Members Daily Post: 04/04/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

All ratings pointers now complete…

Jumps

Kempton

3.40 – Bugsie Malone (hncp chase) 30 H1 7/2 2nd 

4.10 – Silent Steps (all hncps + micro hncp hurdle debut) 14 13/2 2nd 13/2

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of the Day… (test: 6/18,+34 points)

3.40 4.10 Kempton- Silent Steps – 1 point win (13/2 general) 2nd 13/2… Oh well that winner is still way ahead of the handicapper and clearly her recent busy schedule hasn’t left a mark. 

Well you should never fear a short priced fav so we will take her on here with this one, who ‘could be anything’ over this sort of distance. 13/2 just about allows a play for me I think. Recent winners that have been a decent price, well some of them, have had that ‘doing something different’ profile about them- Kirby’s 16/1 winner was making handicap debut and taking a drop in trip. Hobbs’ St Saviour was dropping in trip and had a headgear change. Both were fairly lightly raced over hurdles, much like this one. She hasn’t been short prices in her novice hurdles which makes you think she was never intended to run well, as was the fact that Fehily wasn’t on- i believe he is retained by these owners, or in any case has first refusal. He is back on board today and that is a positive. This trip should bring about improvement and she could just be better than all those in here, or not good enough. But, at 13/2 I will pay to find out.

 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

nothing today. The next two days will be spent reviewing results + preparing for Aintree.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Hello, i’m new to your blog, but have studied the past 3 months of the info you gave and i am pretty amased. Hopefully i will be able to progress forward

    Jay 03/04/17 6:42 PM Reply


    • Hi Jay, sorry for delay… Just been updating results and that post will be worth a flick through..but yes results, on the Jumps stats, have been rather mad since October really, and the #1 advised strategy as per welcome email has been doing very well – a great foundation although we are due a losing run soon!
      As with anything just take your time to get to grips with the content.
      I am confident in time you will be a better punter than when you started, and this club has a mix of ‘off the shelf’ strategies/systems as well as allowing you the freedom to impart your own views/approach etc. I think it is a good mix and any long term patience has been rewarded so far.
      Start off paper trading/sensible stakes etc – many members have an enjoyable/profitable time betting in 2s/5s etc.
      enjoy, and any questions then post a comment or drop me an email,
      Josh

      Josh 04/04/17 2:31 PM Reply


  • Thehossbehind (won yesterday) bfsp was 11.1. I missed it, damn

    JamesM 04/04/17 9:42 AM Reply


    • Ah, that is annoying. I was out most of yesterday and had a pleasant surprise when just checking my Betfair account just now- saw that he won at 7s but assume he didn’t hit 11.00 which I had set. Tricky one- can see why you may not have bothered on morning prices, assuming he wound’t drift. Painful lesson, but if in doubt next time, set the price.
      There will be more where those have come from, April seems to have started where March left off!
      Josh

      Josh 04/04/17 9:54 AM Reply


  • Josh, a stable contact told me this morning that Silent Steps is only moderate and isn’t a bet, whereas Laurium will be suited by the better going today and is well fancied and preferred over Bivouac. I can’t vouch for the source as it is new but, as I had backed SS last night (not expecting this info), it is unwelcome 🙁

    chrisrees 04/04/17 10:04 AM Reply


    • Ah, well, we shall see! I am not one for stable contacts – if I had listened to Kim Bailey before his 16/1 huntingdon winner for us on the ‘RP 10/1+’ strategy, I wouldn’t have had a bet- ‘slow, can’t jump,worse workhorse in the yard’ etc- and he was the trainer, and he didn’t expect much!
      She may well be only moderate, but she is probably only up against a moderate bunch! Anyway, my money is down, so we shall see. That is moderate in comparison to Hendos others, and he cant have many moderate horses!
      From time I have spent in a few Newmarket pubs the odd time over the summer when I get back home, I am comfortable saying I can read a horse/race better than 80% of stable staff etc ! They know their own horses, but not all the other oppo. Best trusting your own eyes- or in any case, never bet ‘put off’ by what a contact may say. By all means have confidence boosted etc, but never be put off one.

      Having said that, clearly there are some judges, but they are usually only good at assessing their own horses, and not the oppo. If you find a contact you can trust then good on you, all info adds to the mix- in general I find most of it to be bollocks, depending on the source! 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 04/04/17 10:10 AM Reply


      • I’m surprised by that comment but than again 99% of info is generally useless IMHO. Not sure if you had a look at my write up for the horse but going by her PtP win over horses which are now rated much higher this is very much her ideal conditions.

        Nick Mazur 04/04/17 2:05 PM Reply


        • Quite. Well, just depends what the source is and their relationship to the yard- but the horses surprise the trainers often enough so always best using your own judgement on what info is available. In fairness martin and others have been pointed to some biggies, so clearly the odd contact can be useful, but in general, most only know their horses and can’t place them in context of oppo.
          She was worth a go at 6/1, 13/2 + in what looks a 3 horse race. Who knows what Jonjo’s has beaten and on paper this trip looks interesting for Hendos. Time will tell!
          GL

          Josh 04/04/17 2:33 PM Reply


          • Just remembered we (or some) backed Beautiful People a couple of months ago and ran an OK race at Taunton. Seems a reasonable price here.

            Stephen Cross 04/04/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • I can’t see past Cloudy Bob in 1540 Kempton.

    Marcin Sudol 04/04/17 12:32 PM Reply


    • Well done Marcin, did that well.

      Josh 04/04/17 4:26 PM Reply


      • Nice to get one now and again.
        Cheers Josh

        Marcin Sudol 04/04/17 5:58 PM Reply


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