Members Daily Post: 11/04/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps

Exeter 

3.50-

Tom Neary (all hncps + hncp chase) G3 13/2

Only Gorgeous (hncp chase) 14,30 11/1

4.20 –

Dragoon Guard (all hncps + hncp hurdle)  14,30 H3 5/1

Redbridge Miller (hncp hurdle + micro distance) 25/1

4.50 –

Poisoned Berry (hncp hurdle) H3 10/1 (RP10/1+ Qual)

Craiganee (hncp hurdle + micro distance) 10/1

 

Flat 

Pontefract 

2.10 –

House of Commons (micro class) 11/1

Desert Rule (micro 90 days)  14 14/1

3.40 –

La Fritillaire (all hncps) G1 8/1

Dream Serenade (micro class) G1 (both same rating) 25/1 (RP10/1+ Qual)

4.10 – Snoano (micro TJC) 16/1

5.10 – Off Art (mircro TJC) 4/1

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day… (test: 6/20, +32 points)

4.20 Exeter – Redbridge Miller – 1 point win – 25/1

This one makes handicap hurdle debut and takes a step up in trip on a stiff track. He is young, unexposed, and could be anything – including not good enough to win from this opening mark. I was initially put off because in the last two years the trainer is 0/8,0p with handicap hurdle debutants- but in the last 5 years he is 1/22,2 places, +12 points SP, which suggests that winner was a massive price. So, one may drop in again, and if you are going to take a stab you want a decent price. The market isn’t really a guide for his either, with winners at all odds through to 40/1 in handicap hurdles, and some decent enough place stats. He has winners/placed horses returning after breaks, and is 0/15,5p at Exeter with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off. The jockey has yet to ride a handicap hurdle winner for the trainer but has a few places, and does ride this track well enough. My head says he probably isn’t good enough, but at this price, given the profile, I couldn’t resist. If he is good enough to place in this field, he is good enough to win- and my gut says it may be all or nothing here, as likely to be struggling early as to winning, so win only may be best. But, knowing me he will now run a stormer in second!

 

Two ‘RP10/1+’ qualifiers as I write, if you follow that strategy (you should, as a minimum!), with the possibility of La Fritillair drifting to 11.00+ on BFSP, Tom Neary may do the same. Of course you may back the former anyway as he is G1.

I should note that I am backing the Flat qualifiers on the ‘RP10/1+’ angle as a minimum, just for not as much as I back the jumps ones which are proven for me- I am cautious but yesterday was a confidence boost that with any luck the Flat will follow in the footsteps of the Jumps stats.

 

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

Results… I am wading my way through the ratings pointers spreadsheet and will complete part two of the results post Tuesday.

I have looked at Geegeez… (2017 up to end of March, main jumps stats)

Geegeez Top Rated: 80 bets / 19 wins / 24% sr / +19 BFSP / +30 Early odds/Bog

Geegeez Top 3 Rated (so in effect 2nd or 3rd) : 127 bets / 22 wins / +56 BFSP / +54 Early/Bog

That means that combined, Geegeez Ratings Pointers Horses for 2017/end March are…

207 bets / 41 wins / 20% sr / +75 BFSP / +84 Early/Bog

IMPORTANT: What that means, looking at the total profits for all ratings pointers, is that HorseRaceBase qualifiers are -26 points to Early prices, and -14 BFSP.

There have been 331 total ratings pointers qualifiers (many multiple) for total profits of +57 early, +61 BFSP, up to end of March.

That would indicate if you just want to back any ratings pointers horses blind, that ignoring HRB is an option- if betting systematically – clearly this is fewer bets and a much increased ROI, by just focusing on Geegeez Speed.

I need to go through HRB and 10/1+, but I suspect that may be the only time they are worth backing. And also different permutations such as doubel qualified, G1+H3, H1+G3, H3+G3  for example.

Anyway, do with that as you please, any questions, fire away.

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4. Hobbs/April (14/1<)

(from the last monthly research report- I will re post the master post of those asap)

2.50 Exet – Wishful Dreaming

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That is all for today.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Josh, i’ve been running a trial (just a basic one at that) on the HRB ratings since Jan 1st this year, I’ve been tracking all top rated (in all races where a min. 75% of runners have a previous run to rate) on HRB (all codes) who’s SP is 10-1 or higher, the stats currently read (not including todays runners);-

    131 bets – 13 wins – 17 places (30 places inc wins) – +51 at SP

    Jan – 43 – 6 – 7 = +42 @sp
    Feb – 37 – 1 – 4 = –26 @sp
    Mar – 26 – 5 – 4 = +42 @sp
    Apr – 24 – 1 – 2 = –7 @sp

    Mark C 10/04/17 7:47 PM Reply


    • I use HRB ratings all the time, but I back the negative rated horses rather than the obvious top rated selections

      I back often 2 – 4 per race…yesterday Too Many Chiefs was my first winner @ 12/1..two others I backed were Scotswell @ 5/1 and Welcome Ben @ 12/1

      Irish meetings often give me my best priced winners, Prince Garyantle @ 10/1 was my best yesterday…BUT I do have up to 4 bets per race

      What I do ignore are the top-rated from the TOTAL column, yesterday 2 winners only from the 4 meetings …..I ignore them simply because most of the time the prices are too short, quite often low-priced favourites

      I only concentrate on Lr (last run), Trn (Trainer) & Tdy (Today)…that’s where the winners are hiding but they don’t jump out at you, hence my multiple bets per race….you will not win using HRB top-rated figures….SP ‘s are so cramped by the bookies these days you need to find a back-door to make a profit ….top rated HRB is not the way

      Norman Stewart 11/04/17 8:38 AM Reply


      • Hi Norman, yep you seem to have a decent approach for your own use of HRB ratings…

        but clearly I have to disagree with your final comment, as would Mark.. given that on his figures/approach 10/1+ Top Rated (total) that qual against my stats look a decent 13/131, +51 BFSP, 39% ROI isn’t too shabby, and if that 10% SR can be maintained that will only ever make money!

        I agree with your general point and often HRB pointers on my stats are shorter prices and the evidence suggest Geegeez Speed are clearly not factored into any prices- which makes sense given they are not in wide circulation- well the method behind them isnt.

        But the evidence suggests that on these pages at least, there is a way to profit from Top Rated general ratings, clearly backing them all blind generally, in every race every day, outwith the qualifiers on this page, is a quick way to the betting oblivion.

        Josh

        Josh 11/04/17 8:48 AM Reply


        • Hi Josh

          just had a quick check back through my records for part of this year’s results

          I can find 8 winners since 1st March that won in double figures (10/1 +), don’t know how many bets would have been made to back each of these winners, and each winner was the top-rated “Total” horse

          5 races Handicaps, other 3 obviously non-handicaps with a couple of the winners in Ireland…..none of the 8 winners was returned at 20/1 or bigger

          but I would still argue the point that quoting 13/131 win figures is still a hell of a lot of losing bets (118 losers)….how many times is your confidence in the idea going to bounce off rock-bottom with such a string of losers, the losing run could be enormous

          longest break 3rd – 17th March …..and last winner Wefait @ 16/1 non-handicap…1st April…NOT the most appropriate of dates for this plan……and if you miss 1 or 2 winners for whatever reason….sorry, but the number of losers just makes me pull back from it

          Norman Stewart 11/04/17 9:41 AM Reply


          • Oh yea for sure… yep those stats nothing to do with my figures, which dawned on me after my second coffee! I agree with your general point – and just looking at my own TTP HRB Top Rated, I am not sure if there has been a single 10/1+ qual, but just about to have another look-
            Yep losing runs will be severe at some point with such an approach and Mark appears to be trialing it for that reason, will be interesting if it continues.
            That is why I advised the approaches I do- long losing runs, and you would hit some of 40+ with a SR like that, combined as you say, with missing the odd winner, mean that for many it isn’t workable- betting is mainly about psychology/mindset and you have to go with an approach that suits you, otherwise there is no point. Some want higher SRs, lower losing runs, others wont mind massive losing runs if long term ROI fine etc.
            Josh

            Josh 11/04/17 9:47 AM Reply


            • As an idea to improve the “mindset” of following a train of thought to the bitter end….how does comparing profit made betting with BFSP ….against the number of losing bets….bit left field I know but think about it

              13/131 wins gives +59 pts BFSP….losers 118

              now try to create an an idea/plan that gives you a minimum +118 BFSP….so always using your number of losers as the yardstick/bottom line…..you wrote earlier of 28/300 wins = +141 BFSP but you are getting 272 losers and again the total is depressing…..now look for an idea that gives you +272 BFSP….a smile crosses your face and the wallet begins to bulge…its pleased to see you !

              Norman Stewart 11/04/17 10:22 AM Reply


    • Thanks Mark, very interesting and food for thought. That may well be the best way to profit from all HRB ratings- I am just about to dive back into the spreadsheet at see what else I can dig up. But, that looks a decent approach moving forwards, be interesting how it does on the flat. Clearly with a 10% win SR there will be bumpy runs at times,but you can’t moan at that ROI, and given it is based on 10/1+ SP, IF 10% win SR is maintained, for as long at HRB method doesn’t change, in theory that will only ever make money! That is always exciting. (and provided I don’t forget my approach to researching the stats!)

      I will have a look at HRB Top Rated with my own ’10/1+’ method, and I should have a look at NHF runners in general also.

      Josh 11/04/17 8:59 AM Reply


    • (sorry, clearly too early for me- that is nothing to do with my stats is it!) But very interesting results none the less, will see how my own HRB 10/1+ compare, although not too many of those I don’t think.

      Josh 11/04/17 9:38 AM Reply


  • Interested in results for the other qualifiers (non HRB or GeeGeez)

    Wolf 10/04/17 7:50 PM Reply


    • Hi Wolf, yep so looking at the results update part 1 and comparing etc.. I think.. up to end of March for 2017 to date…

      All quals: 681 bets / 97 wins / +120 Early / +93 BFSP

      Ratings Pointers: 321 bets / 62 wins / +58 early / +58 BFSP

      Subtracting RPs from All would then leave totals for all ‘non ratings pointer horses’…

      360 bets / 35 wins / +62 early / +35 BFSP

      So,all ratings pointers operate at a 19% win SR, and a 18% ROI on BFSP , against non ratings pointers horses… of a 10% win SR, +10% ROI to BFSP.

      As I have always said, backing all qualifiers is profitable, just it is a hell of a lot of bets, a low win %, a lower roi, and losing runs much more severe etc.

      Now, if we look at all 10/1+ qualifiers.. (based on my approach, early morning + 11.00 BFSP for drifters)

      All 10/1+ : 300 bets / 28 wins / +141 BFSP

      #1 advised strat- ‘RP 10/1+’ : 81 bets / 11 wins / +85 BFSP

      So, non Ratings Pointers horses 10/1+ are:

      219 bets / 17 wins / +56 BFSP…

      Given all non ratings pointers horses are +35 BFSP, that would indicate that for ‘non ratings pointer’ horses, profit wise, definitely best focusing on those 10/1+. They are a 25% ROI, against ‘all non ratings pointers’ ROI of 10%.

      My aim really is to find the best way to profit from the ‘non RP 10/1+’ qualifiers and to try and back as many of those as possible from as few bets as possible.

      I will look at Non RPs 20/1+, as that may well be interesting also.

      Hope that may be of some use. Josh

      Josh 11/04/17 8:42 AM Reply


  • BF or not BF?
    as somebody who places my bets late at night or early mornings (i’m out 8-12 most mornings as we care for elderly parents) recently i seem to be losing badly on prices , sods law seems to be working overtime and if my order is taken it drifts and if i pitch to high i miss the bigger price, i.e. 32’s available on Dream Serenade left order for 36 not taken now 21, Dragoon Guard 5.4 available last night left order for 6.4 taken now 7.6. yesterday i lost out on all winning bets with SP higher than price i got.
    would it be more profitable to just take BFSP or BOG on somewhere like Skybet any stats available?

    martin whittle 11/04/17 7:42 AM Reply


    • One of the many imponderables in this game! That is why i record to BFSP now, as that is the only price that everyone can get – whether that is due to no more bookie accounts,or indeed the time you have to place bets etc. Sounds like you will be setting prices when the liquidity is very low, and it is a guessing game as to what may get matched or not.
      It all tends to even out over time, every now and then you will back a horse at BFSP sent off 40s, that is 20s BOG, and that makes up for missing the odd crashed price etc. It isn’t an exact science sadly. A few of our bigger priced winners have drifted from 8s/10s in the morning with bookies-
      Take Bescott Springs, went from 8s morning, to 19.00 BFSP… St Saviour something similar, 8s mornings to 19,00 BFSP or thereabouts.
      It is hard to try and make a judgement, at least BFSP takes that away.
      Trying to guess if a horse may crash is a fun game- I suppose those with unexposed profiles, and that are doing something different – reasons for why the yard/connections may be about to pile in.

      I would try not to get too worked up over it – worst case you have BFSP, and if you can beat that over time by taking odd bigger price every now and then, that’s a bonus.

      Josh 11/04/17 8:54 AM Reply


      • i think for now i’m just going to leave very high orders and take BFSP and if any get matched it’s a bonus.

        martin whittle 11/04/17 10:38 AM Reply


  • Rockwood @ 40/1 makes it 6 winners for me today

    Norman Stewart 11/04/17 5:16 PM Reply


    • That’s good to know.

      Neil 11/04/17 5:29 PM Reply


      • Now now 🙂

        Josh 11/04/17 6:02 PM Reply


      • Yes, I understand

        Norman 11/04/17 10:01 PM Reply


        • Ha! Sorry for being a smartarse Norman 🙂

          Neil 12/04/17 4:29 PM Reply


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