21/04/17 9:59 AM Reply


  • Tip for on course punters.
    Hugh is obviously a super judge of horses and can also spot bad behaviour
    and major negatives in the paddock.

    but I find the best time to look at the horses is in the pre parade ring
    on cold miserable days

    Lingfield is my nearest course and on a/w days in the winter
    when it is cold and blustery I have been on the rails at the pre parade ring
    and spotted favourites sweating up or behaving badly and there hasn’t been another soul
    present.
    in the modern world most people are concentrated on what is happening
    in the very near future so a visit to the pre parade is a good idea
    you just note what you see.
    the horse you don’t like can be the even money favourite or 100/1 but you judge what you see not
    what you think you may see, for the inexperienced player this is good training.
    for people with betfair accounts this is a good way of playing
    if you see a 6/4 chance really giving trouble in the pre parade ring you can bet your life when it hits the main paddock it is only going to get worse and that stage
    the bookies paddock reps and expert paddock men will have clocked it and the price will get bigger but if you have already laid the horse at 6/4 easy to trade out at a bigger price
    remember the worse the weather the less people turn up pre parade.

    As you are only interested in the races on the card for inexperienced horse
    plenty of time to get a position as soon as the first horse hits pre parade.

    for any inexperience punter who likes to go racing but isn’t a form expert
    this is a great first step.
    You might not be as good a judge or horse as an expert
    but you may see a badly behaved horse first, sometimes better to be first
    than be right at the same time as another player/s.
    Remember to take your hats gloves and woolly vest plus a decent fold up brolly
    who knows you may end up wet and bedraggled but a few quid richer

    peter walker 13/04/17 11:08 AM Reply


    • first time blinkers positive or negative

      Some racing experts like Nick Mordin think Blinkers are a major disadvantage
      first time.
      some trainers think first time blinkers can really add buzz to a horse and swear by them

      The stats have FTB as a negative on the whole but what is the real truth

      Well it is a world where we like stats and it is easy to say that percentage wise
      FTB isn’t good but why

      The answer is the effect Blinkers have on a horse.
      They allow only front on vision so the horse doesn’t know what is going on beside it or behind it
      as a herd animal this can be pretty scary
      and a slightly nervous horse can take off like a bat out of hell and be knackered come the end part of the race
      a horse lacking in concentration may be pepped up and keep it mind on the job.
      but a strong reason why the stats are stacked against the FTB horse is a lot of useless, slow or animals long past their best are fitted with blinkers in a desperate try to get some improvement of course useless horses
      are useless horse and not even dynamite can make then better

      so the rule of blinkers first time is
      1 if the horse supporting FTB is fractious or acting frightened then it is highly likely to go like hell from the gate and fall in a hole finishing tailed off
      these types are ideal for in running place lays as the public see a well fancied horse clear and they
      will play them pretty short in the place market.
      2 if a older horse In FTB is slouching around the paddock looking uninterested this is another bad sign
      not even being able to see what is going on around him has livened him up
      so unlikely to have a positive effect.
      3 the main positive a young horse who has shown wayward signs in the past but on the fitting of blinkers
      seems alert and positive without being in a panic.
      you never really know until the race is on
      The time to support these horses is when they lie up 2nd 3rd or 4th
      if they lead they can be scared and blow up
      dropped right out and they may still be lacking concentration
      2nd to 4th after a furlong suggests they have concentrated enough to get a decent early position
      without running away with fear in front
      all you need then is to check out head carriage and if it is balanced and steady
      then you get on in running

      peter walker 13/04/17 12:05 PM Reply


      • Would you consider the same things for a horse wearing first-time visor, rather than first-time blinkers?

        Matt 14/04/17 10:31 AM Reply


        • cheek pieces visors and blinkers are all used for the same purpose
          cheek pieces cut out a small part of peripheral vision.
          visors have holes drilled into the cups to allow some and blinkers allow
          only straight on sight

          so a horse who wore a first time visor could be freaked out or concentrate more
          but if it already tried first time blinkers then it is going to see more
          in a visor

          but if I see a trainer trying one thing after another.
          cheek pieces blinkers visors for vision

          earplugs or hoods to block out sounds

          tongue straps to help the horse breath.

          on they use special bits to make the horse more steerable
          them it is usually a sign of the horse is rubbish and they are desperate to try anything.

          of course one of the aids could make all the difference
          but the best bet(or not to bet)
          is if you see a horse try any of these first time leave them alone betting wise and just watch how it runs.

          if you can watch old videos on at the races then watch its last run without any new gear and then see if it runs better with something new
          but I think it is telling in low grade races a lot of the runners will be kitted out with something but in the better races only 1 or two

          take Brighton tonight
          the 6.35 a class 5 handicap 6 of the 8 runners have some sort of aid
          in the class 2 at Kempton 3.45 only 2 of the 10 have aids

          2 and 3 year old races
          as a rule have less aids
          older horses by and large seem to attract trainers need to tinker
          4.10 newton abbot 8 of the 11 have some sort of aid.

          if the horse has shown in the past decent form with an aid not a strong
          reason to write off his chances.

          also in low grade races it is the punting trainers chance to set up a coup
          so when they do the name of the game is to keep average punters in the dark
          so every opportunity will be taken to mislead the betting public

          grade 1 are the opposite ultra competitive and covered to death by the media
          and getting horse above their true odds is hard.

          the main challenge to punters is to bet less
          but when you do go in be well researched and confident.

          if you are a £10 punter pass 5 fancies and then have £50
          on a well researched bet
          a £100 bettor have £500 etc

          because the stake means something to you win or lose
          you will do the yards

          always pick your own bet, if you take a tip from someone else and you lose a large bet then you are disappointed if you make your own selection
          you can’t complain only state your judgement was wrong and no one else is at fault
          or course take advise on methods but make the bet yours

          i will give you two lines that may help
          Football altitude.
          big teams going to Bolivis ecuador and mexico are at a massive disadvantage
          if they have played at home within 7 days

          eg Argentina played chile at home on a thursday and 5 days later went to bolivia and lost 2-0 they just didn’t have time to acclimatize to the very high altitude in la paz.
          all world cup games coming up can be found on soccerway.com.

          for me the best horse races to concentrate on are flat race claimers
          beware the favourite who is often the top rated horse but ran a stinker last time and has never won at the distance
          eg the favourite last week in the claimer won by Fingals cave
          had run in a grade 2 but ran a horror race last time and had never won
          over 7 furlongs.

          Fingals Cave had won last time out over 7f
          had 4 wins over the distance and was only rated 6lbs worse than the favourite
          and with a 7lb claimer up(who rode him when he won lto)
          there was nothing in it
          FC went off 11/4 the fav 10/11
          the bet was easy to make

          peter walker 15/04/17 4:19 PM Reply


          • USA travel to The Aztec stadium soon for a world cup qualifier
            but the Americans are nothing but thorough because
            They have a 9 day training camp in Denver at high altitude
            prior to the match playing Trinidad and Tobago in Denver during that period
            so in theory that should make them well acclimatised to the altitude in Mexico

            so as you can see they have the luxury of being prepared(how good that will be as they have
            a 0-2-10 record in the aztec stadium) but they are working on it
            most teams don’t have this chance but it does show the importance of acclimation.

            even in domestic leagues altitude teams can hold a strong home advantage over
            low land visiting teams

            on the head websites check out the record of Blooming in the Bolivian league
            when they visit Bolivar or The Strongest who are based in la Paz.
            I think you will find the stats pretty compelling

            peter walker 18/04/17 1:09 PM Reply


            • Really interesting and informative post. Thank you!

              Matt 19/04/17 7:25 PM Reply


              • In the Bolivian league this Saturday The Strongest take on Guabira
                in La Paz

                la paz is at 3600 meters altitude and Guabira play there matches at sea level
                Guabira are in front of the Strongest in the Bolivian premier division
                but there record at Altitude venues is very poor
                last week they lost 0-2 in Potosi (3960 meters) and I think they have little chance of going to la paz
                and winning but for the ideal play you would have wanted to see Guabira playing their last game at home.

                they went to Potosi last week and have stayed at altitude for 12 days now so the acclimatisation
                will see them perform better than if they had only had 4/5days to prepare.

                if you look at the bolivian fixtures(on soccerway) you see Blooming who are the best lowland team
                have 5 away games on the trot against high altitude teams
                this is not by accident they are long established in the premier division and
                they have complained that going to altitude after home games puts them at a major disadvantage
                and they have been allocated a friendly fixture list

                Guabira are new to the premier league and their fixtures are not so altitude friendly

                bolivian league
                1 BLOOMING 500METERS
                2 BOLIVAR 3600METERS
                3 THE STRONGEST 3600 METERS
                4 GUABIRA 200 METERS
                5 REAL POTOSI 3960 METERS
                6 SAN HOSE 3870 METERS
                7 NACIONAL POTOSI 3960 METERS
                8 ORIENTE PETROLORO 50 METERS
                9 WILSTERMANN 2558 METERS
                10 SPORTS BOYS 339 METERS
                11 CLUB UNIVERSITARIO 2810 METERS
                12 PETROLERO YACUIBA 650 METERS

                NOTE THERE ARE 5 TEAMS with grounds over 3600 meters
                2 teams between 2500 and 3000
                and 5 teams below 700 meters
                when the lowland teams go to the 5 over 3600 meters altitude
                venues their chance are slim but if their last game was at home with 7 days
                the acclimatisation will be short and their chance are almost nil
                Guabira visit to the strongest will be interesting as they have had that extra time to get ready
                the strongest have an awesome records at home against the lowland teams
                and if the lowland team have played at home within 7 days they lose very very rarely

                Last night Santos went to Santa fe in Columbia and packed their defence and scrambled a 0-0 draw
                santa fe play at 2640 meters and Santos knew they would be struggling in an open game
                but the edge they had was the fact that their last game was 11 days ago
                so they flew straight to Bogota and had 10 day to acclimatise
                Santos the superb Brazilian flair team had 2 shots in the whole game
                but more importantly santa fe only had 4 in the whole match
                one of the most boring games you will ever see but for Santos job done.

                Santa fe played as if they didn’t believe in their advantage
                and were happy with a draw against the great team

                The copa libadores is south Americas champions league and Santos prepared well
                they are in an interesting group with two altitude teams and two lowland teams
                Santos still have to go to LA PAZ to play the strongest but by then they should have enough points to go through.

                if Santos are through and the Strongest need to win then I think there will be only one result

                the Peruvian league is split into two groups of 8
                in group 2 sport huyancao play at 3700 meters
                real carilaso 3554 meters and utc cajamaca 2750 comerciates un 2788
                the other 4 teams in the section play at sea level

                In group 1 melgar 2335 sports Rosario 3052 univ comercio 2750
                Ayacucho 2751 are the altitude teams
                sporting crystal, univ san marc, academa cantalao and allianza athletico
                are all low land teams
                crystal from lima are the best team but the same rules apply if any of the low teams go to altitude
                and their last game was at home within a week they will struggle

                sport huyancano record is interesting away they are dire but at home they
                have an awesome record but that is even better when you take out the other teams from altitude
                and lowland teams who have had time to acclimatise
                either with a 10day+ break since their last game or their last match was away to another altitude team
                lowland teams who played their last game at home within 7 days have a up hill struggle when the go to 3700 meters

                in Ecuador the best two teams are Emelec and Delfin
                both lowland based
                Barcelona fuerz amarilla river Ecuador are the other three lowland teams

                Universidad Catolica 2850 meters
                indediente de valle 2510
                deportivo Cuenca 2650
                ldu quito 2850
                el nacional 2850
                clan juvenile 2510
                are the altitude teams.

                DELFIN are top or the league with a 6 -4-0 record
                and have drawn at several high altitude venues
                packing their defence and keeping running down to a minimum
                at home their superior ability has seen them head the league
                the coach has done his home work and they are a very strong defensive outfit.

                COLUMBIA
                no 3000 meter teams
                but
                patrotas boyaca 2820
                santa fe 2640
                la eqiudad 2640
                millionares 2640
                deportivo pasto 2527

                are tough placed for jaquires de loco at 18 meters
                and Alianz petrolara 15 meters to go

                I like the following senerio
                lowland team away to altitude team when they play a home game within 7 days
                and have a record of conceding goals no matter how many they score
                if they are an attacking team who like to push forward then altitude will really find them out
                the more open the game the better for the home team
                if the record of the low land team on their travels shows a lot of 0-0 and 1-0 results
                you can bet your life they will put 11 men behind the ball and may come away with
                a 0-0 or even snatch a 1-0 on the break.

                interestingly the altitude teams often only win by 1-0 2-0 etc
                in tight games but sometimes if they get an early goal or two and the lowland away team have to come out and play
                then they can really look down the barrel of a 5 goal plus thrashing
                if playing correct scores play 0-0 1-0 2-0 and over 4.5 goals and over 5.5 goals

                peter walker 20/04/17 9:48 AM Reply


  • Hi Peter, you are best posting these excellent comments under that day’s Free Daily post I think- I fear not many people will be reading them when you post here as this is an old post.
    Josh

    Josh 21/04/17 10:09 AM Reply


    • will do, AYACUCHO are now 7/10 on bet365
      so I hope someone picked up my review

      peter walker 21/04/17 11:47 AM Reply


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