Free Daily Post: 08/04/17 (complete)

Ahhh. Well. A decent two days at Aintree, I can’t complain. Official ‘Tips’ are showing a profit of +12 points and I would have taken that going into Day 3. Rather Be won as I hoped he would, and thankfully, to my eyes at least, Jonjo’s grey in second is a bit of a monkey when it comes to a battle. I had a good go at The World’s End when he hit 10/3 in places, mentioned in dispatches, as well as an EW on the 3rd in that race. He added to ‘at the races’ profits from Flying Angel (15/2) and Dineur (25/1) mentioned in the notes. The Topham… well the stats worked, the ‘shortlist’ of 8 highlighted the 50/1 winner (94 BFSP!) and the 100/1>66/1 3rd. I am not annoyed I didn’t ‘tip’ them as such, given the shortlist wasn’t so short. A bit different to Flying Tiger who was on a ‘bombproof’ stats shortlist of 3 at Cheltenham.  Clearly I didn’t make a case for them. I am more annoyed I didn’t throw £5 at the winner on the machine, just in case. But I didn’t. Not a penny on. But, I can’t be greedy. The pins will land on enough of those over time. My unique approach to ‘the stats’ seems to be working when it comes to shortlisting. That means we always have hope. I’m glad some of you had a nibble. 

**

The Grand National

TIPS 

Saphir Du Rheu – 1/2 point EW, +1/2 point win (or 1 point win,1/2 place) 22/1 (general)

Thunder And Roses – 1/2 point EW, +1/2 point win – 33/1 (general)

Blacklion – 1 point win – 14/1, 16/1 (general) (BFSP may be best,unless want to use an offer of sorts)

(4 points total)

I have a shocking record in this race in the 9 years or so I have been a racing nut, although i did go close with Sunnyhillboy. That is the closest I have come. Having said that I have never attacked it quite like this so we shall see.

Anyway, stats wise, you know they are on the shortlist of 10 as below.

Saphir De Rheu – on my stats I cannot fault him, at all. I have used a few other filters looking at those 10 and he doesn’t fall down on anything at all, from what I can see. I may have missed something of course. It is then just a question of whether he jumps around and he stays- but you can say that for most of the field really. He may fall. He may clout the first. Or, this kind of test makes him put in the best display of his career- and that Gold Cup run was decent. He races prominently enough and if he can get into a rhythm he could run a big race. It would be fitting for Nicholls to win the trainer’s championship by winning this pot.

Thunder And Roses– well he ticks a lot of boxes and the fact he wears cheekpieces is the only ‘negative’, but he is used to them and has run well in big fields with them on. He is an Irish National winner and I would be surprised if a lack of stamina is what finds him out here.  He races prominently which is a positive and with any luck can hold a position on this ground. They will have watered (sprinkler system over the whole National Course) and at these kind of prices I won’t leave one on a ground niggle alone. He has good form on yielding and I don’t think that will be an excuse. He races in the Becher chase in 2015 and tried to take one fence with him so we shall see. He is with a master trainer now though and we know he can prepare one for this test. We had Leighton winning two on the spin, is it now the turn of Morris. Anyway he ticks plenty of boxes and if he has an error free round + usual luck in running I would hope he is in the top 5.

Blacklion– well he falls down on not having had 5+ handicap chase runs- but Many Clouds broke that duck, now 1/111, and given this race is becoming more classy, that is just the kind of stat that may mean nothing in another few years. Anyway, that is his only negative, if it is one at all. He ticks plenty of boxes and does have a touch of class. He has looked like a go at a marathon trip could bring out more in him. Twister knows how to win this race, having done so twice in the last 20 years and this prominent racer could go well. Again, the fences are an unknown but he is a decent jumper of a regulation fence. He is small enough I suppose but does have the heart of a lion and if it is obvious he has taken to the fences, he should be thereabouts, at least until 4 miles or so, then who knows.

Of the rest… well I dare say I will throw £2.5s and £5s at a few on the shortlist that are massive prices.

The likes of Cause of Casuses and Lord Windamere are usually proper hold up rides/not quick enough to race prominently. That is a big negative around here for me, esp on decent ground where they will go fairly hard and a few in the front third never really stop. At 14s I was happy to leave CofC but he may go close. He ran poorly in this as a 7 year old a couple of years back. Tenor Nivernais falls down on the ‘no run over 25.5f+’ stat,and no win over 25f+. Despite his big price I am going to say he wont stay! (Still £2 BFSP I suspect!) Likewise Houblon hasn’t won over 25f+ (although that stat now 1/156, not a 0 from x) and I do think he wants it deeper. He looks a bit of a plodder these days, and this isn’t a race for the plodders anymore really. (again, a ‘just in case’ nibble). This race is very classy now, packed with previous G1 + G2 winners/placed horses. I don’t think the likes of Gas Line Boy and Good To Know will be good enough- class 2 animals at best maybe. Neither of those could do what any of the three above have done in G1s/2s/3s, not for me. I may have that wrong of course.

Clearly we all know that the winner hasn’t even been mentioned on this blog but you know below why my pin was never destined to be near anything else. This approach works for me in general, and I won’t abandon it now. (maybe next year I will if they all tail off)

 

**

I have a ‘shortlist’ of 10! Before revealing those, let’s have a look at the stats I have used…

  • 11-10 or more a neg (0/39,5p last 20 years) 
  • Aged 8-12 (6+7 yo 0/50,0p last 20 years) (12+, 0/36,2p last 10) 
  • Ran within last 60 Days  (61+, 0/143,11p last 20 years) 
  • 3+ runs this season (0-2 are 0/185,15p last 20 years) 
  • Top 8 LTO or DNF (9th worse but completed, 0/67,4p last 10 years) (20/20 also Top 8 LTO or DNF) 
  • Bottom Weights/inc joint (0/29,0p) 
  • 10 or more chase runs (9 or fewer, 0/72,5p 10 years) 
  • 5 or more career wins (4<, 0/125,12p 10 years)
  • 0-4 handicap wins (5+, 0/48,4p, 10 years) 
  • Won C2+ (0/35,1p had not, 10 years)
  • 6+ places (inc wins) in chases (5<, 0/116,5p last 10 years) 
  • Ran C1 or 2 LTO (C3<, 0/53,2p) 

 

Those are what I have used to guide me. If something wins that goes against any of those stats then so be it. This will be yet another year where I was never destined to find the winner, and if this goes to pot maybe I won’t bother with stats next year. But, if they hold up, then the winner is coming from the following 10 I believe…

 

Saphir Du Rheu (20/1)/ Wonderful Charm (40/1)/ Tenor Nivernais (50/1) / Blacklion (14/1) / Cause of Causes (14/1) / Houblon Des Obeaux (50/1)/ Lord Windermere (50/1) / Thunder And Roses (33/1) / Gas Line Boy (80/1)/ Good To Know (100/1) 

**

**

Other Tips 

1.45 Aintree

Duke Street – 1 point win – 14/1 (WH/BV/SportB) 12/1 (general)

No Comment – 1 point win – 12/1 (SJ/BB) 10/1 (general)

 

I used 6 stats or so to narrow this down to around 10 runners, and then a further 4 or 5 pointers, and some aintree micro angles/stats in my normal Members post to bolster confidence. The stats suggest this race usually goes to one thoroughly unexposed at the distance, often having never ran over 3m, or no further than 2m6f in their career to date.

No Comment – is a perfect stats fit. The only negative is that Hobbs is 0/15,1p in the race but given he hits everything else, and ran well LTO from the back, in a race where is paid to be handy, I had to have a dart. Gerraghty’s choice also. He also ticks two ‘race micros’ of never having run beyond 2,6f before and having only had 1 handicap hurdle run before.

Duke Street – again he ticks all my main boxes and he is unexposed over this distance. Of interest that STD has been booked to ride. He has been running well in decent enough races and is worth a go at this distance. He may not stay. No Comment may not stay. Or it will be the making of the pair.

Mr McGo – he was high on my list of the first lot of stats I used, but falls down on a few others. But, at his price, I have had some change on at BFSP. Handicap debutants have  a very poor record in this race over the last 10 years, as do those that ran in non-handicaps LTO.

Again, I may not have mentioned the winner! Others on my main shortlist: Briery Queen / Golden Doyen / Morello Royale / Fountains Windfall / For Good Measure / What A Night

We know how this goes…

**

 

3.40 Aintree

Knock House – 1 point win – 18/1 (general)

Sizing Codelco – 1 point win – 16/1 (general)

Potters Legend – 1 point win – 10/1 (general)

 

Stats profile: Not PU LTO / 0-1 handicap chase wins / 0-1 wins this season / Run at G3 level or above / C1 or 2 LTO

If I am correct that leaves Knock House and Sizing Codelco. The only two to hit that profile. As simple as that. Given their odds I have just gone with them. Conditions are ideal for Knock House- a small niggle if he is good enough for a C2, but he is 18s, and I will pay to find out given his stats fit. Sizing Codelco is unexposed at this trip and ran well to a point over 26f at Cheltenham in a bog. He should be right in the van here, and with better ground and a flatter finish, could go close. The yard/connections couldn’t be in better form.

Potters Legend- well I backed/tipped him at the Festival and were he to win here without being tipped I would be furious. He wasn’t given the best ride, probably not helped by the standing start. In any case he was held up right out the back and given the ground he had to make up he ran a fine race. He can hit the odd fence but if he could be ridden close to the pace that would help. He is a dour stayer and at a double figure price I had to have a go – it worked for Rather Be and The World’s End- Festival losses returned with plenty of interest! He falls down on a couple of stats but it isn’t the strongest of stats races, a lot of those I have used were 0/45,8 places type stats, which are no 0/80,1p, 0/150+ etc. So, I may not have mentioned the winner, again.

The fav looks very interesting and he could blitz these from the front, much like the il-fated Arzal did for them last year, in another race. But 6s is short for one without any big field chase experience. That won’t matter if he never sees another horse of course. And that is possible. But, I had to take him on.

I will mention Henri Parry Morgan, who is becoming very frustrating over fences. His mark is plummeting and he will hack up in a handicap chase one day, maybe today. He just has too many questions for me now, especially in a big field where he can get surrounded. But I have a feeling he may go very close here. I didn’t want to tip 4 in this, but I may not be able to stop myself throwing £5 (1/4 of a tipping point for me) at him on the Tote, track side. That may just about cover any losses on the other three if he does put it all together.

 

OTHER RACES

thoughts to follow…

5.15 Aintree

I haven’t bothered looking at any stats for this and won’t be ‘tipping’ in it.

From my Members Post there are a handful that crop up in my Aintree micros and a qualifier for the #1 strategy from my trainer stats. In order of preference I have/will be backing… Born Survivor (was 10s+ most of last night/this morning)/ Wakea / Vosnae Romanee / Aminabad . The last two are proper pokes, but will have some of my money on.

 

That’s the lot for Aintree. No thoughts on anything else!

Good luck with whatever you go with and please, don’t let anything on this page put you off your National fancy. If ever there is a race in which to ignore stats obsessives like me, it is probably this one!

**

 

**

Normal content…

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1<) 

5.15 Aintree- Bishops Road

 

Saturday Trainer/jockey Combo (14/1<)

3.40 Aintree – Lamb or Cod

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

1.45 Aintree – Barney Dwan (12/1< guide)

5.15 Aintree- Bishops Road (12/1<)

 

***

That’s the lot. Post complete.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • Ho Josh

    Well done again mate. Maybe I’ve had too much prosecco tonight but that looks like a horrible looking shortlist so no doubt the winner will come out of that. Houblon looks the only decent one and he wants it softer. I still think the lack of headgear is a crucial trend. I am still personally happy with Ucello Conti and Raz de Maree. Best of luck in whatever you tip tomorrow. I will be backing as usual. Do try and tip some e/w so I can make full use of the amazing Bet365 offer.

    Regards
    Nick

    nickmazur 07/04/17 11:19 PM Reply


    • Hi even not Ho lol

      nickmazur 07/04/17 11:21 PM Reply


    • Ha cheers. I don’t expect to find the winner really. I don’t have a great record in the race and no doubt if I attacked it cold I wouldn’t be anywhere near any of those! It feels a strange old year. We shall see! My eyes are done for the evening.

      Josh 07/04/17 11:24 PM Reply


  • I’ve narrowed the stats down to Blaklion,Cause of Causes,Perfect Candidate and Gas Line Boy.
    Backed them all ew for a bit of interest.

    Col 07/04/17 11:50 PM Reply


    • Josh.
      As you will see the stats provided me with the 2nd 4th and the 5th which I backed ew At 80/1.
      What can I say?
      Thanks mate.

      Col 08/04/17 8:06 PM Reply


      • Great stuff, superb use of the stats! They held up well on the whole, Blacklion gave me a rush until the last so won’t complain. Had change on the 5th,not EW sadly! Bar the winner the stats did ok! And he broke a monster one so there we go. Without stats I may have been near to him as with a 3m+ chase head on he looked very solid. Great race. All back safe. +20 points on tips so I won’t be geedy! Great 3 days.

        Josh 08/04/17 9:16 PM Reply


  • Heart says Perfect Candidate or Saint Are and head says One For Arthur; Vieux Lion Rouge or Vicente – so I will have a small e/w poke on those 5 for a bit of fun and pray PFN wins race and Trainers Title.

    Ian 08/04/17 6:37 AM Reply


    • Not my sort of race as I would not risk money on it due to its random volatility. I know Leighton Aspell vaguely and so would want him to go well as he always rides the course well. Lord Windermere I believe? Good luck to you all anyway.

      The other races seem hard when I looked. I will likely have a few bets when the racing gets under way.

      Martin Colwell 08/04/17 11:16 AM Reply


    • Why would you want Nicholls to win trainers title. Hendo is different gravy to him

      Roddo 08/04/17 12:21 PM Reply


      • Roddo, Nicholls was a decent jockey, started with nothing but a few cast off horses and an old barn, Henderson was born with s silver spoon in his mouth. Nicholls is open and honest and to my knowledge never drugged a horse, let alone one belonging to the Queen.

        ian 08/04/17 8:15 PM Reply


        • Ian, Dont let the truth get in the way of a good story. That old barn Nicholls got was owned by a certain Mr Barber who was and still is seriously rich. He soon sent good horses to Nicholls and set him on his way. It now seems the friendship is cooling a little. Nicky did transgress the rules for administering an anti bleeding drug to a mare of the queens. He claims to this day it was in the interests of horse welfare and i have to agree as the horse was a bleeder and the owner still has horses with him.
          I had the pleasure of interviewing Nicky for Bredwinner in the early eighties and i can say he was an absolute gentleman and couldnt do enough to make you welcome. Nicholls comes across as this friendly pro media man but has a terrible temper. A man i know had an acquired brain injury and joined a syndicate in a horse at Nicholls. he claims Nicholls was not interested in them as the horse was moderate. He also has a problem with keeping it in his trousers and has currently left is third wife for a younger model. Like i said the man has no class,is not in the same league as Hendo and there are signs that the quality in his stable is diminishing. The well to do like to support their own and Nicholls will have difficulty getting into that gang. Hendo as you rightly said was born into it and i would prefer somebody from the lower ranks to be pressing but not the hot tempered,im superior,casanova Nicholls.

          Roddo 09/04/17 8:07 AM Reply


          • Roddo, you are entitled to your opinion as am I; or anyone else.

            I have no view on whether Nicholls or anyone else has an eye for the ladies.

            What I do have a view on is cheating, and the episode you refer to, and don’t deny, is not the only transgression that Henderson has made over the years. He is indeed the only Trainer I can recall who was told by the BHA to take a horse out of a race, before the race, as if it didn’t it would not pass the obligatory tests.

            He clearly has friends in very high places.

            Ian 09/04/17 9:23 AM Reply


    • disappointed that PFN horse didn’t win but very nice return from One For Arthur; Saint Are (what a trier) and Vieux Lion Rouge, best of all they all came home safe!

      ian 08/04/17 8:19 PM Reply


  • Martin, I replied with my thoughts on your potential 2yo on yesterday’s thread.
    Hugh

    alpha2 08/04/17 7:36 AM Reply


    • thanks Hugh ,have read and replied.

      martin whittle 08/04/17 7:40 AM Reply


  • Would love to see Paddy and Perfect Candidate win,provided RTP with many a big one this season.

    gearoid180468 08/04/17 7:45 AM Reply


  • I’m definitely having a saver on Lord W. with B365 (main bet Saint Are 50/1). Low rating for a GC winner and has faster conditions compared to previous try under top weight.
    Starting the day with Leoncavallo, a stayer trying 3m for the first time.
    Lamb or Cod 340 needs quick conditions at 3m+ and is 4/5 when DJ up, so 28/1 is big
    In the last, John Constable, has to reproduce last season’s Scottish Champion H. form to win.
    Have a great Saturday night, celebrating your winnings 🙂

    chrisrees 08/04/17 7:55 AM Reply


    • Leighton said that he would ride it, or try to, ride it out of trouble and then see if he wants to go forward later in the race? Lord W has been out of form but has dropped in the weights and may well like the ground. The issue is does Lord W still want to do it?

      Martin Colwell 08/04/17 12:45 PM Reply


  • Hi all don’t post very often firstly I would just like to say how much I enjoy racing to profit and would certainly recommend people become members of the site.i have a share in one at dr newlands yard and do know they are expecting a big run from duke street today it’s got its ground and has been screaming out for 3 miles,good luck all have a good one

    thomasson67 08/04/17 7:57 AM Reply


  • It may be the the most famous race in the world today but the 2yo fillies maiden at Wolverhampton should not be forgotten.

    I will post up my review of my trip to Leicester tomorrow, hopefully with some photographs if Josh and I can get the how to sorted.

    In the National I am going with winners of the Scottish and Irish Nationals and previous victors over the big fences so
    Thunder & Roses
    Vicente
    Highland Lodge (worried ground will be too fast)
    Vieux Lion Rouge

    8th April Wolverhampton 5f Fillies Novice
    4.25 Auntie Pam, Faithful Promise, Mraseel
    3.75 Campion
    3.5 Hypnotic Dancer
    3 Diamond Pursuit, Felisa, Hellovaqueen, Yogi’s Girl
    2.75 Get Even
    2.25 Aquadabra
    Preview – At the moment Get even heads the market, this is due to the form of 2nd in a race in France on 23rd March. The third was Jurisprudance who went of fav for D1 of The Brocklesby and finished unplaced. Looks poor form and a false favourite to me. The other with previous form is Hellovaqueen, 4th for Turner in D2 of The Brocklesby. Next in the market is Campion for the Hannons, they don’t seem to target Wolverhampton much for early 2yo wins so there is a chance this is a moderate one.
    Geegeez draw analyser suggests high or low prominent racers are best which suggests that the top four scorers above all have a good chance with jockeys capable of getting their mounts away well. The pilots of the top three are imo the best 2yo jocks in the race. Hellovaqueen is drawn in 1 and with normal improvement from debut could easily get involved despite her jockey.
    Given the way Mark Johnston’s 2yos have mopped up the first few races in the last couple of years then Faithful Promise in stall 2 with Franny Norton up looks most interesting at this stage with perhaps Mraseel as the biggest danger although there does not seem to be much support for her.
    Hugh

    alpha2 08/04/17 8:33 AM Reply


    • Hi Hugh,
      Read this about the Johnson yard regarding there 2yr olds last week.

      The Brocklesby will be run in two divisions of 11 despite the maximum field limit being 22. Interesting that there are no Mark Johnston representatives in either division as he has won the last two runnings which coincided with a change of stable policy to get their 2yos out early and firing. However, his assistant has warned us that won’t be the case this time as they don’t have quite so many 2yos and they were later in so don’t expect the same early barrage of the 2yo scene from them as in the last couple of years.

      ian straker 08/04/17 11:13 AM Reply


    • I heard from someone, maybe here?, that Clive Cox had a good set of 2YO’s. Shortly before racing yesterday I saw one in the first race at Leicester, got on at 8’1, and it romped home. Suggest his 2YO’s are backed until the bookies wise up to it maybe?

      Martin Colwell 08/04/17 12:50 PM Reply


  • don’t think I can do 10 horses on the national Josh, too many for me, but like causes of causes and may do Vicente, it’s a massive lottery though

    Madmarvel 08/04/17 8:50 AM Reply


    • I am just about to try and narrow it down, it is a bit too many for my comfort! It is such a lottery, another stats busting year no doubt but this exact same appraoch has won me/any followers around +80 odd points in the last 25 days since start of Chelts, and I can’t go abandoning it now for this one. We shall see if I can narrow it down or if anything else jumps out.

      Josh 08/04/17 8:52 AM Reply


      • thought about the headgear, tongue-tie being something slightly different, and have decided that Lord Windermere is the best of the 10 horses. Still not sure about Blaklion & Noel Fehily as the jockey + a change of jockey for Tenor Nivernais, Treadwell out and Coleman takes the ride and now he is another with similar stats to Fehily…not ridden a Hcap Chase Aintree Festival winner for more than 6 years

        of the others in the 10 list, all have been backed on Betfair using GRUSS software which allows lower stakes than the normal £2….even Blaklion carries a few pennies !!

        2 others pop up on trends for a long way…Definitly Red and Ucello Conti and I had backed Double Shuffle (tipped by Gary Nutting)…so it could be a wheelbarrow or…a paper bag to carry away the winnings

        Norman 08/04/17 9:56 AM Reply


  • Hi all,
    Could someone clarify which horse was recently purchased by the ‘Thompsons’ Le Mercury or our old friend Highland Lodge.

    Good luck all

    jarrodholmes68 08/04/17 9:29 AM Reply


    • Both of those and Just a Par as well. They must be obsessed.
      Hugh

      alpha2 08/04/17 10:13 AM Reply


  • Hello Josh,

    Having been through several filters (found your career wins and handicap wins stats informative) I’ve narrowed it down to Gas Line Boy. Slight negative is he wears a visor but he’s won with one fitted before.
    Main hope is they all come back OK.
    Steve

    sjwhitelaw 08/04/17 9:46 AM Reply


  • Oh my gauld!, you’ve tipped my horse!

    Paul Cockerill 08/04/17 12:20 PM Reply


  • Hi all.
    As last year, I have taken some EW on Ballynagour and before every one scrolls on down there is some back class runs to recommend him. He was starting to get into it last year when he came down and despite three Ps next to his name and broken blood vessel history there is still a nagging feeling that this is his time of year and he is 9 pounds lower than a year ago.
    BOL

    Tom

    fingers 08/04/17 1:14 PM Reply


  • My bets

    1:45 Barney Dwan,Duke Street 2:25 Messire Des Obeaux
    3:40 Potters Legend Our Kaempfer
    4:20 Taquin Du Seuil Supasundae
    5:15 Stellar Notion Saphir Du Rheu Highland Lodge Perfect Candidate One For Arthur
    Blaklion is to short by my opinion

    but still there is The Last Samuri and Rogue Angel

    Pab 08/04/17 1:16 PM Reply


  • Had a fantastic day at Aintree yester day including winners at 4/1…29/1…50/1….got blasted. Head hurts.. my today short list for the National.
    all good prices.
    Perfect Candidate…..The Young Master…..Thunder and Roses…..Just a Par..
    Lord Windermere…..O’Failins Boy…Cause of Causes….Tenor Ninervais…
    Wonderful Charm…
    I’m ignoring all the hot shots…. but I would love Paddy and Frgal to get the winner. He owes us all nothing.

    Tony Mc 08/04/17 1:27 PM Reply


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