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  • A quiet Monday evening and I decide to work through the National stats.
    After much clicking, checking and dismissing I was left with a list of 6.

    The Young Master
    Definitely Red
    Cause of Causes
    Vicente
    Lamb or Cod
    Milborough

    I think the last two will struggle to get a run & I think L or C will run in the hcp earlier on the card. Milborough is too far down the runner list to get in.

    The Young Master on first glance was very appealing however its record without headgear is woeful as it usually requires cheekpieces so I’ve looked past that too.

    My final three is Deffo Red, CoC & Vicente. 🙂

    andy 03/04/17 8:48 PM Reply


    • Defo Red will not stay. Cause of Causes should. What about the other Gigginstown horses? It worked last year.

      Martin Colwell 03/04/17 10:09 PM Reply


  • Getting back into form just in time for the big one although yesterday was brutally cruel with Bob Tucker and Muntadab more than halving in price and just failing to win (what makes it worse was I spotted Muntadab was well treated at one of the Ayr Cups and I missed the fucker at 33s at the back end of last year because I was on holiday)

    A couple for me tomorrow. Firstly I like the look of Bronco Billy in the 15:40 at Kempton. Jonjo is in better form than he has been all season. The 2nd in his last race has won 2 on the spin. Fehily is 2/7, 6p when riding for Jonjo in handicaps this year. He should be able to ride him prominently just behind the leaders tomorrow. 11/1 looked a decent e/w bet.

    I also like Silent Steps in the 16:10 at Kempton. She makes her handicap debut for the smoking hot Henderson yard and the step up to 3miles on Good ground should help given she won here PtP over the same trip and ground beaten the likes off Coilette Lass (now a 140 rated mare for Nicholls who got within 7 lengths of VVM this season) and Quenns Well (got within 2 lengths off Colin’s Sister who has won a class 1 this year and is rated 135). Irish pointing expert Declan Phelan pointed her out as a horse to follow in Mark Howard’s book. She has also beaten the odds on favourite in their novice days. Given the fav is odds on and takes up a massive chunk of the market she makes a great e/w bet and I expect her to go close.

    I havent fully decided on my Grand National picks but barring the ground being soft or worse (I cant see it) I will be going with Ucello Conti and Raz de Maree. Might add another one near the time.

    Nick Mazur 03/04/17 9:28 PM Reply


    • I backed Saint Are at 50/1 this morning in view of the drying going (confirmed by the clerk this afternoon). Tom George v. positive about his current wellbeing, saying he will run as well as when 2nd to Many Clouds two years ago (going was soft in 2016), and Davy Russell booked too.
      40/1, 5 places now.

      chrisrees 03/04/17 9:59 PM Reply


      • I would say going was more like heavy in 2016 and all of Ucello’s best form in France was on better ground (2/2 on good/firm even) not to mention Elliott cocked up by not giving him a prep in March last year yet he still finished 6th. Plus Jacob seems to have realised he needs to be ridden a little closer to the front. He also is better at the weights compared to half the front 8 in the market on his Becher run.

        Nick Mazur 03/04/17 10:08 PM Reply


    • I do not mind Raz De Mee but is a bit old on the stats. Not a very good race this year but something has to win it.

      Martin Colwell 03/04/17 10:13 PM Reply


      • A little older than ideal but Cromwell has really rejuvenated him and he is lightly raced for a 12 year old and has only had 20 chase runs. You don’t want to be D’ellarcing him just yet mate 😉

        Nick Mazur 03/04/17 10:19 PM Reply


        • Ah Yes the Dell Arca faux pas at Sunday lunchtime! You cant win them all and there is always a time when you have egg on your face.

          My crystal ball sees Jamie Codd (The Codfather) riding a stormer in the GN. I like the spectacle of the race but it is not a race for a large bet.

          Martin Colwell 03/04/17 10:29 PM Reply


          • Sorry Martin I didn’t mean any offence and promise not to bring it up again mate.

            Nick Mazur 04/04/17 12:57 AM Reply


            • Dell Arca’s ‘brother’ goes in the National, wrote some thoughts in yesterdays members section but suspect no one read it so will republish…..

              Ballynagour

              n amount of ability, though same as DA hasn’t consistently shown it
              Was going OK still when unseating around the 16th last year
              With 10-11 may feel like running loose
              Last 3 Ps may be misleading, there is some evidence that may prefer the spring/summer months
              If last named is true – looks like we’re in for a week of sunshine which can only help
              Fits an old Nick Mordin profile of ‘between 10-4 and 11 or thereabouts’ and capable of running close to Grade 1
              Little more than 18 months ago was running a few lengths behind Cue Card in the Charlie Hall (and interestingly was held up fairly heavily detached)
              2 years ago was running a head behind Sylvianico Conti
              If Scudamore is on VLR, then Noonan may be up on Ballynagour
              Every chance this has been the real target since April last year
              Has run well off breaks (evidence to suggest fragile, but sometimes the talented ones are) and rested since Jan
              Probably deliberately rested over Cheltenham, can’t remember for sure but think was originally declared for the big handicaps
              66-1 generally now, 120 a week ago on BF but that was down to around 85 couple of nights ago

              Bit of a negative on Pipe’s record at Aintree over the years, but the yard seem to be fairly happy with their team this year

              If he runs and gets round, there would be reasonable grounds for thinking he may be close enough at the finish. At the odds there are some far worse options.

              Sunday’s headline…it’s a Pipe 1-2 in the National!?

              Stephen Cross 04/04/17 5:48 AM Reply


            • No offence taken. I should be called out when getting it completely wrong.

              martin colwell 04/04/17 12:58 PM Reply


    • Heavy rain for an hour last evening and more rain overnight, so the prospect of faster going is receding, with cold nights and heavy dew likely, says my scouse contact.

      chrisrees 04/04/17 9:58 AM Reply


      • I’m here too Chris…Aintree dries quite quick and it’s breezy as I write.

        I’m not finished my choices yet.

        BOL all of you.

        tonymc 04/04/17 1:14 PM Reply


        • According to the BHA website ground was good/soft, soft in places yesterday and now good/soft so whatever rain they had yesterday had zero effect since its slightly improved.

          Nick Mazur 04/04/17 5:30 PM Reply


    • Nick, why would you be worried about the ground going soft for Ucello Conti? All his form is soft ground, and I’ve got in my tracker to back in GN if soft ground.
      Jamie

      Jamie 04/04/17 3:50 PM Reply


      • I wouldn’t be worried but if you look at his French form most of his wins have come on Good/Soft to Good/Firm ground (4 wins from 4 runs). His jockey confirmed this as well saying he will improve for the better ground. We know he handles heavy but he should be better for better ground. A bit like all these Irish handicappers we have seen winning at Cheltenham who spent the winter running ok on heavy ground.

        Nick Mazur 04/04/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • awake far to early and with such a dire days racing not much to look at, can’t find anything to take on the favs in the first 3 at Kempton saying that wouldn’t be surprised if any of them get beaten and i’ll be leaving these well alone. Nick has certainly found the best value today with Bronco Billy in the 15:40 and Silent Steps in the 16:10, in the 4:45 A Montmarte looks quite a solid bet @4-1 but Phar Away Island is back out only 5 days after running a stinker lto and with Harry Teal claiming 7 could be worth considering.
    the 5:15 is where i have lost my marbles, Norse Light and Presenting Berkley should fight out the finish but i’m going to have a small ew on Exotic Friend don’t ask me why nothing more than it caught my eye logic is out the window.
    Good luck whatever you back today, roll on Thursday.

    martin whittle 04/04/17 6:10 AM Reply


    • Exotic Friend N/R so that’s saved me a couple of quid 🙂

      martin whittle 04/04/17 10:41 AM Reply


  • Has everyone forgotten HIGHLAND LODGE? Heart of a lion and guts of steel, his Becher chase run reminded me of CLAN ROYAL,the horse who lost the national by veering left before the elbow.
    If he stays, i think he wins, no doubt in my mind!

    Stewart 04/04/17 6:38 AM Reply


    • Looks sure to give a bold run, Stewart. That’s the tricast sorted then!

      Stephen Cross 04/04/17 7:33 AM Reply


  • One that seems to have gone under the radar at Kempton in the 3.40 is Handsome Sam, had a small each way at 10/1. Was pulled up in the race won by Bugsy Malone from Cloudy Bob and Get Involved and may have equal scope to Brono Billy, if not more. The PU was more due a slipping saddle, had been backed in to 11/2 was travelling as sweetly as anything at the time and of course did not have the tough battle up the hill. King Chasers seem to like this Course and looks over-priced to me.

    Re The National, when it is “Good Going” it traditionally brings 3 milers who can hunt round for a circuit and then get in to the race in to the equation. That’s where I’ll have a long hard look if it is Good come Saturday, also a bit confused re Elliott horses given his “blow out” on Saturday/Sunday although many looked like they were running a bit for the sake of it and that wont be the case in the big one.

    I do agree that on Good Going St Are is cracking value a spring horse, good Course record and yard not been far away all season.

    Ian 04/04/17 8:27 AM Reply


  • Spiraea looks wildly overpriced at up to 18-1 2.10 Southwell

    Mr Fenton 3.05 Kempton worth keeping an eye on. Logically can’t beat the odds on fav given that one has form with Elegant Escape (likely to be taking big 3m chases in future in the same vein as Theatre Guide)…but if that one underperforms, Jaisalmer shows he needs soft ground, and the Nicholls horse isn’t mature yet then this could go to an outsider.

    Can’t find a free video, but from memory last race for Mr F (where he could still understandably be learning) fell rapidly back at one point then rallied to at one point look to have a remote chance of catching the leaders. That took its toll and eventually finished well beaten.

    Form of first 2 bumpers suggests the ability is there. Hard to tell if he’s the finished article yet but at 40-1 (and provided doesn’t go up into the 100s on BF) he may be worth a few quid, or watch and hope for a well beaten but promising run and then get a good price later in the spring somewhere.

    Stephen Cross 04/04/17 9:13 AM Reply


    • Nightmare! 40-1 into around 10. Lost what looked like 10 lengths at the start, virtually ran out sideways from a standing start…and still only beat a few lengths!

      Talk about how to stuff a price forever 🙁

      Stephen Cross 04/04/17 3:14 PM Reply


  • For The GN I am on VLR @ 14s, Highland Lodge at 33s and More Of That at 20s all we. Will probably add one more unless I can get my discipline revved up.
    Hugh

    alpha2 04/04/17 10:49 AM Reply


    • We is spellchecked ew

      alpha2 04/04/17 10:51 AM Reply


    • I predict that More Of That and The Red Lion (VLR) will attract a lot of once a year punter cash and so I would get on now. Too much of a monkey for me that More Of That.

      martin colwell 04/04/17 1:00 PM Reply


  • 33/1 for Port Lairge 3.50 S/well Is worth an EW bet…

    tonymc 04/04/17 1:09 PM Reply


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