FREE DAILY POST: 02/04/17 (complete)

Hmm. Well I will take the positives from the Lincoln… the main stats shortlist of 5 included the 20/1 winner (drifted from 14s) 34 BFSP… Gulp. I have no idea why I crossed him out,maybe my eyes were drawn to the biggest priced ones on morning prices but he was still a healthy 14s- first run for O’Meara, who does well with stable switchers- not to back systematically these days, the market has long cottoned on, but it is a positive. And he was just in the ‘could be anything’ category having only his 3rd handicap run having been highly tried. He had the most interesting profile out of the shortlist for sure. Bloody hindsight. The pieces were all there, hopefully I will pull them together next time. I was happy ruling out Heaven’s Guest, which in effect made it a shortlist of 4. 4 points. 1 on each. Easy. Next Time. Moving On…

I had a good go at St Saviour in the Members Post which helped lift my mood, he wasn’t a too shabby 14/1 ISP, 17.5 BFSP. A good day really.

(well done to those of you who backed Bravery, that is the primary point of me doing the research!)

And well done to Hugh who found a nice winner from the two races covered.

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TIPS 

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo– Live Test

4.15 Ascot – Vino Griego (14/1<)

 

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Bonus…

Some TTP Qualifiers from my Doncaster Report… another good day on Saturday with the Jumps Stats, a nice 17.5 BFSP winner for the #1 advised strategy, the only qualifier on the day. A great start for the Summer Jumps stats, now let’s see if the Flat can do the same… (there were none on Saturday…)

From the Members Post..

 

Flat 

Doncaster

1.45 –

Free Code (4yo+)  G3

Zealous (4yo+) 14

3.20 – Handsome Dude (4yo+) 14

4.30-

Another Go (4yo+) 14 G3 

Hanseatic (micro age)

5.35 – Deep Resolve (4yo+) 14 

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

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That will be all for Sunday.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • A quick review of the two divisions of The Brocklesby. D1 looked a very average renewal, D2 possibly a bit better although a marginally slower time. Pre race pictures from ATR not informative. Annoyed not to have mentioned Declan Carroll in preview as he has been capable of occasional debut winners in the past, more usually 2to and this is his first April winner since Auction Time 2to in 2006 as far as I can see.

    Brocklesby Review D1
    The chances of Rocket Man Dan were undone early on, he was a tad slow away and when Beasley asked him to get going he picked up the bit with a vengeance and moved up alongside the runaway Dragon’s Teeth. From then on he was more or less carted for the next two furlongs as well as being carried left by DT. He did ok to not drop out completely in the last furlong and may get an opportunity for a win if he comes out of this ok. The race was run in an average time for the conditions. The pace collapsed at the end allowing several to deep close no doubt flattering their ability. I would be surprised if much comes out of this other than the first two and Rocket Man Dan.

    Brocklesby Review D2
    Gratifying to get this right early in my tenure here. Requinto Dawn looked a class above the rest and won under hands and heels, very small though. The Evans horse, the Love Doctor finished second as had his runner in the first division. Both of his might pick up a small race somewhere later this month at tight odds. Hellovaqueen looked an ok size, maybe a bit burly for a turner horse. Could have finished closer if his jockey could push out at the same time as using his stick. He looked like someone trying to pat his head and rub his stomach at the same time. Black Orange looked well prepared as one would expect from Gay Kelleway and David Egan (7) on top was tidy enough.

    No 2yo action now until Friday 7th at Leicester. Given the Hannon’s form at Doncaster today I have a feeling they may be cleaning up a lot of 2yo races over the next couple of months. They have never bothered with The Brocklesby.

    alpha2 01/04/17 7:21 PM Reply


    • Hugh Is it reasonable to assume that the Evans 2YOs will have been so hard trained that their form is theoretically likely to drop off over time…or does the fact that it was the Brocklesby suggest they may have a longer term future even if they were?

      Stephen Cross 02/04/17 6:09 AM Reply


      • Hi Stephen, I don’t think it is safe to assume much where The Welsh Wizard is concerned. Generally his are cheap smaller types that are so well prepared that they can compete for a place fto in early season maidens against less competent or under-trained rivals. Nick on B2yor used to call them electric mice, wind them up and let them go. On 2to with a bit of racecraft learnt they are even more effective.

        However as his talent becomes more widely recognised he is getting the odd more expensive one and these can win fto.

        As far as form tailing off is concerned, not really, he will keep running the tough ones up to 9 or 10 times in the season and they often pick up another race but forecasting which ones that will be is much more difficult than finding his early season ones.
        Hugh

        alpha2 02/04/17 7:00 AM Reply


        • Thx Hugh

          There will most likely be plenty more questions for the ‘ 2YO expert’ section of RTP. Really looking forward to see how it develops over the season, assuming it’s practical for you to keep posting.

          Stephen Cross 02/04/17 9:45 AM Reply


          • Yes, when I am trekking about all over the country analysing and writing up time will have to have priority. The first three months are the best for my approach as post royal Ascot the sheer numbers of runners become overwhelming.
            Hugh

            alpha2 02/04/17 10:49 AM Reply


            • One last chance for Dell Arca today at Ascot 4.50. At his best was not far short of graded class but sadly has rarely shown true colours – barring in a couple of right handed good class handicaps this and last season (at Kempton and Sandown). In fact virtually threw the race away at Kempton back in Dec. David Noonan wasn’t able to get a tune at Cheltenham, but this appears easier than many the horse has contested and it won’t be a surprise to see a good run with the near obligatory ‘I’m going to jump left under pressure’ the possible killer.

              Race is packed with runners from the top stables with some looking to have reasonable question marks against them. At 16-1 DA can offer the best value. Markov is a worry.

              Stephen Cross 02/04/17 12:21 PM Reply


              • Sorry put this in the wrong place, maybe Josh can move it down

                Stephen Cross 02/04/17 12:22 PM Reply


              • Dont back Dell Arca, it has shot his bolt and they are wasting their time running it. Famous last words?

                I did not see the racing yesterday but was against Yuften at the price. A horse that was running for the bookies and was well over rated. Punters should not be fooled into these bookmaker campaigns to get so called tipsters to say that it is a group horse in a handicap and so take any price. They are trying to con punters. Rant over.

                Martin Colwell 02/04/17 1:03 PM Reply


                • Famous indeed lol

                  Nick Mazur 02/04/17 4:59 PM Reply


          • For a man whose prime interest is NH I have, perversely, had a soft spot for 2yo racing for years (back to Spindrifter) and always found many nuggets of insightful info on B2yoR website – first season sire previews etc. So to get Hugh on here will be a real help to any who want to fathom out the 2 yo scene in 2017.

            finalflight 02/04/17 10:54 AM Reply


  • hi josh when you do your trends . is it only for big races /hcps aswell

    russ 01/04/17 9:29 PM Reply


    • Hi Russ.. yep I will try and do one/two big races every Saturday and they are only ever big handicaps- I have no interest in looking at any other races. So for the flat, if there is a bit hertitage handicap, 5-8f I suppose, I will have a look. Josh

      Josh 02/04/17 1:43 PM Reply


  • Tomorrow is nice race at Ascot veterans,No Duffer and Forgotten Gold look good to me

    Pab 01/04/17 10:03 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, not sure why but my login has changed to alpha2 instead of Hugh. I re-installed my computer today so perhaps it has defaulted to an earlier setting. I tried to amend it on the details page but it will not accept the change.
    Hugh

    alpha2 01/04/17 10:58 PM Reply


    • Hi Hugh… not sure why that would be – could be something to do with whether you are logged into Members area or not when posting on free post. It doesn’t really matter as long as you sign off. Josh

      Josh 02/04/17 1:42 PM Reply


  • Fun bets.
    3-20D Muntadab
    3-55D Tawdeea
    5-05 Celestial Spheres
    3x£1ew singles 25p ew patent
    hoping for a quite afternoon so as Donny is on ATR i can watch between getting sunday lunch on, no real reason for selections apart from backing Tawdeea before, interesting jockey bookings on the other 2.

    martin whittle 02/04/17 6:16 AM Reply


  • Should No Duffer drift 4.15 Ascot as the day goes by I might have a nibble,that and the fact that Heskin may not adopt forcing tactics is a little off putting

    gearoid180468 02/04/17 10:30 AM Reply


  • You maybe crossed out Bravery from the final shortlst as I did because although he had placed in one of his last 4 runs it was 4th in a small field so in my view strictly didn’t qualify.I shan’t be so strict in future.

    Colin hudson 02/04/17 10:31 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin, yep I can’t remember what I did but I left him on a working shortlist of 5, and at that point I stop with any further stats research. Clearly 2 hit most of them but I should have given him more consideration,and it was poor that the thinking I wrote above, didn’t go through my mind when looking at him. I was too easy to dismiss. That happens, just need to ensure it doesn’t happen too often! That was another flying tiger all over again. Never mind. If the stats keep shortlisting as they have been we will do fine.

      Josh 02/04/17 1:41 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Turning ahead to next weekend given the lack of rain forecast do you think they’re going to water for next weekend and if so when?

    Regards
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 02/04/17 11:09 AM Reply


    • Hi Nick… in short I have no idea! GN course is generally soft at the moment I think, and they don’t touch that anyway do they/can’t water?…so if no rain then that will be good you would think. And any watering on Mildmay would just be to maintain good. Will be better ground than Festival on days 3/4, can’t think it will ride ‘dead’ but you never know. I would expect proper good ground if there is no rain.
      Josh

      Josh 02/04/17 1:36 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh that’s what I was thinking. I guess there is always the cash-out option if the weather forecast changes completely.

        Nick Mazur 02/04/17 1:43 PM Reply


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