Free Daily Post: 09/04/17 (complete)

A quiet day today. 

That was a superb three days. +20 points on the tips from 6 races takes us to around the +91 point mark since the start of the Festival, and in under one month. Madness. I won’t be keeping that up but the coffers are full for the next cold spell. In general my stats shortlisting approach has worked wonders and long may it continue. For my own pride/vanity I would like to find the National winner one of these years! Such a shame One For Arthur hadn’t had a prep run in the last 61 days!! That was some stats buster,and a few like that have been broken in recent years. A case could be made not to bother. Maybe next year I will try and look at the race a few days before with my normal ‘3m+ handicap chase’ eyes on, and then do the stats shortlist as usual. The more you look at him, the more obvious One For Arthur was. Arguably the best recent staying chase form on show, proven over the fences and looked a dour stayer where ground would be no problem. Rather straight forward really.  I did think though that he may get too far back and the race may get away from him, as I did with Cause of Causes! So, I got that wrong. Maybe they just went really hard up front on that ground. Blacklion ran a stormer and I thought I may have picked the winner there for most of the final 3rd. Not sure if Noel had a choice but to go on, but he didn’t push him hard early,just sat, and I think maybe that is the best he is/possibly didn’t stay. I would aim him at the Becher Chase for sure- jumped well, travelled into it so well just off the pace. And the stats ‘shortlist’ did find the 2nd, 4th and 5th at 80/1, so some validity there. Thunder And Roses- well that was frustrating as he was into a great rhythm in 3rd/4th, before a loose horse knocked the jockey out the side door. Stamina wouldn’t have been a problem and IF he had jumped the rest like he had up to that point, I am confident he would have been top 5. But, that’s the National for you.  

Still, I would have bitten your hand off for two nice winners from six races and +20 points on the week. And if you said to me you will do that every festival, that you will never find the National winner but that all horses and jokeys would come back safe and sound every year, I would take that right now. 

Plenty to look ahead to in the coming weeks, the fun never stops in this game. 

For now…

 

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Handicap Chase

2.45 Ffos Las – Baraza

 

Pam Sly (any odds)

3.00 MR – Bonnets Vino

 

**

That is all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • There is a small trends race at Ffos Las today (3.55) which for me gives Abricot De Loasis for the Skeltons, a possible chance of a win

    currently 9/1 with a few bookies so the each way value is available….others that tick the correct trend boxes are Wuff, Upswing and Henllan Harri but the selection is the best priced of this group

    Norman 09/04/17 11:06 AM Reply


  • Well, the Wolverhampton race could not have worked out worse with the bottom two on my scores finishing first and third. Auntie Pam finished 2nd at 16/1 and she was probably the cause of the (to my eyes) rather strange result.

    In effect the shape of the race was influenced by a probably too aggressive ride by Richard Kingscote on Auntie Pam from the widest draw. Campion, Levey, and Faithful Promise, Norton, got involved with Auntie Pam in a pace battle early on and this broke both of them. Cosgrave On Get Even wisely decided not to contest this although he was upsides Auntie Pam after 2f and dropped in on the rail just behind thus getting a good run up the rail in the last furlong on one of the two experienced runners.

    The writing was on the wall for Faithful Promise as soon as she appeared behind the stalls. Small and light behind, a get her out quick to try and nick a soft race job. Campion as suspected was not a better one reflecting the fact that the Hannon’s do not target Wolverhampton. The one to take from the race was Auntie Pam who despite being given an over pressing ride by her jockey stuck on and only gave best inside the final furlong beaten only half a length. Oddly, early last season Richard Kingscote was a little bit too enthusiastic; I think he could have won this easily if he had been content ot just get to the lead from his wide draw and then given her a break, as it is he seemed to try and do it with the throttle fully out all the way.
    Hugh

    alpha2 09/04/17 12:32 PM Reply


  • Well done at Aintree, plenty of winners, plenty of beer available and the girls did not look too bad from my seat? What else could you want? I did back your selections at Aintree as it is your local so thanks for that. I particularly enjoyed Sizing Codelco at 16/1 early. I picked a few winners myself and had a few seconds which was frustrating. I particularly enjoyed Finian’s Oscars win as as well as having a good bet on him he really laid it down and put the rest to sleep.

    I did not have a bet in the national but put my mum onto cause of causes as he was always bound to stay if he got round.

    I am busy sweating Jordan Speith later in The Masters for a four figure win.

    Remember what I said re the Clive Cox 2YO’s being good.

    Good luck going forward.

    Martin Colwell 09/04/17 1:24 PM Reply


    • Cheers Martin. A superb three days, plenty of wonderful sights!! 🙂 Aintree is usually a tough punting ground for me, but having said I would take it easy, i did end up putting a fair amount of time in to the 6 tipping races. Worked out well.

      Good luck in the Masters, I always enjoy dipping into the final round. I haven’t bet on it, but would like Rose or Garcia to win!

      Josh 09/04/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • Well I had a nibble on Everton v Leicester both teams to score in the first half……didnt expect my bet to come in so fast!

    Russ Bates 09/04/17 4:52 PM Reply


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